LUNALUNATerra$0.052100+1.17%
24h High$0.05
24h Low$0.05
Volume$199,126
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / LUNA
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

LUNA Terra (LUNA) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for LUNA - Terra. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 946 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $125,073. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.052100 (+1.17%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Terra (LUNA) is the relaunched Terra blockchain that emerged after the May 2022 collapse of the original UST/LUNA ecosystem. The new chain operates without an algorithmic stablecoin and focuses on community-driven development. Trading history starts mid-2022, providing roughly two cycles of post-collapse data. Price action is event-driven and responds heavily to ecosystem milestones.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View LUNA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
2.90
Sortino Ratio
3.52
Profit Factor
1.77
Calmar Ratio
18.41
Win Rate
44.4%
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Avg Drawdown
-12.88%
Alpha vs B&H
+10,176.8pp
Total Trades
946
Exposure
55.5%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
LUNA

LUNA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
-2.8%
9t
+50.0%
40t
+33.4%
37t
+42.2%
37t
+39.3%
38t
+18.2%
37t
+1.2%
32t
+66.6%
42t
+43.5%
43t
 +1,001.5%
2025 +16.8%
40t
 		+18.8%
35t
 		+10.9%
50t
 		+27.6%
39t
 		-1.3%
32t
 		+6.6%
38t
 		-2.1%
31t
 		+6.0%
33t
 		+2.8%
40t
 		+14.7%
32t
 		+19.6%
33t
 		+139.1%
44t
 		+623.3%
2026 -6.9%
33t
 		+30.5%
53t
 		-10.8%
33t
 		+11.3%
42t
+17.5%
23t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +41.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,150.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 946 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.71% on 6 trades, WR 83%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.09% on 514 trades, WR 32%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for LUNA over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 6 83.3% +4.71% 21.05 9.3
BULL 34 67.7% +3.83% 11.02 11.7
BEAR 248 47.6% +0.64% 1.89 13.6

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+17.9%
Win Rate
44.0%
22W / 28L
Max Drawdown
-4.4%
€10,000 Invested
€11,787
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
20 May 2026 09:00 20 May 2026 13:00 $0.06300 $0.06360 +0.54% NEUTRAL 5 signal
18 May 2026 00:00 20 May 2026 08:00 $0.06210 $0.06330 +1.43% NEUTRAL 57 trail
17 May 2026 18:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $0.06600 $0.06540 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
17 May 2026 00:00 17 May 2026 16:00 $0.06840 $0.06780 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
15 May 2026 15:00 16 May 2026 23:00 $0.06410 $0.06840 +6.27% NEUTRAL 33 exit_fp
13 May 2026 16:00 15 May 2026 14:00 $0.06680 $0.06620 -1.46% CRASH 47 stop
13 May 2026 13:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $0.06860 $0.06800 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
13 May 2026 03:00 13 May 2026 12:00 $0.07050 $0.06980 -1.46% NEUTRAL 10 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 11 May 2026 03:00 $0.07030 $0.07050 -0.13% BULL 7 short_signal
08 May 2026 05:00 10 May 2026 11:00 $0.07190 $0.07290 +0.98% BULL 55 exit_fp
07 May 2026 04:00 08 May 2026 04:00 $0.06820 $0.07190 +4.99% BULL 25 exit_fp
07 May 2026 00:00 07 May 2026 03:00 $0.07120 $0.07050 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
06 May 2026 21:00 06 May 2026 23:00 $0.07210 $0.07140 -1.46% NEUTRAL 3 stop
06 May 2026 09:00 06 May 2026 16:00 $0.07380 $0.07340 -0.95% NEUTRAL 8 signal
06 May 2026 01:00 06 May 2026 07:00 $0.07470 $0.07400 -1.46% BULL 7 stop
05 May 2026 03:00 05 May 2026 17:00 $0.07190 $0.07860 +8.87% BULL 15 short_signal
04 May 2026 14:00 05 May 2026 00:00 $0.07040 $0.07340 +3.84% NEUTRAL 11 signal
03 May 2026 10:00 04 May 2026 04:00 $0.06940 $0.07050 +1.17% BULL 19 signal
03 May 2026 03:00 03 May 2026 09:00 $0.07080 $0.07010 -1.46% BEAR 7 stop
02 May 2026 23:00 03 May 2026 02:00 $0.07390 $0.07320 -1.46% NEUTRAL 4 stop
02 May 2026 15:00 02 May 2026 22:00 $0.07000 $0.07390 +5.14% NEUTRAL 8 exit_fp
01 May 2026 12:00 02 May 2026 07:00 $0.06770 $0.06870 +1.06% NEUTRAL 20 exit_fp
01 May 2026 01:00 01 May 2026 11:00 $0.06920 $0.06850 -1.46% NEUTRAL 11 stop
29 Apr 2026 19:00 30 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.06160 $0.06630 +7.19% NEUTRAL 19 signal
29 Apr 2026 17:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.06350 $0.06290 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
29 Apr 2026 08:00 29 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.06320 $0.06260 -1.46% BEAR 9 stop
28 Apr 2026 17:00 29 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.06460 $0.06400 -1.46% CRASH 15 stop
28 Apr 2026 07:00 28 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.06680 $0.06620 -1.46% BEAR 10 stop
28 Apr 2026 02:00 28 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.06640 $0.06580 -1.46% NEUTRAL 5 stop
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.06220 $0.06690 +7.12% BEAR 15 exit_fp
26 Apr 2026 20:00 27 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.06420 $0.06360 -1.46% BEAR 10 stop
25 Apr 2026 20:00 26 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.06050 $0.06420 +5.68% NEUTRAL 24 exit_fp
25 Apr 2026 12:00 25 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.06140 $0.06080 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
24 Apr 2026 21:00 25 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.06200 $0.06240 +0.23% NEUTRAL 14 signal
24 Apr 2026 07:00 24 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.06200 $0.06280 +0.88% BEAR 10 signal
23 Apr 2026 01:00 23 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.05800 $0.06020 +3.37% NEUTRAL 21 signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 22 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.05560 $0.05880 +5.32% NEUTRAL 52 signal
19 Apr 2026 21:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.05640 $0.05590 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
19 Apr 2026 10:00 19 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.05680 $0.05630 -1.46% BEAR 11 stop
18 Apr 2026 14:00 19 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.05960 $0.05900 -1.46% CRASH 20 stop
17 Apr 2026 08:00 18 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.06170 $0.06110 -1.46% CRASH 30 stop
16 Apr 2026 02:00 16 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.05710 $0.05740 +0.11% BEAR 7 signal
15 Apr 2026 14:00 16 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.05570 $0.05710 +2.09% BEAR 12 exit_fp
15 Apr 2026 07:00 15 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.05500 $0.05550 +0.50% CRASH 4 signal
12 Apr 2026 20:00 15 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.05460 $0.05470 -0.23% CRASH 58 signal
12 Apr 2026 01:00 12 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.05620 $0.05480 -2.89% CRASH 11 signal
10 Apr 2026 15:00 11 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.05650 $0.05700 +0.47% BEAR 13 signal
10 Apr 2026 04:00 10 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.05530 $0.05690 +2.47% NEUTRAL 10 signal
09 Apr 2026 17:00 10 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.05510 $0.05530 -0.05% BEAR 11 exit_fp
08 Apr 2026 13:00 09 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.05550 $0.05500 -1.46% BEAR 26 stop

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44.4% Win Rate Sharpe 2.90 946 Trades -12.9% Max Drawdown