Backtests / MANA
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

MANA MANA (MANA) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for MANA. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.090500 (+0.56%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Decentraland (MANA) is the native token of one of the earliest and most-recognized blockchain-based metaverse platforms. MANA price reacts strongly to gaming + NFT cycles and metaverse-narrative phases. Multi-year deep history.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Trade Log View MANA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
12.00
Sortino Ratio
13.94
Profit Factor
29.55
Calmar Ratio
5,967.21
Win Rate
88.0%
Max Drawdown
-9.6%
Avg Drawdown
-9.64%
Alpha vs B&H
+34,792,335.6pp
Total Trades
333
Exposure
41.4%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
MANA

MANA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
—
+52.8%
12t
+41.9%
12t
+64.4%
13t
+64.6%
15t
+51.1%
13t
+65.2%
14t
+249.6%
18t
+251.2%
21t
 +17,874.7%
2025
+87.0%
13t
+97.6%
16t
+84.2%
12t
+86.7%
12t
+85.7%
14t
+46.4%
8t
+102.3%
15t
+86.0%
9t
+42.9%
13t
+88.7%
16t
+34.7%
16t
+30.8%
13t
 +61,713.7%
2026
+132.8%
17t
+54.0%
16t
+43.8%
12t
+54.4%
13t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +695.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +347.92K× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 88.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 333 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +7.41% on 37 trades, WR 92%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 93 90.3% +4.58% 53.93 16.2
BULL 37 91.9% +7.41% 168.23 36.5
SIDEWAYS 154 89.6% +3.89% 31.61 23.7
BEAR 49 75.5% +2.71% 7.37 19.6

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).

Compound Return
+416.7%
Win Rate
84.0%
42W / 8L
Max Drawdown
-4.7%
€10,000 Invested
€51,671
5.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
25 Apr 2026 17:00 25 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.09530 $0.09730 +1.68% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 06:00 25 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.09060 $0.09720 +6.85% SIDEWAYS 45 short_signal
22 Apr 2026 01:00 22 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.09170 $0.09340 +1.44% SIDEWAYS 17 short_signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08940 $0.09140 +1.68% SIDEWAYS 38 trail
17 Apr 2026 04:00 18 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.09310 $0.09470 +1.18% SIDEWAYS 22 trail
15 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08660 $0.09400 +8.10% SIDEWAYS 36 take_profit
13 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.08600 $0.08810 +1.93% BEAR 29 trail
11 Apr 2026 13:00 11 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.08850 $0.09030 +1.62% BEAR 10 short_signal
09 Apr 2026 03:00 09 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.09040 $0.09340 +2.90% BEAR 7 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 01:00 08 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.08410 $0.08910 +5.37% BEAR 32 trail
05 Apr 2026 07:00 06 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.08470 $0.08840 +3.94% BEAR 28 exit_fp
03 Apr 2026 05:00 04 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.08750 $0.08890 +1.18% BEAR 27 signal
31 Mar 2026 15:00 01 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.08210 $0.08790 +6.63% BEAR 19 signal
29 Mar 2026 14:00 30 Mar 2026 17:00 $0.08040 $0.08270 +2.33% BEAR 28 trail
28 Mar 2026 01:00 28 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.08060 $0.08270 +2.19% BEAR 14 short_signal
24 Mar 2026 11:00 25 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.08790 $0.08890 +0.72% BEAR 25 short_signal
22 Mar 2026 17:00 23 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.08390 $0.08730 +3.53% BEAR 30 trail
17 Mar 2026 00:00 17 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.09790 $0.09710 -1.22% BEAR 3 signal
14 Mar 2026 18:00 16 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.09020 $0.09450 +4.23% BEAR 42 trail
12 Mar 2026 14:00 13 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.08990 $0.09310 +3.14% BEAR 20 short_signal
11 Mar 2026 03:00 12 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.09030 $0.09200 +1.32% BEAR 23 trail
09 Mar 2026 00:00 10 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.08960 $0.09420 +4.70% BEAR 39 exit_fp
03 Mar 2026 10:00 04 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.09470 $0.10100 +6.22% BEAR 34 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 18:00 02 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.09570 $0.10030 +4.38% BEAR 22 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 13:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.09310 $0.09870 +5.58% BEAR 13 exit_fp
27 Feb 2026 22:00 28 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.09630 $0.09630 -0.41% BEAR 3 signal
26 Feb 2026 14:00 26 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.09710 $0.09450 -3.22% BEAR 3 stop
24 Feb 2026 21:00 25 Feb 2026 20:00 $0.08960 $0.10270 +14.15% BEAR 24 exit_fp
23 Feb 2026 02:00 23 Feb 2026 11:00 $0.09030 $0.09410 +3.78% BEAR 10 signal
19 Feb 2026 12:00 21 Feb 2026 06:00 $0.09610 $0.09850 +1.97% BEAR 43 trail
17 Feb 2026 15:00 17 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.10130 $0.10140 -0.31% BEAR 5 short_signal
16 Feb 2026 11:00 16 Feb 2026 21:00 $0.10160 $0.10300 +0.96% BEAR 11 signal
13 Feb 2026 01:00 14 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.09840 $0.10880 +10.12% BEAR 43 exit_fp
11 Feb 2026 07:00 12 Feb 2026 10:00 $0.09530 $0.10160 +6.17% BEAR 28 exit_fp
09 Feb 2026 11:00 10 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.09840 $0.10190 +3.13% BEAR 15 signal
07 Feb 2026 05:00 07 Feb 2026 10:00 $0.10250 $0.09940 -3.51% BEAR 6 stop
06 Feb 2026 00:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.09030 $0.10330 +13.93% BEAR 17 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 15:00 03 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.11400 $0.11060 -3.47% BEAR 3 stop
02 Feb 2026 10:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.11280 $0.11600 +2.42% BEAR 6 exit_fp
01 Feb 2026 13:00 01 Feb 2026 21:00 $0.11540 $0.11180 -3.58% BEAR 9 stop
31 Jan 2026 17:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.11060 $0.11560 +3.98% BEAR 8 regime_exit
30 Jan 2026 03:00 31 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.12360 $0.12490 +0.64% SIDEWAYS 23 signal
27 Jan 2026 18:00 27 Jan 2026 20:00 $0.13970 $0.14100 +0.52% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
25 Jan 2026 19:00 26 Jan 2026 06:00 $0.13960 $0.14760 +5.30% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp
22 Jan 2026 18:00 23 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.16170 $0.17960 +10.62% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
21 Jan 2026 22:00 22 Jan 2026 05:00 $0.15870 $0.17510 +9.88% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
20 Jan 2026 22:00 21 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.15130 $0.16070 +5.78% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 21:00 19 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.15880 $0.15920 -0.16% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 00:00 19 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.14490 $0.15730 +8.11% SIDEWAYS 9 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 14:00 17 Jan 2026 14:00 $0.14450 $0.16870 +16.27% SIDEWAYS 25 exit_fp

Start Trading MANA Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time MANA signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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88.0% Win Rate Sharpe 12.00 333 Trades -9.6% Max Drawdown