AVAXAVAXAvalanche$6.0880-0.51%
24h High$6.26
24h Low$5.68
Volume$59.7M
Updated14:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / AVAX
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

AVAX Avalanche (AVAX) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for AVAX - Avalanche. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 916 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $158,372. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $6.0880 (-0.51%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Avalanche (AVAX) is a Layer 1 blockchain known for sub-second transaction finality and low fees. Its unique subnet architecture allows custom blockchain deployment, attracting both DeFi projects and enterprise users. AVAX price correlates with broader DeFi trends while responding to subnet launches and institutional partnerships. The asset shows strong trending behavior during risk-on periods.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View AVAX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.90
Sortino Ratio
4.16
Profit Factor
2.07
Calmar Ratio
27.57
Win Rate
51.0%
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Avg Drawdown
-10.06%
Alpha vs B&H
+8,981.9pp
Total Trades
916
Exposure
46.6%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
AVAX

AVAX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
+0.3%
7t
+26.8%
33t
+12.9%
33t
+13.7%
53t
+40.8%
46t
+13.1%
27t
+6.3%
20t
+57.3%
30t
+63.3%
38t
 +609.6%
2025 +4.6%
28t
 		+47.9%
59t
 		+19.4%
45t
 		+41.0%
43t
 		+27.3%
46t
 		+26.0%
44t
 		+16.5%
32t
 		+13.2%
33t
 		+22.1%
28t
 		+34.4%
38t
 		+11.8%
31t
 		+22.0%
29t
 		+1,133.4%
2026 +14.5%
42t
 		+20.6%
42t
 		+5.9%
34t
 		+16.4%
42t
+5.5%
13t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +79.5%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,483.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 916 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.57% on 36 trades, WR 94%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for AVAX over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 36 94.4% +3.57% 57.61 15.6
BULL 64 57.8% +1.49% 3.97 13.4
BEAR 440 57.1% +0.52% 2.28 8.4

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+13.4%
Win Rate
58.0%
29W / 21L
Max Drawdown
-2.5%
€10,000 Invested
€11,337
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
20 May 2026 01:00 20 May 2026 17:00 $9.110 $9.342 +2.41% BULL 17 short_signal
18 May 2026 07:00 18 May 2026 23:00 $9.120 $9.240 +1.18% NEUTRAL 17 signal
17 May 2026 01:00 18 May 2026 06:00 $9.260 $9.157 -1.29% NEUTRAL 30 stop
16 May 2026 21:00 16 May 2026 23:00 $9.310 $9.280 -0.45% BEAR 3 signal
16 May 2026 07:00 16 May 2026 15:00 $9.280 $9.340 +0.52% BEAR 9 signal
15 May 2026 14:00 15 May 2026 22:00 $9.510 $9.550 +0.29% BEAR 9 signal
14 May 2026 04:00 14 May 2026 22:00 $9.670 $9.930 +2.56% NEUTRAL 19 signal
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 02:00 $9.670 $9.710 +0.28% BEAR 11 signal
12 May 2026 14:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $9.810 $9.701 -1.29% NEUTRAL 26 stop
09 May 2026 16:00 10 May 2026 05:00 $9.850 $9.920 +0.58% BULL 14 signal
07 May 2026 15:00 08 May 2026 04:00 $9.450 $9.510 +0.50% NEUTRAL 14 signal
07 May 2026 01:00 07 May 2026 12:00 $9.550 $9.610 +0.50% BULL 12 signal
04 May 2026 11:00 04 May 2026 13:00 $9.140 $9.120 -0.35% BEAR 3 signal
29 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $9.140 $9.080 -0.79% BEAR 3 signal
27 Apr 2026 16:00 27 Apr 2026 21:00 $9.150 $9.190 +0.31% BEAR 6 signal
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $9.250 $9.147 -1.29% CRASH 10 stop
26 Apr 2026 02:00 26 Apr 2026 04:00 $9.360 $9.420 +0.51% BEAR 3 signal
25 Apr 2026 17:00 25 Apr 2026 22:00 $9.320 $9.360 +0.30% BEAR 6 signal
24 Apr 2026 05:00 25 Apr 2026 01:00 $9.310 $9.430 +1.16% BEAR 21 signal
23 Apr 2026 18:00 23 Apr 2026 23:00 $9.270 $9.400 +1.27% BEAR 6 signal
23 Apr 2026 00:00 23 Apr 2026 14:00 $9.270 $9.370 +0.95% BEAR 15 signal
22 Apr 2026 21:00 22 Apr 2026 23:00 $9.460 $9.355 -1.29% BEAR 3 stop
22 Apr 2026 09:00 22 Apr 2026 20:00 $9.570 $9.464 -1.29% NEUTRAL 12 stop
21 Apr 2026 19:00 22 Apr 2026 04:00 $9.280 $9.570 +2.99% BEAR 10 signal
21 Apr 2026 00:00 21 Apr 2026 08:00 $9.280 $9.360 +0.73% NEUTRAL 9 signal
20 Apr 2026 15:00 20 Apr 2026 17:00 $9.170 $9.310 +1.39% BEAR 3 signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 10:00 $8.990 $9.210 +2.31% BEAR 12 signal
19 Apr 2026 03:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $9.290 $9.187 -1.29% CRASH 20 stop
18 Apr 2026 12:00 19 Apr 2026 02:00 $9.410 $9.305 -1.29% BEAR 15 stop
18 Apr 2026 04:00 18 Apr 2026 11:00 $9.680 $9.572 -1.29% CRASH 8 stop
17 Apr 2026 19:00 17 Apr 2026 21:00 $9.790 $9.790 -0.13% BEAR 3 signal
17 Apr 2026 02:00 17 Apr 2026 09:00 $9.630 $9.640 -0.03% BEAR 8 signal
14 Apr 2026 12:00 16 Apr 2026 18:00 $9.380 $9.770 +4.02% NEUTRAL 55 signal
13 Apr 2026 19:00 14 Apr 2026 11:00 $9.260 $9.396 +1.28% BEAR 17 trail
13 Apr 2026 08:00 13 Apr 2026 13:00 $9.030 $9.190 +1.64% NEUTRAL 6 signal
13 Apr 2026 03:00 13 Apr 2026 06:00 $9.050 $9.120 +0.64% BEAR 4 signal
12 Apr 2026 02:00 13 Apr 2026 01:00 $9.090 $9.090 -0.13% BEAR 24 signal
11 Apr 2026 23:00 12 Apr 2026 01:00 $9.370 $9.266 -1.29% CRASH 3 stop
11 Apr 2026 09:00 11 Apr 2026 16:00 $9.270 $9.390 +1.16% BEAR 8 signal
08 Apr 2026 23:00 10 Apr 2026 15:00 $9.100 $9.440 +3.60% BEAR 41 signal
08 Apr 2026 16:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $9.230 $9.127 -1.29% CRASH 7 stop
08 Apr 2026 08:00 08 Apr 2026 15:00 $9.380 $9.276 -1.29% BEAR 8 stop
07 Apr 2026 21:00 07 Apr 2026 23:00 $8.900 $9.470 +6.27% BEAR 3 signal
07 Apr 2026 00:00 07 Apr 2026 20:00 $8.880 $8.781 -1.29% BEAR 21 stop
06 Apr 2026 20:00 06 Apr 2026 23:00 $9.310 $9.207 -1.29% CRASH 4 stop
06 Apr 2026 12:00 06 Apr 2026 19:00 $9.460 $9.355 -1.29% NEUTRAL 8 stop
06 Apr 2026 07:00 06 Apr 2026 09:00 $9.390 $9.460 +0.61% BEAR 3 signal
05 Apr 2026 06:00 05 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.810 $9.000 +2.02% BEAR 17 signal
03 Apr 2026 18:00 04 Apr 2026 15:00 $9.030 $8.950 -1.01% BEAR 22 signal
03 Apr 2026 07:00 03 Apr 2026 09:00 $8.910 $8.940 +0.21% BEAR 3 signal

Start Trading Avalanche Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time AVAX signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → AVAX Signals → View Plans →
51.0% Win Rate Sharpe 3.90 916 Trades -10.1% Max Drawdown