MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2800-0.78%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.24
Volume$440,350
Updated17:03 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — Q3 2024 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q3-2024 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 56 trades would have compounded to a final value of $73,871 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros 56 Trades Completed
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

MOVR — Q3 2024 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Sharpe
12.18
Alpha vs B&H
+625.21pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
+13.50%
Max Drawdown
-3.76%
Avg Drawdown
-4.20%
Sharpe Trend
-8.25
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest

Day-by-day — MOVR — Q3 2024 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
Entry Profit exit Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 56-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+5.26%
Avg Loss
-1.67%
Best Trade
+34.43%
Worst Trade
-3.76%
Avg Bars Held
21.2h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Signal flip: 26 (46%) Forward-pred: 20 (36%) Take-profit: 3 (5%) Short signal: 3 (5%) Trailing stop: 3 (5%) Stop-loss: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +638.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 85.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Robust sample: 56 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +4.43% on 45 trades, WR 84%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 45 84.4% +4.43% +556.00% 22h
BULL 7 85.7% +4.09% +31.84% 22h
BUBBLE 4 100.0% +2.87% +11.97% 11h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 56 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
07 Jul 2024 21:00 08 Jul 2024 08:00 $8.99 $9.44 +4.57% SIDEWAYS 12h
08 Jul 2024 10:00 08 Jul 2024 14:00 $9.47 $9.17 -3.59% SIDEWAYS 5h
08 Jul 2024 16:00 10 Jul 2024 05:00 $9.09 $9.48 +3.97% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
12 Jul 2024 08:00 14 Jul 2024 22:00 $9.24 $10.09 +8.97% SIDEWAYS 2.6d
15 Jul 2024 00:00 15 Jul 2024 02:00 $10.12 $10.34 +1.88% SIDEWAYS 3h
15 Jul 2024 07:00 17 Jul 2024 13:00 $10.83 $11.56 +6.50% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
18 Jul 2024 21:00 20 Jul 2024 14:00 $10.83 $11.80 +8.82% BULL 1.8d
21 Jul 2024 05:00 22 Jul 2024 00:00 $11.48 $12.19 +5.69% BULL 20h
23 Jul 2024 16:00 24 Jul 2024 09:00 $10.87 $11.26 +3.22% BUBBLE 18h
25 Jul 2024 13:00 26 Jul 2024 22:00 $10.19 $11.04 +8.11% BULL 1.4d
27 Jul 2024 17:00 27 Jul 2024 23:00 $10.79 $10.89 +0.79% BULL 7h
28 Jul 2024 21:00 29 Jul 2024 13:00 $10.47 $10.92 +4.11% BULL 17h
31 Jul 2024 05:00 31 Jul 2024 08:00 $9.91 $10.14 +2.13% BUBBLE 4h
31 Jul 2024 11:00 31 Jul 2024 13:00 $10.08 $10.30 +2.02% BUBBLE 3h
01 Aug 2024 05:00 02 Aug 2024 02:00 $9.46 $9.32 -1.63% BUBBLE 22h
03 Aug 2024 01:00 03 Aug 2024 08:00 $8.48 $8.87 +4.43% BULL 8h
04 Aug 2024 02:00 04 Aug 2024 09:00 $8.36 $8.38 -0.11% SIDEWAYS 8h
04 Aug 2024 17:00 04 Aug 2024 19:00 $7.68 $8.13 +5.56% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Aug 2024 02:00 05 Aug 2024 04:00 $6.85 $6.91 +0.61% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Aug 2024 07:00 06 Aug 2024 18:00 $6.64 $7.74 +16.42% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
06 Aug 2024 20:00 07 Aug 2024 01:00 $7.70 $7.89 +2.15% SIDEWAYS 6h
07 Aug 2024 19:00 08 Aug 2024 22:00 $7.36 $8.26 +11.99% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
09 Aug 2024 00:00 09 Aug 2024 02:00 $8.29 $8.19 -1.37% SIDEWAYS 3h
09 Aug 2024 13:00 11 Aug 2024 04:00 $8.03 $8.35 +3.78% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
11 Aug 2024 21:00 13 Aug 2024 02:00 $7.75 $8.32 +7.15% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
13 Aug 2024 11:00 13 Aug 2024 17:00 $8.09 $8.58 +5.81% SIDEWAYS 7h
14 Aug 2024 14:00 14 Aug 2024 16:00 $8.08 $8.20 +1.36% SIDEWAYS 3h
15 Aug 2024 19:00 17 Aug 2024 11:00 $7.72 $7.88 +1.79% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
18 Aug 2024 11:00 18 Aug 2024 12:00 $8.22 $8.30 +0.55% SIDEWAYS 2h
18 Aug 2024 14:00 18 Aug 2024 17:00 $8.26 $8.16 -1.60% SIDEWAYS 4h
19 Aug 2024 01:00 21 Aug 2024 21:00 $7.97 $10.75 +34.43% SIDEWAYS 2.9d
22 Aug 2024 04:00 22 Aug 2024 19:00 $10.35 $10.77 +3.84% SIDEWAYS 16h
22 Aug 2024 23:00 23 Aug 2024 12:00 $10.78 $11.33 +4.83% SIDEWAYS 14h
23 Aug 2024 15:00 24 Aug 2024 12:00 $10.91 $11.82 +8.14% SIDEWAYS 22h
24 Aug 2024 22:00 25 Aug 2024 00:00 $10.95 $10.87 -0.93% SIDEWAYS 3h
27 Aug 2024 22:00 28 Aug 2024 18:00 $9.11 $9.60 +5.21% SIDEWAYS 21h
30 Aug 2024 04:00 30 Aug 2024 09:00 $9.25 $9.39 +1.36% SIDEWAYS 6h
30 Aug 2024 12:00 30 Aug 2024 15:00 $9.19 $8.87 -3.76% SIDEWAYS 4h
30 Aug 2024 17:00 31 Aug 2024 00:00 $9.05 $9.30 +2.63% SIDEWAYS 8h
01 Sep 2024 23:00 03 Sep 2024 01:00 $8.63 $9.32 +7.51% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
03 Sep 2024 17:00 03 Sep 2024 19:00 $8.99 $9.17 +1.61% SIDEWAYS 3h
04 Sep 2024 00:00 04 Sep 2024 21:00 $9.04 $9.22 +1.76% SIDEWAYS 22h
05 Sep 2024 20:00 06 Sep 2024 12:00 $8.65 $9.03 +4.13% SIDEWAYS 17h
06 Sep 2024 21:00 07 Sep 2024 17:00 $8.31 $8.58 +3.02% SIDEWAYS 21h
07 Sep 2024 19:00 11 Sep 2024 01:00 $8.62 $9.15 +5.97% SIDEWAYS 3.3d
11 Sep 2024 06:00 14 Sep 2024 00:00 $9.03 $9.72 +7.37% SIDEWAYS 2.8d
16 Sep 2024 02:00 16 Sep 2024 06:00 $9.30 $9.39 +0.62% SIDEWAYS 5h
16 Sep 2024 13:00 18 Sep 2024 04:00 $9.19 $9.73 +5.54% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
18 Sep 2024 06:00 18 Sep 2024 08:00 $9.62 $9.61 -0.38% SIDEWAYS 3h
18 Sep 2024 12:00 20 Sep 2024 03:00 $9.47 $10.45 +10.10% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
20 Sep 2024 05:00 20 Sep 2024 08:00 $10.52 $10.58 +0.43% SIDEWAYS 4h
20 Sep 2024 17:00 20 Sep 2024 21:00 $10.39 $10.64 +2.20% SIDEWAYS 5h
22 Sep 2024 10:00 23 Sep 2024 12:00 $10.02 $10.36 +3.22% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
23 Sep 2024 14:00 25 Sep 2024 00:00 $10.50 $11.03 +4.86% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
25 Sep 2024 23:00 27 Sep 2024 22:00 $10.48 $11.45 +9.08% SIDEWAYS 2d
29 Sep 2024 02:00 29 Sep 2024 19:00 $11.20 $11.52 +2.41% BULL 18h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

85.7% Win Rate +638.7% Return -3.8% Max Drawdown Net of Fees