AXSAxie Infinity$1.1480+21.22%

24h High$1.21

24h Low$0.94

Volume$17.5M

Updated15:38 UTC

Modelv6.2 Pythia

OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

Axie Infinity (AXS) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for AXS - Axie Infinity. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 1,009 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $793,068. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $1.1480 (+21.22%)

✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

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Axie Infinity (AXS) was the breakout play-to-earn game of the 2021 cycle and remains a flagship Web3 gaming token. AXS exhibits sharp gaming-cycle moves and Ronin-network ecosystem catalysts. Long training history makes it a robust target.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View AXS Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio

4.40

Sortino Ratio

6.35

Profit Factor

2.17

Calmar Ratio

72.55

Win Rate

44.0%

Max Drawdown

-9.9%

Avg Drawdown

-9.91%

Alpha vs B&H

+16,248.1pp

Total Trades

1,009

Exposure

79.9%

Beats B&H

1/1

Cycles

AXS Monthly Returns

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year Σ
2024	—	—	—	-5.4% 8t	+39.8% 26t	+20.4% 35t	+35.0% 43t	+22.9% 43t	+28.8% 36t	+17.3% 41t	+49.4% 27t	+44.5% 44t	+761.9%
2025	+9.9% 39t	+43.0% 48t	+42.5% 50t	+44.3% 44t	+41.5% 43t	+30.8% 35t	+41.4% 31t	+45.3% 46t	-4.7% 28t	+41.5% 53t	+47.0% 45t	+15.7% 39t	+2,719.7%
2026	+384.8% 56t	+51.8% 54t	+24.3% 38t	+12.4% 39t	-9.1% 18t	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+834.2%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights

↑ Exceptional return: +7,830.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
↑ Robust sample: 1009 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +4.54% on 62 trades, WR 73%.
↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.28% on 340 trades, WR 23%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for AXS over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…

▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime	Trades	Win Rate	Avg PnL	Profit Factor	Avg Bars
BUBBLE	12	75.0%	+4.41%	14.53	21.1
BULL	62	72.6%	+4.54%	13.63	17.2
BEAR	456	54.2%	+1.10%	2.97	15.3

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return

+3.5%

Win Rate

38.0%

19W / 31L

Max Drawdown

-6.2%

€10,000 Invested

€10,353

1.0x return

Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Entry	Exit	Entry Price	Exit Price	PnL	Regime	Bars	Exit Reason
18 May 2026 23:00	19 May 2026 20:00	$1.205	$1.193	-1.37%	NEUTRAL	22	stop
18 May 2026 18:00	18 May 2026 22:00	$1.170	$1.182	+0.77%	BEAR	5	exit_fp
16 May 2026 07:00	18 May 2026 17:00	$1.160	$1.163	+0.07%	BEAR	59	exit_fp
15 May 2026 14:00	16 May 2026 06:00	$1.201	$1.188	-1.33%	BEAR	17	stop
14 May 2026 08:00	15 May 2026 13:00	$1.254	$1.241	-1.33%	CRASH	30	stop
13 May 2026 16:00	14 May 2026 07:00	$1.267	$1.253	-1.33%	BEAR	16	stop
13 May 2026 13:00	13 May 2026 15:00	$1.322	$1.308	-1.33%	CRASH	3	stop
12 May 2026 15:00	13 May 2026 12:00	$1.349	$1.335	-1.33%	BEAR	22	stop
12 May 2026 11:00	12 May 2026 14:00	$1.383	$1.369	-1.37%	CRASH	4	stop
11 May 2026 04:00	12 May 2026 10:00	$1.401	$1.387	-1.37%	BEAR	31	stop
10 May 2026 15:00	11 May 2026 03:00	$1.425	$1.410	-1.37%	NEUTRAL	13	stop
10 May 2026 02:00	10 May 2026 06:00	$1.417	$1.425	+0.31%	NEUTRAL	5	signal
07 May 2026 15:00	07 May 2026 21:00	$1.357	$1.373	+0.93%	NEUTRAL	7	signal
04 May 2026 09:00	07 May 2026 14:00	$1.327	$1.359	+2.14%	NEUTRAL	78	trail
03 May 2026 12:00	04 May 2026 08:00	$1.338	$1.324	-1.33%	NEUTRAL	21	stop
03 May 2026 01:00	03 May 2026 11:00	$1.353	$1.339	-1.33%	BEAR	11	stop
01 May 2026 18:00	02 May 2026 14:00	$1.381	$1.382	-0.12%	NEUTRAL	21	signal
30 Apr 2026 14:00	01 May 2026 17:00	$1.364	$1.385	+1.28%	NEUTRAL	28	trail
29 Apr 2026 19:00	30 Apr 2026 13:00	$1.384	$1.369	-1.33%	BEAR	19	stop
29 Apr 2026 16:00	29 Apr 2026 18:00	$1.410	$1.395	-1.33%	CRASH	3	stop
29 Apr 2026 01:00	29 Apr 2026 15:00	$1.475	$1.459	-1.33%	BEAR	15	stop
28 Apr 2026 08:00	28 Apr 2026 16:00	$1.429	$1.447	+1.07%	BEAR	9	signal
28 Apr 2026 04:00	28 Apr 2026 07:00	$1.517	$1.501	-1.33%	BEAR	4	stop
27 Apr 2026 19:00	28 Apr 2026 03:00	$1.445	$1.517	+4.78%	BEAR	9	exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 14:00	27 Apr 2026 18:00	$1.411	$1.445	+2.22%	BEAR	5	exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 01:00	27 Apr 2026 05:00	$1.413	$1.398	-1.33%	BEAR	5	stop
26 Apr 2026 05:00	26 Apr 2026 09:00	$1.409	$1.404	-0.54%	CRASH	5	signal
26 Apr 2026 01:00	26 Apr 2026 04:00	$1.465	$1.450	-1.37%	BEAR	4	stop
25 Apr 2026 16:00	25 Apr 2026 21:00	$1.499	$1.559	+3.74%	BEAR	6	signal
23 Apr 2026 11:00	23 Apr 2026 22:00	$1.095	$1.101	+0.36%	BEAR	12	signal
22 Apr 2026 23:00	23 Apr 2026 10:00	$1.109	$1.098	-1.37%	CRASH	12	stop
19 Apr 2026 18:00	22 Apr 2026 22:00	$1.097	$1.113	+1.22%	NEUTRAL	77	trail
19 Apr 2026 03:00	19 Apr 2026 17:00	$1.107	$1.095	-1.33%	BEAR	15	stop
18 Apr 2026 14:00	19 Apr 2026 02:00	$1.156	$1.144	-1.33%	CRASH	13	stop
18 Apr 2026 09:00	18 Apr 2026 13:00	$1.202	$1.189	-1.33%	CRASH	5	stop
17 Apr 2026 22:00	18 Apr 2026 07:00	$1.191	$1.232	+3.25%	BULL	10	exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 04:00	17 Apr 2026 08:00	$1.167	$1.169	-0.02%	BEAR	5	signal
15 Apr 2026 21:00	16 Apr 2026 07:00	$1.137	$1.142	+0.19%	NEUTRAL	11	signal
14 Apr 2026 23:00	15 Apr 2026 18:00	$1.095	$1.146	+4.40%	BULL	20	exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 02:00	14 Apr 2026 22:00	$1.130	$1.118	-1.33%	CRASH	21	stop
12 Apr 2026 23:00	14 Apr 2026 01:00	$1.072	$1.130	+5.21%	BEAR	27	exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 02:00	12 Apr 2026 21:00	$1.097	$1.085	-1.33%	NEUTRAL	20	stop
10 Apr 2026 04:00	12 Apr 2026 01:00	$1.121	$1.109	-1.33%	BEAR	46	stop
09 Apr 2026 00:00	10 Apr 2026 03:00	$1.099	$1.120	+1.67%	NEUTRAL	28	trail
08 Apr 2026 15:00	08 Apr 2026 23:00	$1.115	$1.103	-1.33%	BEAR	9	stop
07 Apr 2026 12:00	08 Apr 2026 14:00	$1.091	$1.119	+2.26%	BEAR	27	trail
06 Apr 2026 23:00	07 Apr 2026 05:00	$1.105	$1.105	-0.19%	NEUTRAL	7	signal
05 Apr 2026 13:00	06 Apr 2026 22:00	$1.087	$1.116	+2.43%	NEUTRAL	34	trail
04 Apr 2026 14:00	05 Apr 2026 12:00	$1.102	$1.090	-1.33%	BEAR	23	stop
03 Apr 2026 19:00	04 Apr 2026 13:00	$1.116	$1.104	-1.33%	NEUTRAL	19	stop

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44.0% Win Rate Sharpe 4.40 1,009 Trades -9.9% Max Drawdown

Axie Infinity (AXS) Backtest

Performance Overview

AXS Monthly Returns

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Price & trade markers

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

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