MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2530-3.39%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.25
Volume$416,103
Updated14:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — Q3 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q3-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 55 trades would have compounded to a final value of $65,438 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros 55 Trades Completed
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

MOVR — Q3 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Sharpe
13.74
Alpha vs B&H
+552.52pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
+1.86%
Max Drawdown
-2.20%
Avg Drawdown
-3.33%
Sharpe Trend
-3.80
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest

Day-by-day — MOVR — Q3 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
Entry Profit exit Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 55-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+4.60%
Avg Loss
-0.79%
Best Trade
+16.79%
Worst Trade
-2.20%
Avg Bars Held
20.1h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Signal flip: 29 (53%) Forward-pred: 20 (36%) Short signal: 3 (5%) Trailing stop: 2 (4%) Take-profit: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +554.4% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 81.8% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.2%.
  • Robust sample: 55 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BULL — avg +7.78% on 7 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 26 84.6% +3.23% +124.68% 22h
BUBBLE 22 72.7% +2.75% +79.14% 13h
BULL 7 100.0% +7.78% +67.71% 1.5d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 55 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 15:00 07 Jul 2025 08:00 $5.32 $5.45 +2.04% BULL 18h
07 Jul 2025 10:00 10 Jul 2025 22:00 $5.36 $6.25 +16.28% BUBBLE 3.5d
12 Jul 2025 01:00 12 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.27 $6.35 +0.95% BUBBLE 12h
12 Jul 2025 16:00 13 Jul 2025 04:00 $6.26 $6.64 +5.82% BUBBLE 13h
13 Jul 2025 06:00 13 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.54 $6.56 +0.10% BUBBLE 7h
13 Jul 2025 14:00 13 Jul 2025 16:00 $6.53 $6.50 -0.71% BUBBLE 3h
13 Jul 2025 22:00 14 Jul 2025 09:00 $6.42 $6.71 +4.37% BUBBLE 12h
15 Jul 2025 01:00 16 Jul 2025 20:00 $6.30 $6.89 +9.18% BUBBLE 1.8d
17 Jul 2025 17:00 18 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.67 $7.18 +7.44% BUBBLE 20h
20 Jul 2025 07:00 20 Jul 2025 16:00 $7.03 $7.22 +2.35% BUBBLE 10h
20 Jul 2025 18:00 20 Jul 2025 20:00 $7.14 $7.12 -0.67% BUBBLE 3h
20 Jul 2025 23:00 21 Jul 2025 09:00 $7.01 $7.40 +5.24% BUBBLE 11h
22 Jul 2025 20:00 22 Jul 2025 22:00 $7.12 $7.20 +0.94% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 11:00 24 Jul 2025 13:00 $5.90 $5.88 -0.55% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 17:00 24 Jul 2025 19:00 $5.89 $5.90 -0.05% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 22:00 26 Jul 2025 09:00 $5.87 $6.09 +3.62% BUBBLE 1.5d
26 Jul 2025 11:00 26 Jul 2025 19:00 $6.13 $6.06 -1.33% BUBBLE 9h
26 Jul 2025 21:00 28 Jul 2025 09:00 $5.99 $6.74 +12.37% BUBBLE 1.5d
28 Jul 2025 23:00 29 Jul 2025 08:00 $6.38 $6.54 +2.33% BUBBLE 10h
30 Jul 2025 12:00 31 Jul 2025 08:00 $5.88 $6.24 +5.92% BUBBLE 21h
01 Aug 2025 09:00 01 Aug 2025 11:00 $5.63 $5.69 +0.87% BUBBLE 3h
01 Aug 2025 14:00 01 Aug 2025 16:00 $5.70 $5.70 -0.04% BUBBLE 3h
01 Aug 2025 23:00 02 Aug 2025 01:00 $5.61 $5.63 +0.20% BUBBLE 3h
03 Aug 2025 02:00 04 Aug 2025 15:00 $5.52 $6.03 +8.89% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
04 Aug 2025 17:00 04 Aug 2025 23:00 $6.10 $6.18 +0.93% SIDEWAYS 7h
06 Aug 2025 02:00 08 Aug 2025 14:00 $5.78 $6.65 +14.86% SIDEWAYS 2.5d
09 Aug 2025 03:00 09 Aug 2025 20:00 $6.72 $6.97 +3.52% BULL 18h
10 Aug 2025 09:00 10 Aug 2025 17:00 $7.06 $7.41 +4.78% BULL 9h
12 Aug 2025 06:00 13 Aug 2025 22:00 $6.54 $7.02 +7.20% BULL 1.7d
17 Aug 2025 02:00 17 Aug 2025 08:00 $7.21 $7.56 +4.50% BULL 7h
20 Aug 2025 00:00 21 Aug 2025 01:00 $6.36 $6.59 +3.34% BULL 1.1d
22 Aug 2025 01:00 22 Aug 2025 19:00 $6.28 $6.83 +8.53% SIDEWAYS 19h
22 Aug 2025 21:00 23 Aug 2025 05:00 $6.86 $6.80 -1.02% SIDEWAYS 9h
23 Aug 2025 21:00 24 Aug 2025 00:00 $6.79 $6.78 -0.34% SIDEWAYS 4h
24 Aug 2025 08:00 24 Aug 2025 18:00 $6.59 $6.84 +3.58% SIDEWAYS 11h
24 Aug 2025 23:00 25 Aug 2025 01:00 $6.65 $6.60 -0.94% SIDEWAYS 3h
25 Aug 2025 21:00 27 Aug 2025 04:00 $5.92 $6.93 +16.79% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
27 Aug 2025 07:00 27 Aug 2025 09:00 $6.70 $7.13 +6.25% SIDEWAYS 3h
28 Aug 2025 06:00 28 Aug 2025 08:00 $6.70 $6.78 +0.99% SIDEWAYS 3h
29 Aug 2025 15:00 30 Aug 2025 19:00 $6.42 $6.57 +2.25% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
01 Sep 2025 23:00 02 Sep 2025 01:00 $6.03 $6.12 +1.11% SIDEWAYS 3h
03 Sep 2025 09:00 04 Sep 2025 01:00 $5.78 $5.92 +2.12% SIDEWAYS 17h
04 Sep 2025 06:00 04 Sep 2025 08:00 $5.68 $5.73 +0.50% SIDEWAYS 3h
04 Sep 2025 14:00 05 Sep 2025 21:00 $5.66 $5.76 +1.42% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
05 Sep 2025 23:00 08 Sep 2025 22:00 $5.76 $5.99 +3.73% SIDEWAYS 3d
10 Sep 2025 01:00 10 Sep 2025 03:00 $5.90 $6.00 +1.50% SIDEWAYS 3h
10 Sep 2025 18:00 13 Sep 2025 08:00 $5.94 $6.22 +4.51% SIDEWAYS 2.6d
15 Sep 2025 15:00 18 Sep 2025 21:00 $5.64 $6.02 +6.28% SIDEWAYS 3.3d
18 Sep 2025 23:00 19 Sep 2025 01:00 $6.00 $6.12 +1.64% SIDEWAYS 3h
20 Sep 2025 00:00 21 Sep 2025 05:00 $5.63 $6.09 +7.88% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
22 Sep 2025 06:00 23 Sep 2025 14:00 $5.49 $5.65 +2.58% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
23 Sep 2025 16:00 23 Sep 2025 21:00 $5.63 $5.52 -2.20% SIDEWAYS 6h
24 Sep 2025 01:00 24 Sep 2025 12:00 $5.54 $5.65 +1.88% SIDEWAYS 12h
25 Sep 2025 18:00 27 Sep 2025 08:00 $5.21 $5.33 +2.06% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
28 Sep 2025 02:00 29 Sep 2025 01:00 $5.28 $5.47 +3.17% SIDEWAYS 24h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

81.8% Win Rate +554.4% Return -2.2% Max Drawdown Net of Fees