MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2530-3.39%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.25
Volume$416,103
Updated14:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q4-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 72 trades would have compounded to a final value of $84,420 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 72 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+744.2%
$10,000 →
$84,420
Win Rate
87.5%
63W / 9L
Trades
72
Sharpe
11.17
Alpha vs B&H
+799.34pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-55.14%
Max Drawdown
-2.08%
Avg Drawdown
-4.89%
Sharpe Trend
-7.23
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — MOVR — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 72-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+3.77%
Avg Loss
-1.13%
Best Trade
+14.13%
Worst Trade
-3.15%
Avg Bars Held
13.8h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 29 (40%) Signal flip: 25 (35%) Short signal: 10 (14%) Trailing stop: 6 (8%) Regime exit: 2 (3%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +744.2% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 87.5% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.1%.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 72 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +3.45% on 49 trades, WR 90%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 49 89.8% +3.45% +410.42% 13h
BEAR 18 83.3% +2.77% +62.04% 15h
BUBBLE 3 100.0% +2.63% +8.09% 15h
BULL 2 50.0% +0.04% -0.03% 13h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 72 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Oct 2025 02:00 05 Oct 2025 07:00 $5.64 $5.83 +2.91% BUBBLE 6h
06 Oct 2025 08:00 07 Oct 2025 01:00 $5.57 $5.67 +1.54% BUBBLE 18h
07 Oct 2025 22:00 08 Oct 2025 17:00 $5.37 $5.57 +3.44% BUBBLE 20h
09 Oct 2025 16:00 10 Oct 2025 05:00 $5.34 $5.53 +3.22% BULL 14h
10 Oct 2025 21:00 11 Oct 2025 08:00 $4.38 $4.25 -3.15% BULL 12h
11 Oct 2025 21:00 13 Oct 2025 17:00 $4.05 $4.63 +14.06% BULL 1.9d
14 Oct 2025 06:00 15 Oct 2025 02:00 $4.36 $4.42 +1.21% SIDEWAYS 21h
19 Oct 2025 02:00 19 Oct 2025 18:00 $3.86 $3.99 +2.79% SIDEWAYS 17h
19 Oct 2025 20:00 19 Oct 2025 22:00 $3.94 $3.94 -0.23% SIDEWAYS 3h
20 Oct 2025 01:00 20 Oct 2025 08:00 $3.82 $4.03 +4.98% SIDEWAYS 8h
21 Oct 2025 00:00 21 Oct 2025 15:00 $3.89 $4.04 +3.54% SIDEWAYS 16h
22 Oct 2025 18:00 24 Oct 2025 01:00 $3.67 $3.75 +1.82% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
24 Oct 2025 17:00 24 Oct 2025 23:00 $3.61 $3.67 +1.33% SIDEWAYS 7h
25 Oct 2025 05:00 26 Oct 2025 21:00 $3.61 $3.72 +2.76% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
29 Oct 2025 01:00 29 Oct 2025 20:00 $3.53 $3.60 +1.85% SIDEWAYS 20h
30 Oct 2025 00:00 30 Oct 2025 02:00 $3.54 $3.55 +0.12% SIDEWAYS 3h
02 Nov 2025 02:00 02 Nov 2025 06:00 $3.42 $3.48 +1.34% SIDEWAYS 5h
02 Nov 2025 15:00 02 Nov 2025 18:00 $3.42 $3.51 +2.42% SIDEWAYS 4h
02 Nov 2025 22:00 03 Nov 2025 00:00 $3.44 $3.43 -0.74% SIDEWAYS 3h
03 Nov 2025 05:00 03 Nov 2025 14:00 $3.18 $3.26 +2.20% SIDEWAYS 10h
03 Nov 2025 16:00 04 Nov 2025 03:00 $3.09 $3.52 +13.39% SIDEWAYS 12h
04 Nov 2025 05:00 04 Nov 2025 09:00 $3.69 $3.68 -0.47% SIDEWAYS 5h
04 Nov 2025 21:00 05 Nov 2025 22:00 $3.16 $3.41 +7.75% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
06 Nov 2025 01:00 06 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.37 $3.70 +9.53% SIDEWAYS 7h
06 Nov 2025 09:00 06 Nov 2025 13:00 $3.53 $3.71 +4.75% SIDEWAYS 5h
06 Nov 2025 17:00 07 Nov 2025 03:00 $3.46 $3.88 +11.71% SIDEWAYS 11h
07 Nov 2025 08:00 07 Nov 2025 18:00 $3.78 $4.31 +13.82% SIDEWAYS 11h
07 Nov 2025 21:00 08 Nov 2025 02:00 $4.17 $4.15 -0.72% SIDEWAYS 6h
08 Nov 2025 09:00 08 Nov 2025 10:00 $3.97 $4.19 +5.52% SIDEWAYS 2h
08 Nov 2025 17:00 08 Nov 2025 22:00 $3.80 $3.88 +1.73% SIDEWAYS 6h
09 Nov 2025 02:00 09 Nov 2025 15:00 $3.81 $3.85 +0.91% SIDEWAYS 14h
09 Nov 2025 23:00 10 Nov 2025 04:00 $3.78 $3.83 +1.21% SIDEWAYS 6h
10 Nov 2025 17:00 10 Nov 2025 19:00 $3.69 $3.74 +1.00% SIDEWAYS 3h
10 Nov 2025 22:00 11 Nov 2025 22:00 $3.68 $3.91 +6.11% SIDEWAYS 1d
12 Nov 2025 01:00 12 Nov 2025 03:00 $3.71 $3.77 +1.51% SIDEWAYS 3h
12 Nov 2025 17:00 13 Nov 2025 10:00 $3.58 $3.83 +6.72% SIDEWAYS 18h
14 Nov 2025 05:00 14 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.47 $3.55 +2.11% SIDEWAYS 3h
14 Nov 2025 13:00 14 Nov 2025 15:00 $3.45 $3.57 +3.20% SIDEWAYS 3h
14 Nov 2025 21:00 15 Nov 2025 00:00 $3.47 $3.45 -0.74% SIDEWAYS 4h
16 Nov 2025 22:00 17 Nov 2025 00:00 $3.26 $3.34 +2.07% BEAR 3h
18 Nov 2025 03:00 18 Nov 2025 18:00 $3.16 $3.25 +2.40% BEAR 16h
19 Nov 2025 05:00 20 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.12 $3.20 +2.27% BEAR 1.1d
20 Nov 2025 09:00 20 Nov 2025 12:00 $3.26 $3.33 +1.65% BEAR 4h
20 Nov 2025 17:00 20 Nov 2025 23:00 $3.08 $3.20 +3.41% BEAR 7h
21 Nov 2025 12:00 21 Nov 2025 17:00 $2.94 $3.07 +4.16% BEAR 6h
21 Nov 2025 19:00 22 Nov 2025 04:00 $3.07 $3.02 -1.91% BEAR 10h
22 Nov 2025 06:00 22 Nov 2025 22:00 $2.98 $3.11 +4.10% BEAR 17h
24 Nov 2025 12:00 25 Nov 2025 01:00 $3.00 $3.12 +3.50% BEAR 14h
25 Nov 2025 03:00 26 Nov 2025 06:00 $3.11 $3.22 +3.08% BEAR 1.2d
26 Nov 2025 12:00 27 Nov 2025 12:00 $3.12 $3.18 +1.60% BEAR 1d
27 Nov 2025 14:00 27 Nov 2025 17:00 $3.19 $3.65 +14.13% BEAR 4h
30 Nov 2025 11:00 30 Nov 2025 13:00 $3.15 $3.18 +0.76% SIDEWAYS 3h
01 Dec 2025 14:00 03 Dec 2025 19:00 $2.91 $3.08 +5.45% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
04 Dec 2025 22:00 05 Dec 2025 00:00 $2.96 $2.97 +0.03% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Dec 2025 17:00 07 Dec 2025 09:00 $2.84 $2.91 +1.89% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
07 Dec 2025 11:00 07 Dec 2025 15:00 $2.90 $3.15 +8.08% SIDEWAYS 5h
07 Dec 2025 22:00 08 Dec 2025 07:00 $2.97 $3.22 +8.14% SIDEWAYS 10h
09 Dec 2025 02:00 09 Dec 2025 23:00 $3.04 $3.10 +1.92% SIDEWAYS 22h
10 Dec 2025 11:00 10 Dec 2025 13:00 $3.00 $3.07 +2.21% SIDEWAYS 3h
11 Dec 2025 09:00 12 Dec 2025 06:00 $2.90 $2.99 +2.88% SIDEWAYS 22h
12 Dec 2025 17:00 13 Dec 2025 01:00 $2.88 $2.90 +0.43% SIDEWAYS 9h
14 Dec 2025 22:00 15 Dec 2025 02:00 $2.72 $2.75 +0.54% SIDEWAYS 5h
15 Dec 2025 18:00 16 Dec 2025 01:00 $2.55 $2.59 +1.31% SIDEWAYS 8h
16 Dec 2025 09:00 17 Dec 2025 00:00 $2.59 $2.54 -2.08% SIDEWAYS 16h
18 Dec 2025 06:00 18 Dec 2025 13:00 $2.35 $2.46 +4.40% BEAR 8h
18 Dec 2025 20:00 20 Dec 2025 04:00 $2.34 $2.48 +5.45% BEAR 1.4d
20 Dec 2025 06:00 20 Dec 2025 14:00 $2.50 $2.52 +0.83% BEAR 9h
21 Dec 2025 14:00 23 Dec 2025 04:00 $2.45 $2.49 +1.59% BEAR 1.6d
23 Dec 2025 07:00 25 Dec 2025 06:00 $2.46 $2.61 +5.71% BEAR 2d
26 Dec 2025 01:00 26 Dec 2025 07:00 $2.54 $2.54 -0.17% SIDEWAYS 7h
27 Dec 2025 07:00 27 Dec 2025 13:00 $2.53 $2.54 +0.22% SIDEWAYS 7h
28 Dec 2025 21:00 29 Dec 2025 01:00 $2.50 $2.52 +0.51% SIDEWAYS 5h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
87.5% Win Rate +744.2% Return -2.1% Max Drawdown Net of Fees