ETCETCEthereum Classic$7.5600+2.16%
24h High$7.77
24h Low$7.39
Volume$4.8M
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / ETC
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

ETC Ethereum Classic (ETC) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for ETC - Ethereum Classic. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2020 → May 2026 across 2 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 2,279 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $3,361,476,060. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $7.5600 (+2.16%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Ethereum Classic (ETC) is the continuation of the original Ethereum blockchain after the 2016 DAO-fork. Proof-of-work, fixed monetary policy and a strong "code is law" community. Long history (since 2017) provides ample training data; tends to track BTC closely with periodic divergent moves around mining narratives.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View ETC Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
4.13
Sortino Ratio
5.13
Profit Factor
2.25
Calmar Ratio
53.02
Win Rate
48.0%
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Avg Drawdown
-13.25%
Alpha vs B&H
+35,778,964.4pp
Total Trades
1,140
Exposure
57.8%
Beats B&H
2/2
Sharpe Trend
-0.81
ETC

ETC Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
+12.6%
18t
+3.2%
18t
+10.4%
12t
+13.1%
26t
+13.8%
19t
-0.4%
9t
+9.5%
16t
+13.9%
25t
 +105.1%
2021
+38.9%
26t
+112.6%
36t
+53.9%
33t
+119.9%
24t
+162.6%
33t
+61.7%
53t
+31.2%
43t
+28.2%
32t
+42.9%
36t
+41.1%
19t
+9.2%
20t
+7.9%
30t
 +16,861.4%
2022
+40.4%
34t
+52.0%
37t
+37.0%
34t
+1.6%
48t
+118.6%
53t
+51.1%
48t
+64.8%
38t
+91.5%
56t
+43.4%
41t
+23.9%
38t
+32.2%
40t
+3.3%
20t
 +7,418.7%
2023
+18.2%
29t
+25.6%
33t
+34.8%
40t
+14.6%
16t
+14.1%
19t
+56.3%
26t
+5.3%
27t
+3.6%
25t
+0.6%
18t
+2.8%
22t
+48.7%
33t
+26.9%
25t
 +770.9%
2024
+23.1%
36t
+19.9%
18t
+52.8%
44t
+35.4%
36t
+28.8%
28t
+21.2%
28t
+28.0%
34t
+4.8%
30t
+16.1%
23t
+3.5%
22t
+71.0%
39t
+53.5%
41t
 +1,914.6%
2025
+33.8%
34t
+40.0%
46t
+9.7%
35t
+41.2%
37t
+9.6%
33t
+15.7%
29t
+25.1%
32t
+2.7%
31t
+7.1%
27t
+61.0%
42t
+2.4%
36t
-4.8%
32t
 +695.0%
2026
+3.2%
33t
+20.8%
37t
+10.7%
40t
+17.1%
26t
+14.7%
22t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +85.3%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +336.15K× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 1140 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.87% on 127 trades, WR 80%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for ETC over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 127 83.7% +2.87% 82.79 13.8
BULL 436 69.0% +2.09% 6.97 16.2
BEAR 696 47.0% +0.50% 1.84 13.2

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '20 – Apr '24 4.53 12,568x -12.9% 47.9% 1453 Yes
2 Apr '24 – May '26 3.72 25.7x -13.6% 48.2% 826 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+30.8%
Win Rate
52.0%
26W / 24L
Max Drawdown
-4.3%
€10,000 Invested
€13,085
1.3x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
20 May 2026 01:00 20 May 2026 06:00 $8.910 $9.040 +1.33% NEUTRAL 6 signal
19 May 2026 12:00 19 May 2026 20:00 $8.880 $9.010 +1.33% NEUTRAL 9 signal
18 May 2026 11:00 19 May 2026 11:00 $8.710 $8.823 +1.12% NEUTRAL 25 trail
18 May 2026 00:00 18 May 2026 10:00 $8.830 $8.732 -1.29% BEAR 11 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $9.030 $8.930 -1.29% NEUTRAL 58 stop
15 May 2026 12:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $9.270 $9.167 -1.29% BEAR 2 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 15 May 2026 11:00 $9.200 $9.310 +1.01% BULL 44 trail
12 May 2026 15:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $9.360 $9.256 -1.29% NEUTRAL 25 stop
12 May 2026 11:00 12 May 2026 14:00 $9.480 $9.375 -1.29% BEAR 4 stop
12 May 2026 02:00 12 May 2026 10:00 $9.640 $9.533 -1.29% NEUTRAL 9 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 11 May 2026 01:00 $9.700 $9.930 +2.24% BULL 5 short_signal
09 May 2026 17:00 10 May 2026 15:00 $9.500 $9.710 +2.08% BUBBLE 23 signal
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 16:00 $9.580 $9.474 -1.29% BEAR 7 stop
08 May 2026 13:00 08 May 2026 17:00 $9.350 $9.790 +4.57% BULL 5 exit_fp
07 May 2026 04:00 08 May 2026 09:00 $9.150 $9.500 +3.69% BULL 30 exit_fp
06 May 2026 15:00 07 May 2026 03:00 $9.290 $9.187 -1.29% NEUTRAL 13 stop
05 May 2026 15:00 05 May 2026 19:00 $8.920 $8.960 +0.32% NEUTRAL 5 signal
05 May 2026 06:00 05 May 2026 08:00 $8.790 $8.840 +0.44% NEUTRAL 3 signal
04 May 2026 16:00 04 May 2026 18:00 $8.620 $8.740 +1.26% BEAR 3 signal
04 May 2026 11:00 04 May 2026 13:00 $8.600 $8.860 +2.89% NEUTRAL 3 signal
03 May 2026 03:00 03 May 2026 16:00 $8.420 $8.480 +0.58% BEAR 14 signal
29 Apr 2026 19:00 01 May 2026 02:00 $8.260 $8.400 +1.56% NEUTRAL 32 signal
29 Apr 2026 13:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $8.460 $8.366 -1.29% CRASH 6 stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 09:00 $8.280 $8.590 +3.61% NEUTRAL 42 signal
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $8.390 $8.297 -1.29% CRASH 10 stop
25 Apr 2026 16:00 26 Apr 2026 19:00 $8.470 $8.490 +0.11% NEUTRAL 28 signal
23 Apr 2026 03:00 24 Apr 2026 18:00 $8.370 $8.560 +2.14% NEUTRAL 40 signal
22 Apr 2026 23:00 23 Apr 2026 02:00 $8.530 $8.435 -1.29% CRASH 4 stop
19 Apr 2026 23:00 22 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.230 $8.537 +3.54% BEAR 72 trail
19 Apr 2026 11:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.400 $8.307 -1.29% CRASH 12 stop
18 Apr 2026 17:00 19 Apr 2026 10:00 $8.510 $8.415 -1.29% BEAR 18 stop
17 Apr 2026 16:00 18 Apr 2026 16:00 $8.810 $8.712 -1.29% CRASH 25 stop
16 Apr 2026 21:00 17 Apr 2026 09:00 $8.710 $8.670 -0.59% BEAR 13 signal
14 Apr 2026 23:00 16 Apr 2026 19:00 $8.290 $8.800 +6.01% NEUTRAL 45 signal
14 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.560 $8.465 -1.29% CRASH 23 stop
12 Apr 2026 16:00 13 Apr 2026 23:00 $8.130 $8.560 +5.15% BEAR 32 exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 02:00 12 Apr 2026 15:00 $8.230 $8.139 -1.29% CRASH 14 stop
09 Apr 2026 12:00 12 Apr 2026 01:00 $8.380 $8.287 -1.29% CRASH 62 stop
08 Apr 2026 23:00 09 Apr 2026 11:00 $8.460 $8.366 -1.29% BEAR 13 stop
07 Apr 2026 22:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.570 $8.475 -1.29% CRASH 25 stop
05 Apr 2026 04:00 07 Apr 2026 21:00 $8.480 $8.570 +0.93% BEAR 66 exit_fp
04 Apr 2026 21:00 05 Apr 2026 03:00 $8.700 $8.603 -1.29% CRASH 7 stop
04 Apr 2026 14:00 04 Apr 2026 17:00 $8.360 $8.830 +5.48% BEAR 4 signal
04 Apr 2026 05:00 04 Apr 2026 08:00 $8.210 $8.360 +1.69% BEAR 4 signal
02 Apr 2026 23:00 04 Apr 2026 04:00 $7.870 $8.210 +4.18% BEAR 30 exit_fp
02 Apr 2026 02:00 02 Apr 2026 22:00 $7.990 $7.901 -1.29% BEAR 21 stop
01 Apr 2026 07:00 02 Apr 2026 01:00 $8.350 $8.257 -1.29% CRASH 19 stop
31 Mar 2026 04:00 01 Apr 2026 06:00 $8.140 $8.350 +2.45% BEAR 27 exit_fp
30 Mar 2026 08:00 31 Mar 2026 03:00 $8.370 $8.277 -1.29% CRASH 20 stop
29 Mar 2026 16:00 30 Mar 2026 07:00 $7.950 $8.370 +5.15% BEAR 16 exit_fp

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48.0% Win Rate Sharpe 4.13 1,140 Trades -13.6% Max Drawdown