Backtests / ARKM
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

ARKM ARKM (ARKM) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for ARKM. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

1 Walk-Forward Cycle Apr 2024 – May 2026 $0.120600 (+7.68%)
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Arkham (ARKM) is the token of the Arkham Intelligence platform, which de-anonymizes blockchain activity by labeling wallet ownership. Traders use it to track whales, exchanges and smart-money flows. Listed mid-2023 with reasonable history; volatile around major industry events.

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
9.88
Sortino Ratio
10.63
Profit Factor
10.48
Calmar Ratio
6,102.03
Win Rate
82.1%
Max Drawdown
-19.3%
Avg Drawdown
-19.26%
Alpha vs B&H
+145,630,643.5pp
Total Trades
397
Exposure
35.1%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
ARKM

ARKM Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
+5.5%
1t
+207.0%
18t
+40.4%
16t
+95.6%
17t
+62.6%
25t
+158.3%
20t
+132.6%
18t
+202.5%
25t
+104.4%
19t
+53,613.7%
2025
+105.1%
18t
+112.6%
21t
+151.5%
16t
+101.1%
17t
+155.8%
16t
+58.6%
13t
+136.1%
17t
+87.5%
14t
+54.7%
21t
+111.0%
22t
+37.5%
12t
+25.8%
16t
+223,731.6%
2026
+40.0%
21t
-3.1%
3t
+22.5%
11t
+66.0%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +1.46M× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 82.1% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Large drawdown: -19.3% — expect volatility on capital.
  • Robust sample: 397 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BULL — avg +6.43% on 56 trades, WR 89%.
  • Weakest regime: BEAR — avg -1.67% on 3 trades, WR 0%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 111 87.4% +3.85% 16.38 13.0
BULL 56 89.3% +6.43% 14.55 22.3
SIDEWAYS 227 78.9% +3.30% 8.33 17.1
BEAR 3 0.0% -1.67% 0.00 12.7

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).

Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
30 Apr 2026 04:00 30 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.10920 $0.11100 +1.14% SIDEWAYS 17 trail
28 Apr 2026 07:00 29 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.11250 $0.10990 -2.85% SIDEWAYS 33 stop
27 Apr 2026 08:00 27 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.11590 $0.11500 -1.18% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
26 Apr 2026 01:00 26 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.11870 $0.12060 +1.08% SIDEWAYS 12 trail
23 Apr 2026 01:00 25 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.11940 $0.12570 +4.85% SIDEWAYS 50 short_signal
21 Apr 2026 18:00 22 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.12300 $0.12740 +3.15% SIDEWAYS 11 short_signal
19 Apr 2026 21:00 20 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.13610 $0.13630 -0.26% SIDEWAYS 24 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 02:00 19 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.12670 $0.13350 +4.94% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 22:00 18 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.12300 $0.13140 +6.39% SIDEWAYS 16 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 16:00 16 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.12490 $0.12560 +0.15% SIDEWAYS 4 signal
16 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.11110 $0.11540 +3.45% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
21 Mar 2026 13:00 21 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.10700 $0.10800 +0.52% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
20 Mar 2026 06:00 20 Mar 2026 13:00 $0.11000 $0.10700 -3.23% BEAR 8 regime_exit
19 Mar 2026 13:00 19 Mar 2026 17:00 $0.10800 $0.10800 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
31 Jan 2026 09:00 31 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.14600 $0.13430 -8.47% SIDEWAYS 8 stop
29 Jan 2026 23:00 30 Jan 2026 18:00 $0.15500 $0.15600 +0.23% SIDEWAYS 20 short_signal
27 Jan 2026 09:00 28 Jan 2026 11:00 $0.16400 $0.17000 +3.23% SIDEWAYS 27 exit_fp
26 Jan 2026 00:00 26 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.16800 $0.16700 -1.00% SIDEWAYS 20 short_signal
25 Jan 2026 09:00 25 Jan 2026 11:00 $0.17700 $0.17800 +0.15% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
24 Jan 2026 10:00 24 Jan 2026 14:00 $0.17800 $0.17800 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
22 Jan 2026 15:00 23 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.17700 $0.18200 +2.40% SIDEWAYS 27 short_signal
21 Jan 2026 12:00 21 Jan 2026 14:00 $0.17700 $0.18300 +2.97% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
20 Jan 2026 12:00 20 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.18200 $0.17390 -4.93% SIDEWAYS 12 stop
19 Jan 2026 05:00 19 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.18500 $0.18700 +0.67% SIDEWAYS 13 exit_fp
18 Jan 2026 14:00 18 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.20400 $0.20500 +0.08% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
15 Jan 2026 19:00 17 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.20300 $0.21700 +6.46% SIDEWAYS 38 exit_fp
12 Jan 2026 21:00 13 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.19500 $0.22200 +13.38% SIDEWAYS 26 exit_fp
11 Jan 2026 16:00 12 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.20700 $0.21100 +1.52% SIDEWAYS 11 exit_fp
08 Jan 2026 09:00 09 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.20500 $0.21200 +2.99% SIDEWAYS 32 exit_fp
07 Jan 2026 16:00 07 Jan 2026 20:00 $0.21200 $0.21300 +0.06% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
06 Jan 2026 18:00 06 Jan 2026 21:00 $0.22200 $0.23000 +3.18% SIDEWAYS 4 exit_fp
05 Jan 2026 20:00 06 Jan 2026 00:00 $0.22500 $0.22100 -2.18% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
03 Jan 2026 16:00 05 Jan 2026 07:00 $0.20400 $0.21900 +6.91% SIDEWAYS 40 exit_fp
02 Jan 2026 23:00 03 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.20100 $0.20100 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
01 Jan 2026 02:00 02 Jan 2026 10:00 $0.17600 $0.19300 +9.21% SIDEWAYS 33 take_profit
31 Dec 2025 09:00 31 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.18100 $0.18100 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
29 Dec 2025 21:00 30 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.18500 $0.18200 -2.02% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
26 Dec 2025 07:00 28 Dec 2025 04:00 $0.18400 $0.19100 +3.38% SIDEWAYS 46 short_signal
24 Dec 2025 09:00 25 Dec 2025 18:00 $0.18200 $0.18500 +1.23% SIDEWAYS 34 short_signal
15 Dec 2025 23:00 17 Dec 2025 00:00 $0.19700 $0.19600 -1.02% BEAR 26 regime_exit
14 Dec 2025 22:00 15 Dec 2025 10:00 $0.20500 $0.21000 +2.02% SIDEWAYS 13 short_signal
12 Dec 2025 21:00 13 Dec 2025 10:00 $0.20900 $0.21600 +2.93% SIDEWAYS 14 exit_fp
11 Dec 2025 19:00 12 Dec 2025 08:00 $0.21300 $0.21800 +1.93% SIDEWAYS 14 signal
11 Dec 2025 00:00 11 Dec 2025 06:00 $0.21800 $0.21300 -2.69% SIDEWAYS 7 short_signal
09 Dec 2025 04:00 09 Dec 2025 15:00 $0.22000 $0.23200 +5.02% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp
07 Dec 2025 14:00 08 Dec 2025 14:00 $0.21300 $0.22900 +7.07% SIDEWAYS 25 exit_fp
05 Dec 2025 13:00 06 Dec 2025 17:00 $0.22600 $0.22700 +0.03% SIDEWAYS 29 exit_fp
04 Dec 2025 15:00 04 Dec 2025 17:00 $0.24200 $0.23800 -2.06% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
03 Dec 2025 05:00 03 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.23900 $0.23700 -1.24% SIDEWAYS 15 short_signal
01 Dec 2025 22:00 02 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.21600 $0.23900 +10.20% SIDEWAYS 19 exit_fp

Start Trading ARKM Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time ARKM signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

82.1% Win Rate Sharpe 9.88 397 Trades -19.3% Max Drawdown