STXSTXStacks$0.182200+0.00%
24h High$0.18
24h Low$0.18
Volume$500,900
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / STX
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

STX Stacks (STX) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for STX - Stacks. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2020 → May 2026 across 2 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 2,162 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $211,134,935. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $0.182200 (+0.00%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Stacks (STX) brings smart contracts and DeFi to Bitcoin via the proof-of-transfer mechanism. Major narrative leader for "Bitcoin DeFi" with Nakamoto-upgrade catalysts. Long history (since 2019) provides multi-cycle training data.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View STX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.55
Sortino Ratio
3.83
Profit Factor
2.17
Calmar Ratio
26.20
Win Rate
42.1%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Avg Drawdown
-14.99%
Alpha vs B&H
+23,804,030.7pp
Total Trades
1,081
Exposure
47.5%
Beats B&H
2/2
Sharpe Trend
-1.12
STX

STX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
+14.3%
19t
+18.6%
31t
+28.0%
34t
+56.9%
31t
+2.9%
33t
+0.6%
35t
+30.2%
36t
+66.2%
34t
 +510.0%
2021
+78.9%
37t
+227.5%
33t
+77.5%
20t
+54.3%
36t
+142.3%
43t
+24.5%
19t
+49.8%
11t
+10.6%
29t
-4.5%
20t
+109.8%
32t
+68.5%
34t
+45.3%
35t
 +39,239.3%
2022
+17.8%
24t
+20.2%
14t
+5.3%
13t
-5.2%
9t
+53.2%
29t
+28.3%
21t
+6.4%
9t
-0.6%
16t
+0.3%
10t
-2.5%
5t
+22.1%
10t
-1.8%
7t
 +244.5%
2023
-2.1%
9t
+42.7%
21t
+81.0%
32t
+14.9%
33t
+30.9%
33t
+33.4%
21t
-10.0%
25t
+6.6%
20t
-11.8%
15t
+11.7%
20t
+50.1%
40t
+34.0%
26t
 +864.4%
2024
+46.9%
27t
+15.2%
13t
+70.7%
27t
+0.5%
40t
+17.8%
49t
+48.4%
53t
+21.9%
40t
+18.8%
41t
+13.9%
38t
+23.3%
43t
+119.0%
49t
+80.5%
53t
 +3,979.3%
2025
+46.0%
45t
+30.2%
38t
+24.1%
37t
+36.9%
41t
+11.0%
44t
+17.9%
41t
+24.3%
38t
+8.0%
35t
+1.7%
22t
+14.0%
37t
+12.1%
32t
+14.5%
33t
 +745.7%
2026
+11.9%
36t
+40.1%
38t
-4.7%
41t
-1.8%
42t
+2.8%
25t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +50.8%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +21.11K× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -15.8% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 1081 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.26% on 269 trades, WR 79%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.01% on 463 trades, WR 24%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for STX over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 269 80.0% +3.95% 16.88 12.0
BULL 393 54.8% +1.94% 4.93 12.0
BEAR 609 30.6% +0.25% 1.43 11.0

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '20 – Apr '24 4.11 1,443x -15.8% 44.1% 1156 Yes
2 Apr '24 – May '26 3.00 13.6x -14.2% 40.2% 1006 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+3.1%
Win Rate
42.0%
21W / 29L
Max Drawdown
-8.2%
€10,000 Invested
€10,311
1.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
17 May 2026 15:00 20 May 2026 00:00 $0.23890 $0.23650 -1.41% BEAR 58 stop
17 May 2026 01:00 17 May 2026 12:00 $0.23710 $0.23880 +0.41% BEAR 12 signal
16 May 2026 11:00 17 May 2026 00:00 $0.24010 $0.23770 -1.41% BEAR 14 stop
16 May 2026 08:00 16 May 2026 10:00 $0.24160 $0.23920 -1.41% CRASH 3 stop
16 May 2026 05:00 16 May 2026 07:00 $0.24690 $0.24440 -1.41% CRASH 3 stop
16 May 2026 01:00 16 May 2026 04:00 $0.24980 $0.24730 -1.41% BEAR 4 stop
15 May 2026 13:00 16 May 2026 00:00 $0.25550 $0.25300 -1.41% BEAR 12 stop
15 May 2026 05:00 15 May 2026 12:00 $0.26220 $0.25970 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
14 May 2026 21:00 15 May 2026 04:00 $0.26910 $0.26660 -1.46% BEAR 8 stop
14 May 2026 19:00 14 May 2026 20:00 $0.27690 $0.27430 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
14 May 2026 04:00 14 May 2026 09:00 $0.26370 $0.26970 +1.86% BEAR 6 signal
13 May 2026 22:00 14 May 2026 03:00 $0.26680 $0.26430 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
13 May 2026 13:00 13 May 2026 21:00 $0.28240 $0.27970 -1.46% BEAR 9 stop
13 May 2026 11:00 13 May 2026 12:00 $0.28550 $0.28280 -1.46% BULL 2 stop
12 May 2026 15:00 13 May 2026 08:00 $0.26140 $0.29340 +11.78% BULL 18 exit_fp
12 May 2026 02:00 12 May 2026 14:00 $0.26590 $0.26340 -1.46% NEUTRAL 13 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 11 May 2026 15:00 $0.26260 $0.26640 +1.03% BULL 19 signal
10 May 2026 06:00 10 May 2026 12:00 $0.26260 $0.26630 +0.99% BULL 7 signal
08 May 2026 14:00 09 May 2026 02:00 $0.25880 $0.27470 +5.71% BULL 13 short_signal
07 May 2026 11:00 07 May 2026 23:00 $0.25670 $0.25430 -1.46% BEAR 13 stop
05 May 2026 21:00 06 May 2026 09:00 $0.24920 $0.24870 -0.61% CRASH 13 signal
04 May 2026 16:00 04 May 2026 18:00 $0.22520 $0.22690 +0.34% BEAR 3 signal
04 May 2026 11:00 04 May 2026 14:00 $0.22500 $0.22730 +0.71% BEAR 4 signal
01 May 2026 21:00 02 May 2026 00:00 $0.22270 $0.22340 +0.00% BEAR 4 signal
30 Apr 2026 23:00 01 May 2026 13:00 $0.22040 $0.22480 +1.68% BEAR 15 signal
29 Apr 2026 19:00 30 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.21860 $0.22080 +0.60% BEAR 26 trail
29 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.22190 $0.21970 -1.41% CRASH 4 stop
29 Apr 2026 07:00 29 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.22670 $0.22460 -1.46% BEAR 8 stop
28 Apr 2026 01:00 28 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.22660 $0.22440 -1.41% BEAR 22 stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00 27 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.22380 $0.22670 +0.88% BEAR 8 signal
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.22780 $0.22570 -1.46% CRASH 10 stop
26 Apr 2026 09:00 27 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.22970 $0.23290 +0.98% NEUTRAL 16 signal
25 Apr 2026 16:00 25 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.22850 $0.22690 -1.11% BEAR 7 signal
25 Apr 2026 04:00 25 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.23120 $0.23030 -0.80% BEAR 3 signal
24 Apr 2026 11:00 24 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.23070 $0.22990 -0.75% BEAR 3 signal
23 Apr 2026 14:00 23 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.22570 $0.22530 -0.59% BEAR 7 signal
23 Apr 2026 05:00 23 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.22460 $0.22650 +0.43% BEAR 8 signal
22 Apr 2026 12:00 23 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.23110 $0.22890 -1.46% CRASH 17 stop
21 Apr 2026 15:00 21 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.22320 $0.22260 -0.68% BEAR 8 signal
20 Apr 2026 21:00 21 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.22580 $0.22510 -0.72% BEAR 12 signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.21940 $0.22660 +2.86% BEAR 20 signal
19 Apr 2026 05:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.22830 $0.22610 -1.46% CRASH 18 stop
18 Apr 2026 10:00 19 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.23610 $0.23390 -1.46% BEAR 19 stop
17 Apr 2026 22:00 18 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.24210 $0.23980 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
17 Apr 2026 06:00 17 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.23730 $0.24270 +1.86% BEAR 3 signal
16 Apr 2026 15:00 16 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.23530 $0.24090 +1.96% NEUTRAL 3 signal
14 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.21810 $0.22100 +0.92% BEAR 6 signal
14 Apr 2026 11:00 14 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.22290 $0.22440 +0.26% BEAR 3 signal
14 Apr 2026 06:00 14 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.22200 $0.22330 +0.17% BEAR 3 signal
12 Apr 2026 17:00 14 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.21360 $0.22440 +4.63% BEAR 32 signal

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42.1% Win Rate Sharpe 3.55 1,081 Trades -15.8% Max Drawdown