ENAENAEthena$0.086000-3.91%
24h High$0.09
24h Low$0.09
Volume$13.2M
Updated14:33 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / ENA
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

ENA Ethena (ENA) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for ENA - Ethena. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Oct 2024 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 711 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $173,158. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Oct 2024 – May 2026 • $0.086000 (-3.91%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Ethena (ENA) is the governance token of the Ethena protocol, which issues the synthetic-dollar stablecoin USDe backed by delta-hedged ETH positions. Listed via Binance Launchpool in April 2024 with roughly one-and-a-half cycles of history. Price responds to USDe supply growth, funding-rate dynamics, and stablecoin-narrative cycles.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View ENA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
4.01
Sortino Ratio
6.91
Profit Factor
2.09
Calmar Ratio
69.60
Win Rate
38.0%
Max Drawdown
-10.4%
Avg Drawdown
-8.93%
Alpha vs B&H
+338,338.4pp
Total Trades
237
Exposure
62.6%
Beats B&H
3/3
Sharpe Trend
-1.91
ENA

ENA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
+8.6%
29t
+112.9%
29t
+65.6%
37t
 +283.0%
2025 +73.4%
46t
 		+59.6%
62t
 		+53.9%
35t
 		+32.3%
37t
 		+84.2%
48t
 		+37.4%
25t
 		+43.2%
22t
 		-0.5%
22t
 		+12.5%
23t
 		+30.3%
30t
 		+25.1%
52t
 		+20.7%
45t
 		+4,404.7%
2026 +19.5%
37t
 		+33.1%
36t
+19.9%
38t
+33.9%
36t
+12.0%
22t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +185.9%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,631.6% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Low win rate: 38.0% — profits depend on a few large winners.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 237 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.44% on 37 trades, WR 73%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.15% on 286 trades, WR 24%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for ENA over the latest walk-forward cycle (2025-11-09 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 37 73.2% +4.43% 17.90 13.5
BULL 75 40.3% +1.09% 2.58 16.3
BEAR 244 46.7% +1.46% 3.00 13.3

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Oct '24 – Apr '25 4.98 327% -10.4% 37.4% 273 Yes
2 Apr '25 – Nov '25 3.97 117% -6.7% 39.8% 186 Yes
3 Nov '25 – May '26 3.07 87% -9.7% 36.9% 252 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+22.1%
Win Rate
38.0%
19W / 31L
Max Drawdown
-4.9%
€10,000 Invested
€12,209
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 01:00 19 May 2026 22:00 $0.10480 $0.10380 -1.46% CRASH 22 stop
18 May 2026 19:00 18 May 2026 21:00 $0.10420 $0.10580 +1.12% BEAR 3 signal
18 May 2026 10:00 18 May 2026 18:00 $0.10280 $0.10180 -1.46% BEAR 9 stop
17 May 2026 02:00 18 May 2026 09:00 $0.10620 $0.10520 -1.46% CRASH 32 stop
16 May 2026 09:00 17 May 2026 01:00 $0.10720 $0.10620 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
15 May 2026 16:00 16 May 2026 08:00 $0.11040 $0.10940 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
15 May 2026 13:00 15 May 2026 15:00 $0.11650 $0.11540 -1.46% CRASH 3 stop
14 May 2026 09:00 15 May 2026 07:00 $0.11650 $0.12020 +2.61% NEUTRAL 23 trail
13 May 2026 16:00 13 May 2026 22:00 $0.11600 $0.11650 +0.02% CRASH 7 signal
13 May 2026 12:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $0.12120 $0.12010 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
12 May 2026 13:00 13 May 2026 11:00 $0.12290 $0.12170 -1.46% NEUTRAL 23 stop
12 May 2026 09:00 12 May 2026 12:00 $0.12450 $0.12330 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 11 May 2026 22:00 $0.12820 $0.12870 -0.02% BULL 26 signal
10 May 2026 02:00 10 May 2026 11:00 $0.12750 $0.12840 +0.29% BULL 10 signal
09 May 2026 14:00 10 May 2026 01:00 $0.12940 $0.12820 -1.46% NEUTRAL 12 stop
09 May 2026 02:00 09 May 2026 12:00 $0.13280 $0.13150 -1.46% BULL 11 stop
08 May 2026 13:00 09 May 2026 00:00 $0.12320 $0.13370 +8.08% NEUTRAL 12 exit_fp
07 May 2026 03:00 08 May 2026 09:00 $0.11630 $0.12160 +4.13% BULL 31 signal
06 May 2026 08:00 07 May 2026 02:00 $0.11240 $0.11940 +5.65% NEUTRAL 19 trail
05 May 2026 19:00 06 May 2026 07:00 $0.11300 $0.11190 -1.46% NEUTRAL 13 stop
04 May 2026 12:00 05 May 2026 18:00 $0.10270 $0.11300 +9.58% BEAR 31 exit_fp
30 Apr 2026 08:00 04 May 2026 11:00 $0.10380 $0.10280 -1.46% CRASH 100 stop
27 Apr 2026 11:00 30 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.10580 $0.10480 -1.46% BEAR 69 stop
25 Apr 2026 15:00 27 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.10800 $0.10700 -1.46% CRASH 44 stop
25 Apr 2026 05:00 25 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.10900 $0.10800 -1.46% BEAR 10 stop
24 Apr 2026 13:00 24 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.10990 $0.10890 -1.46% BEAR 6 stop
23 Apr 2026 00:00 24 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.10570 $0.10840 +2.01% NEUTRAL 34 trail
21 Apr 2026 00:00 22 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.11180 $0.11070 -1.46% CRASH 48 stop
19 Apr 2026 22:00 20 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.11380 $0.11270 -1.46% BEAR 26 stop
19 Apr 2026 10:00 19 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.11750 $0.11640 -1.46% CRASH 12 stop
18 Apr 2026 00:00 19 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.12510 $0.12390 -1.46% BEAR 27 stop
17 Apr 2026 02:00 17 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.11070 $0.12290 +10.57% BEAR 15 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 21:00 17 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.11520 $0.11410 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
16 Apr 2026 16:00 16 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.10650 $0.11520 +7.73% BEAR 5 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 05:00 16 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.10200 $0.10650 +3.98% BEAR 11 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 22:00 16 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.09510 $0.10200 +6.82% BEAR 31 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 08:00 14 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.09690 $0.09600 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
14 Apr 2026 03:00 14 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.09860 $0.09770 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
14 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.10080 $0.09980 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
13 Apr 2026 09:00 13 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.09200 $0.10080 +9.12% BEAR 15 exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 02:00 13 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.09240 $0.09150 -1.46% BEAR 31 stop
11 Apr 2026 17:00 12 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.09670 $0.09580 -1.46% CRASH 9 stop
10 Apr 2026 03:00 11 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.09380 $0.09670 +2.67% BEAR 38 exit_fp
09 Apr 2026 21:00 10 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.09280 $0.09380 +0.66% CRASH 6 exit_fp
08 Apr 2026 23:00 09 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.08850 $0.09280 +4.43% CRASH 22 exit_fp
08 Apr 2026 18:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.09130 $0.09040 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
08 Apr 2026 07:00 08 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.09230 $0.09140 -1.46% BEAR 11 stop
08 Apr 2026 01:00 08 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.09210 $0.09230 -0.19% CRASH 6 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 20:00 08 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.08380 $0.09210 +9.46% CRASH 5 exit_fp
06 Apr 2026 22:00 07 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.08320 $0.08380 +0.31% CRASH 22 exit_fp

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38.0% Win Rate Sharpe 4.01 237 Trades -10.4% Max Drawdown