Backtests / AXS
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

AXS AXS (AXS) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for AXS. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

1 Walk-Forward Cycle Apr 2024 – May 2026 $1.3570 (-3.21%)
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Axie Infinity (AXS) was the breakout play-to-earn game of the 2021 cycle and remains a flagship Web3 gaming token. AXS exhibits sharp gaming-cycle moves and Ronin-network ecosystem catalysts. Long training history makes it a robust target.

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
12.33
Sortino Ratio
14.05
Profit Factor
29.68
Calmar Ratio
8,889.86
Win Rate
90.0%
Max Drawdown
-18.2%
Avg Drawdown
-18.19%
Alpha vs B&H
+276,419,595.4pp
Total Trades
350
Exposure
37.8%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
AXS

AXS Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
+62.2%
12t
+58.4%
12t
+73.7%
12t
+60.3%
11t
+43.5%
14t
+70.3%
13t
+166.1%
18t
+192.8%
25t
+13,532.9%
2025
+87.9%
13t
+56.3%
12t
+91.3%
12t
+76.4%
13t
+103.5%
17t
+42.2%
10t
+89.4%
15t
+95.4%
14t
+32.4%
8t
+65.4%
14t
+96.1%
19t
+67.3%
13t
+76,111.1%
2026
+1,020.6%
20t
+140.5%
19t
+71.4%
18t
+73.0%
15t
+4.8%
1t
+8,275.4%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +2.76M× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 90.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Large drawdown: -18.2% — expect volatility on capital.
  • Robust sample: 350 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +6.09% on 137 trades, WR 94%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 108 89.8% +3.77% 36.49 14.9
BULL 43 86.1% +5.18% 13.04 28.6
SIDEWAYS 137 94.2% +6.09% 55.85 22.5
BEAR 62 83.9% +3.70% 17.52 14.4

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Feb 2026 – May 2026).

Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
30 Apr 2026 13:00 01 May 2026 08:00 $1.349 $1.417 +4.78% SIDEWAYS 20 exit_fp
28 Apr 2026 12:00 28 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.433 $1.517 +5.60% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 14:00 27 Apr 2026 18:00 $1.425 $1.470 +2.90% SIDEWAYS 5 exit_fp
26 Apr 2026 15:00 26 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.414 $1.448 +2.15% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
25 Apr 2026 01:00 25 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.160 $1.541 +32.51% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
22 Apr 2026 05:00 22 Apr 2026 13:00 $1.131 $1.119 -1.31% SIDEWAYS 9 signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.088 $1.103 +1.00% SIDEWAYS 32 trail
16 Apr 2026 15:00 16 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.164 $1.186 +1.64% SIDEWAYS 9 signal
15 Apr 2026 03:00 15 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.107 $1.133 +1.99% BEAR 21 trail
13 Apr 2026 22:00 14 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.121 $1.121 -0.25% BEAR 17 signal
13 Apr 2026 01:00 13 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.085 $1.065 -2.17% BEAR 7 stop
09 Apr 2026 00:00 09 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.095 $1.136 +3.49% BEAR 21 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 18:00 $1.109 $1.087 -2.29% BEAR 17 stop
05 Apr 2026 13:00 06 Apr 2026 11:00 $1.092 $1.138 +3.95% BEAR 23 exit_fp
02 Apr 2026 09:00 03 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.074 $1.137 +5.60% BEAR 26 exit_fp
31 Mar 2026 09:00 01 Apr 2026 03:00 $1.099 $1.158 +5.11% BEAR 19 exit_fp
29 Mar 2026 23:00 30 Mar 2026 10:00 $1.118 $1.156 +3.14% BEAR 12 exit_fp
27 Mar 2026 12:00 28 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.099 $1.177 +6.83% BEAR 22 exit_fp
26 Mar 2026 11:00 26 Mar 2026 23:00 $1.073 $1.116 +3.75% BEAR 13 exit_fp
23 Mar 2026 22:00 24 Mar 2026 08:00 $1.113 $1.130 +1.27% BEAR 11 exit_fp
23 Mar 2026 01:00 23 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.085 $1.062 -2.50% BEAR 9 stop
19 Mar 2026 13:00 20 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.176 $1.222 +3.65% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp
18 Mar 2026 00:00 18 Mar 2026 03:00 $1.233 $1.254 +1.45% SIDEWAYS 4 signal
15 Mar 2026 13:00 17 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.221 $1.263 +3.18% BEAR 37 signal
14 Mar 2026 22:00 15 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.238 $1.269 +2.25% BEAR 3 exit_fp
14 Mar 2026 06:00 14 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.197 $1.274 +6.17% BEAR 4 exit_fp
12 Mar 2026 02:00 13 Mar 2026 17:00 $1.111 $1.149 +3.03% BEAR 40 trail
11 Mar 2026 03:00 11 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.112 $1.168 +4.77% BEAR 10 exit_fp
07 Mar 2026 23:00 09 Mar 2026 17:00 $1.111 $1.120 +0.62% BEAR 43 short_signal
05 Mar 2026 18:00 05 Mar 2026 20:00 $1.201 $1.217 +1.14% BEAR 3 signal
04 Mar 2026 05:00 04 Mar 2026 15:00 $1.182 $1.254 +5.89% BEAR 11 exit_fp
03 Mar 2026 14:00 03 Mar 2026 16:00 $1.208 $1.242 +2.62% BEAR 3 signal
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.235 $1.257 +1.48% BEAR 17 trail
28 Feb 2026 07:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.250 $1.333 +6.44% BEAR 19 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 15:00 27 Feb 2026 02:00 $1.355 $1.400 +3.12% BEAR 12 short_signal
23 Feb 2026 20:00 26 Feb 2026 00:00 $1.236 $1.366 +10.31% BEAR 53 short_signal
21 Feb 2026 12:00 21 Feb 2026 19:00 $1.334 $1.359 +1.68% BEAR 8 short_signal
20 Feb 2026 13:00 20 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.263 $1.344 +6.21% BEAR 11 exit_fp
19 Feb 2026 23:00 20 Feb 2026 00:00 $1.272 $1.375 +7.89% BEAR 2 exit_fp
19 Feb 2026 06:00 19 Feb 2026 10:00 $1.253 $1.217 -3.09% BEAR 5 stop
18 Feb 2026 12:00 18 Feb 2026 17:00 $1.336 $1.332 -0.49% BEAR 6 short_signal
17 Feb 2026 15:00 17 Feb 2026 22:00 $1.340 $1.362 +1.45% BEAR 8 signal
13 Feb 2026 01:00 13 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.368 $1.410 +2.87% BEAR 23 exit_fp
10 Feb 2026 12:00 11 Feb 2026 00:00 $1.487 $1.597 +7.19% BEAR 13 signal
09 Feb 2026 19:00 09 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.409 $1.481 +4.91% BEAR 5 exit_fp
08 Feb 2026 16:00 09 Feb 2026 06:00 $1.256 $1.576 +25.24% BEAR 15 exit_fp
07 Feb 2026 06:00 07 Feb 2026 15:00 $1.314 $1.378 +4.67% BEAR 10 exit_fp
05 Feb 2026 23:00 06 Feb 2026 05:00 $1.299 $1.348 +3.58% BEAR 7 exit_fp
05 Feb 2026 01:00 05 Feb 2026 06:00 $1.499 $1.563 +4.07% BEAR 6 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 11:00 03 Feb 2026 20:00 $1.545 $1.687 +8.98% BEAR 10 exit_fp

Start Trading AXS Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time AXS signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

90.0% Win Rate Sharpe 12.33 350 Trades -18.2% Max Drawdown