TRUMPTRUMPOfficial Trump$1.7830-4.50%
24h High$1.88
24h Low$1.78
Volume$4.9M
Updated16:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / TRUMP
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

TRUMP Official Trump (TRUMP) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for TRUMP - Official Trump. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2025 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 375 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $14,037. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2025 – May 2026 • $1.7830 (-4.50%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Official Trump (TRUMP) is a Solana memecoin launched in January 2025 around the US presidential inauguration. Trading history is limited to roughly one cycle, with extreme launch volatility followed by sentiment-driven swings. Price action is dominated by political news, social-media activity, and broader memecoin-rotation flows.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View TRUMP Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
1.22
Sortino Ratio
0.98
Profit Factor
1.31
Calmar Ratio
5.67
Win Rate
40.8%
Max Drawdown
-21.0%
Avg Drawdown
-12.36%
Alpha vs B&H
+9,436,075.8pp
Total Trades
125
Exposure
56.8%
Beats B&H
3/3
Sharpe Trend
-1.24
TRUMP

TRUMP Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025
—
—
—
—
 -1.0%
12t
 		+3.9%
35t
 		+10.6%
31t
+1.9%
21t
 -4.4%
23t
 		+43.3%
25t
 		+21.5%
34t
 		-5.3%
22t
 		+82.8%
2026 -8.0%
15t
 		+27.9%
45t
 		-5.2%
45t
 		-12.7%
41t
+4.0%
26t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +1.3%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +40.4% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -21.0% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 125 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: NEUTRAL — avg +2.53% on 6 trades, WR 83%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.34% on 223 trades, WR 28%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for TRUMP over the latest walk-forward cycle (2026-01-21 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BULL 1 100.0% +2.88% 0.00 10.0
BEAR 145 57.8% +0.88% 3.33 17.8

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '25 – Sep '25 1.12 8% -5.8% 40.4% 114 Yes
2 Sep '25 – Jan '26 2.67 32% -10.3% 40.0% 95 Yes
3 Jan '26 – May '26 -0.12 -2% -21.0% 42.2% 166 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
-1.5%
Win Rate
46.0%
23W / 27L
Max Drawdown
-7.0%
€10,000 Invested
€9,852
1.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 02:00 20 May 2026 12:00 $2.057 $2.035 -1.31% BEAR 35 stop
18 May 2026 15:00 19 May 2026 00:00 $2.038 $2.089 +2.34% CRASH 10 exit_fp
17 May 2026 17:00 18 May 2026 14:00 $2.155 $2.132 -1.31% CRASH 22 stop
16 May 2026 21:00 17 May 2026 16:00 $2.188 $2.164 -1.31% BEAR 20 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 19:00 $2.245 $2.221 -1.31% CRASH 30 stop
14 May 2026 23:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $2.394 $2.368 -1.31% CRASH 15 stop
14 May 2026 19:00 14 May 2026 22:00 $2.434 $2.407 -1.31% CRASH 4 stop
13 May 2026 13:00 14 May 2026 18:00 $2.369 $2.434 +2.58% BEAR 30 exit_fp
12 May 2026 22:00 13 May 2026 12:00 $2.509 $2.482 -1.31% CRASH 15 stop
12 May 2026 08:00 12 May 2026 21:00 $2.373 $2.509 +5.56% BEAR 14 exit_fp
12 May 2026 02:00 12 May 2026 07:00 $2.411 $2.385 -1.31% CRASH 6 stop
11 May 2026 09:00 12 May 2026 01:00 $2.444 $2.417 -1.31% BEAR 17 stop
11 May 2026 03:00 11 May 2026 05:00 $2.435 $2.448 +0.37% CRASH 3 signal
10 May 2026 21:00 10 May 2026 23:00 $2.440 $2.480 +1.48% CRASH 3 signal
10 May 2026 02:00 10 May 2026 15:00 $2.445 $2.495 +1.88% BEAR 14 exit_fp
09 May 2026 15:00 09 May 2026 19:00 $2.448 $2.466 +0.57% BEAR 5 signal
08 May 2026 10:00 08 May 2026 15:00 $2.401 $2.413 +0.34% BEAR 6 exit_fp
07 May 2026 10:00 08 May 2026 08:00 $2.361 $2.402 +1.57% BEAR 23 exit_fp
07 May 2026 01:00 07 May 2026 06:00 $2.352 $2.360 +0.18% CRASH 6 signal
06 May 2026 14:00 06 May 2026 23:00 $2.353 $2.365 +0.35% CRASH 10 signal
06 May 2026 09:00 06 May 2026 13:00 $2.423 $2.397 -1.31% CRASH 5 stop
05 May 2026 04:00 05 May 2026 08:00 $2.325 $2.386 +2.46% CRASH 5 exit_fp
03 May 2026 02:00 04 May 2026 11:00 $2.343 $2.317 -1.31% CRASH 34 stop
02 May 2026 11:00 02 May 2026 13:00 $2.273 $2.315 +1.69% CRASH 3 signal
01 May 2026 15:00 02 May 2026 08:00 $2.339 $2.314 -1.31% CRASH 18 stop
30 Apr 2026 13:00 01 May 2026 13:00 $2.373 $2.347 -1.31% CRASH 25 stop
29 Apr 2026 13:00 30 Apr 2026 06:00 $2.431 $2.405 -1.31% CRASH 18 stop
29 Apr 2026 02:00 29 Apr 2026 12:00 $2.483 $2.456 -1.31% CRASH 11 stop
28 Apr 2026 20:00 29 Apr 2026 01:00 $2.516 $2.489 -1.31% BEAR 6 stop
28 Apr 2026 06:00 28 Apr 2026 19:00 $2.515 $2.516 -0.12% CRASH 14 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 06:00 28 Apr 2026 04:00 $2.562 $2.534 -1.31% CRASH 23 stop
26 Apr 2026 22:00 27 Apr 2026 05:00 $2.618 $2.589 -1.31% CRASH 8 stop
26 Apr 2026 08:00 26 Apr 2026 21:00 $2.657 $2.628 -1.31% BEAR 14 stop
26 Apr 2026 03:00 26 Apr 2026 07:00 $2.644 $2.657 +0.33% CRASH 5 exit_fp
25 Apr 2026 13:00 26 Apr 2026 02:00 $2.629 $2.644 +0.41% CRASH 14 exit_fp
24 Apr 2026 23:00 25 Apr 2026 12:00 $2.862 $2.831 -1.31% CRASH 14 stop
24 Apr 2026 17:00 24 Apr 2026 22:00 $3.057 $3.024 -1.31% CRASH 6 stop
23 Apr 2026 21:00 24 Apr 2026 15:00 $2.852 $2.928 +2.50% BEAR 19 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 01:00 23 Apr 2026 20:00 $2.898 $2.866 -1.31% BEAR 20 stop
19 Apr 2026 17:00 21 Apr 2026 21:00 $2.822 $2.832 +0.19% CRASH 53 signal
19 Apr 2026 01:00 19 Apr 2026 06:00 $2.865 $2.848 -0.75% CRASH 6 signal
18 Apr 2026 17:00 18 Apr 2026 23:00 $2.894 $2.879 -0.68% CRASH 7 signal
16 Apr 2026 12:00 16 Apr 2026 16:00 $2.929 $2.981 +1.61% BEAR 5 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 08:00 16 Apr 2026 10:00 $2.893 $2.902 +0.15% CRASH 3 signal
12 Apr 2026 13:00 13 Apr 2026 12:00 $2.781 $2.806 +0.74% BEAR 24 signal
11 Apr 2026 16:00 12 Apr 2026 03:00 $2.833 $2.802 -1.31% CRASH 12 stop
11 Apr 2026 10:00 11 Apr 2026 13:00 $2.802 $2.833 +0.94% CRASH 4 signal
11 Apr 2026 06:00 11 Apr 2026 08:00 $2.817 $2.825 +0.12% CRASH 3 signal
11 Apr 2026 00:00 11 Apr 2026 04:00 $2.840 $2.832 -0.44% CRASH 5 signal
10 Apr 2026 18:00 10 Apr 2026 20:00 $2.860 $2.872 +0.26% CRASH 3 signal

Start Trading Official Trump Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TRUMP signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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40.8% Win Rate Sharpe 1.22 125 Trades -21.0% Max Drawdown