Backtests / STX
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

STX STX (STX) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for STX. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $0.226400 (+1.43%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Stacks (STX) brings smart contracts and DeFi to Bitcoin via the proof-of-transfer mechanism. Major narrative leader for "Bitcoin DeFi" with Nakamoto-upgrade catalysts. Long history (since 2019) provides multi-cycle training data.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View STX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
9.36
Sortino Ratio
7.36
Profit Factor
16.45
Calmar Ratio
3,120.31
Win Rate
83.4%
Max Drawdown
-18.3%
Avg Drawdown
-18.25%
Alpha vs B&H
+223,578,717,978,962,848.0pp
Total Trades
513
Exposure
37.1%
Beats B&H
2/2
Sharpe Trend
+4.46
STX

STX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
+51.1%
7t
+64.5%
18t
+100.5%
16t
—
+182.1%
17t
+46.2%
13t
+56.1%
15t
+72.5%
15t
 +5,434.9%
2021
+43.9%
10t
+44.0%
10t
+14.0%
5t
+17.0%
5t
+136.3%
25t
+102.0%
21t
+336.4%
27t
+33.0%
10t
+41.1%
13t
+20.6%
6t
+53.7%
9t
+99.8%
21t
 +39,884.8%
2022
+179.7%
19t
+68.0%
14t
+125.5%
18t
+34.5%
16t
+39.0%
25t
+78.6%
25t
+55.8%
21t
+17.8%
14t
+30.5%
15t
+16.5%
14t
+52.2%
20t
+15.4%
16t
 +17,239.0%
2023
+55.6%
19t
+395.2%
18t
+313.1%
24t
+63.4%
17t
+53.0%
14t
+102.2%
15t
+18.9%
15t
+19.8%
15t
+22.1%
18t
+94.5%
15t
+107.4%
14t
+61.1%
5t
 +181,785.3%
2024
+71.7%
9t
+36.4%
5t
-11.9%
1t
+6.6%
1t
+115.8%
11t
+105.3%
15t
+133.1%
13t
+127.8%
20t
+112.2%
16t
+92.8%
13t
+178.2%
16t
+175.7%
20t
 +162,186.6%
2025
+69.0%
13t
+59.7%
17t
+100.6%
11t
+120.3%
16t
+87.5%
12t
+62.9%
12t
+77.6%
10t
+67.1%
11t
+35.3%
14t
+43.3%
17t
+72.6%
18t
+33.0%
11t
 +48,048.3%
2026
+68.5%
14t
+72.8%
17t
+43.2%
11t
+46.5%
11t
-0.5%
1t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +507.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +2,235,787.18B× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 83.4% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -18.3% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 513 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +4.92% on 144 trades, WR 79%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 136 84.2% +4.53% 100.07 15.1
BULL 144 80.3% +4.84% 8.87 25.4
SIDEWAYS 606 84.8% +3.96% 25.93 20.6
BEAR 139 77.0% +3.27% 13.39 14.8

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '20 – Apr '24 7.13 2,715,110,544x -18.2% 78.2% 685 Yes
2 Apr '24 – May '26 11.60 823,460x -18.3% 88.5% 340 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+298.7%
Win Rate
80.0%
40W / 10L
Max Drawdown
-4.9%
€10,000 Invested
€39,865
4.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
02 May 2026 09:00 02 May 2026 11:00 $0.22310 $0.22280 -0.54% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
26 Apr 2026 01:00 26 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.22560 $0.23020 +1.62% SIDEWAYS 9 short_signal
23 Apr 2026 06:00 24 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.22580 $0.23030 +1.58% SIDEWAYS 31 signal
19 Apr 2026 21:00 22 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.22280 $0.23170 +3.57% SIDEWAYS 69 signal
14 Apr 2026 21:00 16 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.21990 $0.24290 +10.01% SIDEWAYS 46 short_signal
12 Apr 2026 21:00 14 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.21410 $0.22330 +3.75% BEAR 33 trail
11 Apr 2026 13:00 11 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.21730 $0.21890 +0.32% BEAR 4 signal
10 Apr 2026 08:00 10 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.21370 $0.22380 +4.30% BEAR 14 exit_fp
09 Apr 2026 01:00 09 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.22070 $0.22120 -0.18% BEAR 3 signal
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.21660 $0.22700 +4.37% BEAR 22 exit_fp
05 Apr 2026 08:00 06 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.20960 $0.22680 +7.76% BEAR 26 exit_fp
31 Mar 2026 11:00 01 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.21800 $0.22370 +2.20% BEAR 15 short_signal
30 Mar 2026 10:00 30 Mar 2026 18:00 $0.22300 $0.21900 -2.31% BEAR 9 stop
29 Mar 2026 15:00 29 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.21690 $0.21680 -0.45% BEAR 7 signal
24 Mar 2026 14:00 24 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.23910 $0.24330 +1.34% BEAR 8 signal
22 Mar 2026 22:00 24 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.23230 $0.24270 +3.93% BEAR 27 trail
14 Mar 2026 17:00 16 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.24770 $0.26590 +6.91% BEAR 53 signal
12 Mar 2026 03:00 13 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.25110 $0.26560 +5.34% BEAR 34 exit_fp
08 Mar 2026 19:00 10 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.25560 $0.27040 +5.36% BEAR 44 exit_fp
07 Mar 2026 23:00 08 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.25660 $0.25620 -0.56% BEAR 3 signal
03 Mar 2026 17:00 04 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.25960 $0.27430 +5.23% BEAR 23 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.24850 $0.26270 +5.28% BEAR 21 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 07:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.24690 $0.26520 +6.97% BEAR 19 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 15:00 27 Feb 2026 08:00 $0.26300 $0.27470 +4.02% BEAR 18 exit_fp
25 Feb 2026 12:00 25 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.25110 $0.26940 +6.85% BEAR 6 exit_fp
23 Feb 2026 18:00 24 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.23370 $0.23790 +1.27% BEAR 30 trail
20 Feb 2026 17:00 20 Feb 2026 20:00 $0.25720 $0.25530 -1.14% BEAR 4 signal
19 Feb 2026 16:00 20 Feb 2026 04:00 $0.24600 $0.25100 +1.51% BEAR 13 trail
19 Feb 2026 01:00 19 Feb 2026 03:00 $0.25390 $0.25410 -0.33% BEAR 3 signal
16 Feb 2026 04:00 16 Feb 2026 13:00 $0.26820 $0.26450 -1.78% BEAR 10 signal
13 Feb 2026 01:00 13 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.26200 $0.27550 +4.72% BEAR 19 short_signal
11 Feb 2026 05:00 12 Feb 2026 12:00 $0.24930 $0.26310 +4.98% BEAR 32 trail
10 Feb 2026 09:00 10 Feb 2026 11:00 $0.25610 $0.25430 -1.11% BEAR 3 signal
09 Feb 2026 11:00 09 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.25810 $0.26430 +1.98% BEAR 7 signal
07 Feb 2026 07:00 07 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.26270 $0.27410 +3.91% BEAR 12 short_signal
05 Feb 2026 22:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.24780 $0.28070 +12.81% BEAR 19 exit_fp
04 Feb 2026 22:00 05 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.27910 $0.28170 +0.52% BEAR 4 signal
03 Feb 2026 06:00 03 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.29920 $0.32460 +8.05% BEAR 10 exit_fp
02 Feb 2026 01:00 02 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.26170 $0.28890 +9.94% BEAR 17 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 16:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.26000 $0.26320 +0.71% BEAR 9 regime_exit
29 Jan 2026 19:00 30 Jan 2026 18:00 $0.28020 $0.29210 +3.82% SIDEWAYS 24 exit_fp
25 Jan 2026 18:00 27 Jan 2026 05:00 $0.28420 $0.29940 +4.92% SIDEWAYS 36 short_signal
20 Jan 2026 18:00 22 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.30380 $0.32860 +7.72% SIDEWAYS 32 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 00:00 19 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.32950 $0.33350 +0.80% SIDEWAYS 4 signal
16 Jan 2026 01:00 16 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.36580 $0.37400 +1.82% SIDEWAYS 22 exit_fp
12 Jan 2026 22:00 13 Jan 2026 20:00 $0.37680 $0.39110 +3.37% SIDEWAYS 23 signal
11 Jan 2026 21:00 12 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.38250 $0.38480 +0.19% SIDEWAYS 7 signal
09 Jan 2026 16:00 10 Jan 2026 13:00 $0.37970 $0.38870 +1.95% SIDEWAYS 22 signal
09 Jan 2026 01:00 09 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.35030 $0.35700 +1.50% SIDEWAYS 2 exit_fp
08 Jan 2026 01:00 08 Jan 2026 12:00 $0.34980 $0.33440 -4.90% SIDEWAYS 12 stop

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83.4% Win Rate Sharpe 9.36 513 Trades -18.3% Max Drawdown