CHILLGUYCHILLGUYJust a chill guy$0.00838350+13.26%
24h High$0.01
24h Low$0.01
Volume$0
Updated16:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / CHILLGUY
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

CHILLGUY Just a chill guy (CHILLGUY) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for CHILLGUY - Just a chill guy. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2025 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 408 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $40,360. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Apr 2025 – May 2026 • $0.00838350 (+13.26%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

CHILLGUY is a Solana-based meme coin built around the viral Chill Guy internet meme that spread widely in late 2024. Like most meme coins it has no protocol utility; price action is driven almost entirely by social-media momentum, attention cycles and speculative flows, which makes it highly volatile. With a short trading history it carries a limited-data flag, and our model applies regime-aware entry timing plus that reduced-confidence warning when generating signals.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View CHILLGUY Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.63
Sortino Ratio
1.93
Profit Factor
2.13
Calmar Ratio
55.74
Win Rate
40.0%
Max Drawdown
-7.7%
Avg Drawdown
-6.20%
Alpha vs B&H
-20,687,573.5pp
Total Trades
136
Exposure
46.8%
Beats B&H
2/3
Sharpe Trend
+1.72
CHILLGUY

CHILLGUY Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025
—
—
—
-1.9%
5t
+11.4%
27t
+28.0%
60t
+0.5%
41t
+30.1%
31t
+32.3%
30t
+70.3%
28t
+49.4%
27t
+33.7%
22t
 +722.5%
2026
+21.1%
31t
+30.0%
28t
+49.8%
27t
+28.0%
25t
+6.5%
26t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +221.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +303.6% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 136 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +3.65% on 12 trades, WR 75%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for CHILLGUY over the latest walk-forward cycle (2026-01-06 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 1 100.0% +3.19% 0.00 17.0
BULL 12 85.0% +4.05% 4.44 16.3
BEAR 175 45.7% +1.16% 2.83 12.1

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Apr '25 – Aug '25 1.95 24% -5.4% 36.6% 161 No
2 Aug '25 – Jan '26 5.26 90% -5.5% 45.9% 111 Yes
3 Jan '26 – May '26 3.67 72% -7.7% 37.5% 136 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+16.0%
Win Rate
30.0%
15W / 35L
Max Drawdown
-3.9%
€10,000 Invested
€11,596
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 16:00 20 May 2026 00:00 $0.01200 $0.01180 -1.46% BEAR 8 stop
19 May 2026 05:00 19 May 2026 14:00 $0.01250 $0.01240 -1.46% BEAR 10 stop
18 May 2026 10:00 19 May 2026 04:00 $0.01140 $0.01280 +12.40% NEUTRAL 18 exit_fp
18 May 2026 01:00 18 May 2026 08:00 $0.01170 $0.01150 -1.46% BEAR 8 stop
17 May 2026 17:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $0.01210 $0.01200 -1.46% BEAR 7 stop
17 May 2026 02:00 17 May 2026 16:00 $0.01240 $0.01230 -1.46% NEUTRAL 15 stop
15 May 2026 16:00 16 May 2026 09:00 $0.01310 $0.01290 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
15 May 2026 13:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $0.01350 $0.01330 -1.46% CRASH 1 stop
14 May 2026 18:00 15 May 2026 08:00 $0.01400 $0.01390 -1.46% BEAR 15 stop
14 May 2026 08:00 14 May 2026 12:00 $0.01280 $0.01310 +1.61% NEUTRAL 5 signal
13 May 2026 15:00 13 May 2026 17:00 $0.01310 $0.01300 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
13 May 2026 13:00 13 May 2026 14:00 $0.01380 $0.01360 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
12 May 2026 18:00 12 May 2026 20:00 $0.01440 $0.01510 +4.47% NEUTRAL 3 signal
11 May 2026 08:00 11 May 2026 17:00 $0.01300 $0.01350 +3.51% NEUTRAL 10 short_signal
09 May 2026 23:00 10 May 2026 12:00 $0.01290 $0.01360 +4.93% NEUTRAL 14 signal
09 May 2026 18:00 09 May 2026 22:00 $0.01290 $0.01280 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 17:00 $0.01330 $0.01310 -1.46% NEUTRAL 8 stop
08 May 2026 03:00 09 May 2026 09:00 $0.01290 $0.01330 +2.72% BULL 31 trail
07 May 2026 18:00 08 May 2026 01:00 $0.01340 $0.01330 -1.46% BEAR 8 stop
07 May 2026 16:00 07 May 2026 17:00 $0.01360 $0.01350 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
07 May 2026 14:00 07 May 2026 15:00 $0.01470 $0.01450 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
06 May 2026 22:00 07 May 2026 00:00 $0.01490 $0.01480 -1.46% NEUTRAL 3 stop
06 May 2026 00:00 06 May 2026 02:00 $0.01450 $0.01470 +1.61% NEUTRAL 3 signal
04 May 2026 23:00 05 May 2026 01:00 $0.01440 $0.01420 -1.29% NEUTRAL 3 signal
03 May 2026 10:00 03 May 2026 14:00 $0.01230 $0.01270 +2.45% BEAR 5 signal
01 May 2026 10:00 01 May 2026 11:00 $0.0099000 $0.0098000 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
29 Apr 2026 19:00 30 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.0095000 $0.01010 +6.67% BEAR 14 signal
29 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.0095000 $0.0095000 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.0094000 $0.0098000 +3.63% BEAR 41 trail
26 Apr 2026 16:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.01020 $0.01010 -1.46% CRASH 24 stop
25 Apr 2026 23:00 26 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.01060 $0.01050 -1.46% CRASH 12 stop
25 Apr 2026 12:00 25 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.01080 $0.01070 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
24 Apr 2026 22:00 25 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.01070 $0.01060 -1.46% BEAR 14 stop
24 Apr 2026 11:00 24 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.01140 $0.01130 -1.46% CRASH 3 stop
24 Apr 2026 03:00 24 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.01180 $0.01180 -0.82% NEUTRAL 6 signal
23 Apr 2026 01:00 24 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.01120 $0.01190 +6.41% NEUTRAL 25 signal
22 Apr 2026 17:00 23 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.01170 $0.01160 -1.46% BEAR 8 stop
21 Apr 2026 13:00 21 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.01140 $0.01130 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
21 Apr 2026 10:00 21 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.01180 $0.01170 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
21 Apr 2026 04:00 21 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.01220 $0.01210 -0.98% NEUTRAL 3 signal
17 Apr 2026 04:00 17 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.0099000 $0.01070 +7.50% BEAR 6 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 15:00 17 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.01000 $0.0099000 -1.46% BEAR 13 stop
16 Apr 2026 11:00 16 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.01020 $0.01010 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
16 Apr 2026 09:00 16 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.01030 $0.01020 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
15 Apr 2026 09:00 15 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.01020 $0.01020 -1.46% CRASH 9 stop
12 Apr 2026 13:00 12 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.01050 $0.01130 +7.10% NEUTRAL 6 signal
11 Apr 2026 07:00 11 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.01100 $0.01130 +2.04% BEAR 3 signal
08 Apr 2026 18:00 08 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.0074000 $0.0073000 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
07 Apr 2026 15:00 07 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.0066000 $0.0073000 +10.58% CRASH 9 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.0067000 $0.0067000 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop

Start Trading Just a chill guy Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time CHILLGUY signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → CHILLGUY Signals → View Plans →
40.0% Win Rate Sharpe 3.63 136 Trades -7.7% Max Drawdown