TRXTRXTRON$0.325600+1.37%
24h High$0.33
24h Low$0.32
Volume$43.0M
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / TRX
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

TRX TRON (TRX) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for TRX - TRON. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2020 → May 2026 across 2 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 2,043 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $1,121,001. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $0.325600 (+1.37%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

TRON (TRX) is a blockchain platform focused on decentralized content sharing and has become a major network for USDT stablecoin transfers, particularly in Asia. With consistently high transaction volumes and a deflationary token mechanism, TRX shows steady price patterns with periodic momentum bursts. Its relative stability compared to other altcoins makes it suitable for systematic trading strategies.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View TRX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
1.69
Sortino Ratio
2.88
Profit Factor
1.43
Calmar Ratio
3.17
Win Rate
45.5%
Max Drawdown
-35.7%
Avg Drawdown
-32.66%
Alpha vs B&H
-14,493,675.4pp
Total Trades
1,022
Exposure
54.1%
Beats B&H
1/2
Sharpe Trend
-2.45
TRX

TRX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
+9.9%
21t
+4.7%
27t
+16.3%
28t
+96.6%
47t
+53.5%
36t
+2.6%
16t
+32.0%
38t
+0.5%
28t
 +450.1%
2021
+62.6%
53t
+123.9%
46t
+45.2%
53t
+127.4%
64t
+103.2%
58t
-11.0%
34t
+8.6%
34t
+40.7%
41t
+27.9%
47t
+15.1%
34t
-4.6%
36t
+3.8%
22t
 +4,738.1%
2022
+7.6%
17t
+5.5%
18t
+14.3%
26t
-11.0%
32t
+149.1%
47t
+24.6%
37t
+8.9%
38t
-5.4%
21t
-4.4%
27t
-7.3%
37t
+8.8%
30t
-6.0%
24t
 +234.6%
2023
+6.2%
21t
+10.9%
16t
+10.7%
21t
+4.8%
12t
+6.2%
19t
-6.5%
28t
-0.3%
32t
-1.9%
13t
-0.7%
23t
-3.3%
20t
-13.1%
39t
-8.0%
29t
 +1.7%
2024
+1.8%
20t
-2.0%
12t
-14.5%
45t
-3.1%
16t
-6.6%
14t
+9.4%
15t
-4.4%
30t
+1.7%
22t
-6.8%
16t
-6.8%
24t
+16.7%
25t
+18.5%
56t
 -1.4%
2025 +10.0%
36t
 		+7.9%
28t
 		+13.4%
25t
 		-5.1%
22t
 		+11.3%
29t
 		+3.3%
16t
 		-4.3%
19t
 		-9.0%
31t
 		-0.3%
13t
 		-13.1%
23t
 		-3.8%
18t
 		-3.6%
16t
 		+2.8%
2026 -0.1%
19t
 		-6.4%
17t
 		+8.0%
16t
 		+1.2%
17t
-0.2%
13t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +2.0%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +11,110.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -35.7% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 1022 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.77% on 131 trades, WR 11%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for TRX over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 586 62.1% +0.79% 4.19 14.1
BULL 535 52.9% +0.72% 2.23 18.7
BEAR 339 25.5% -0.44% 0.60 12.9

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '20 – Apr '24 2.91 86.6x -35.7% 45.9% 1480 Yes
2 Apr '24 – May '26 0.46 28% -29.6% 45.1% 563 No

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Feb 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+7.8%
Win Rate
60.0%
30W / 20L
Max Drawdown
-2.8%
€10,000 Invested
€10,782
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
16 May 2026 22:00 17 May 2026 00:00 $0.35500 $0.35410 -0.56% BUBBLE 3 signal
16 May 2026 13:00 16 May 2026 15:00 $0.35110 $0.35330 +0.32% BUBBLE 3 signal
16 May 2026 03:00 16 May 2026 10:00 $0.35140 $0.35260 +0.03% BUBBLE 8 signal
15 May 2026 06:00 16 May 2026 01:00 $0.35320 $0.35210 -0.62% BUBBLE 20 signal
11 May 2026 20:00 13 May 2026 18:00 $0.35080 $0.35010 -0.51% BUBBLE 47 signal
11 May 2026 15:00 11 May 2026 18:00 $0.35130 $0.35160 -0.22% BUBBLE 4 signal
11 May 2026 02:00 11 May 2026 10:00 $0.35020 $0.35130 +0.00% BUBBLE 9 signal
10 May 2026 08:00 10 May 2026 12:00 $0.34970 $0.35130 +0.15% BUBBLE 5 signal
06 May 2026 09:00 06 May 2026 12:00 $0.34320 $0.34410 -0.05% BUBBLE 4 signal
05 May 2026 13:00 05 May 2026 15:00 $0.33860 $0.34340 +1.10% BUBBLE 3 signal
05 May 2026 04:00 05 May 2026 06:00 $0.33920 $0.34040 +0.04% BUBBLE 3 signal
04 May 2026 14:00 04 May 2026 16:00 $0.33870 $0.34050 +0.22% BUBBLE 3 signal
01 May 2026 11:00 01 May 2026 13:00 $0.32590 $0.32660 -0.10% BUBBLE 3 signal
30 Apr 2026 05:00 30 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.32450 $0.32650 +0.31% BULL 14 short_signal
28 Apr 2026 04:00 30 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.32400 $0.32390 -0.34% BULL 47 short_signal
27 Apr 2026 10:00 28 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.32520 $0.32480 -0.43% BUBBLE 16 short_signal
25 Apr 2026 18:00 27 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.32440 $0.32360 -0.65% BULL 31 signal
22 Apr 2026 14:00 25 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.33050 $0.32720 -1.41% BUBBLE 76 stop
20 Apr 2026 10:00 22 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.33030 $0.33320 +0.57% BUBBLE 49 signal
17 Apr 2026 12:00 17 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.32390 $0.32730 +0.74% BULL 9 short_signal
15 Apr 2026 06:00 15 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.32310 $0.32650 +0.74% BULL 9 short_signal
13 Apr 2026 15:00 15 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.32020 $0.32460 +0.96% BUBBLE 34 signal
13 Apr 2026 05:00 13 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.32040 $0.32210 +0.12% BUBBLE 4 signal
10 Apr 2026 05:00 12 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.31970 $0.32040 -0.19% BUBBLE 48 signal
06 Apr 2026 19:00 10 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.31620 $0.32010 +0.82% BULL 80 short_signal
06 Apr 2026 05:00 06 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.31760 $0.31800 -0.28% BULL 9 short_signal
05 Apr 2026 21:00 05 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.31870 $0.31920 -0.25% BUBBLE 3 signal
05 Apr 2026 06:00 05 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.31760 $0.31780 -0.35% BUBBLE 3 signal
02 Apr 2026 12:00 05 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.31600 $0.31800 +0.22% BUBBLE 64 signal
31 Mar 2026 15:00 02 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.31250 $0.31580 +0.64% BUBBLE 41 signal
30 Mar 2026 13:00 31 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.31870 $0.31570 -1.46% NEUTRAL 26 stop
29 Mar 2026 07:00 29 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.31520 $0.31970 +1.01% BUBBLE 3 signal
26 Mar 2026 10:00 29 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.31100 $0.31570 +0.97% BUBBLE 69 trail
23 Mar 2026 12:00 26 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.30810 $0.31380 +1.31% BUBBLE 70 trail
22 Mar 2026 23:00 23 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.31140 $0.30850 -1.46% BEAR 13 stop
21 Mar 2026 14:00 21 Mar 2026 17:00 $0.30860 $0.31080 +0.30% BUBBLE 4 signal
18 Mar 2026 13:00 21 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.30060 $0.31210 +3.40% BUBBLE 66 short_signal
18 Mar 2026 06:00 18 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.30330 $0.30040 -1.46% NEUTRAL 7 stop
16 Mar 2026 22:00 17 Mar 2026 08:00 $0.29550 $0.29980 +1.04% BULL 11 short_signal
13 Mar 2026 11:00 13 Mar 2026 18:00 $0.28860 $0.29090 +0.38% BULL 8 short_signal
12 Mar 2026 13:00 13 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.28870 $0.29020 +0.11% BULL 14 short_signal
09 Mar 2026 11:00 12 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.28500 $0.28940 +1.03% BULL 73 trail
06 Mar 2026 20:00 08 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.28490 $0.29040 +1.51% BULL 49 short_signal
05 Mar 2026 20:00 06 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.28290 $0.28490 +0.19% BULL 24 trail
04 Mar 2026 11:00 05 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.28400 $0.28730 +0.85% BULL 16 short_signal
28 Feb 2026 09:00 01 Mar 2026 10:00 $0.27960 $0.28110 +0.13% BULL 26 trail
27 Feb 2026 20:00 28 Feb 2026 08:00 $0.28220 $0.27940 -1.41% BEAR 13 stop
27 Feb 2026 05:00 27 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.28510 $0.28230 -1.41% NEUTRAL 15 stop
24 Feb 2026 06:00 26 Feb 2026 06:00 $0.28140 $0.28690 +1.64% BULL 49 short_signal
23 Feb 2026 17:00 24 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.28280 $0.28210 -0.56% BEAR 9 signal

Start Trading TRON Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TRX signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → TRX Signals → View Plans →
45.5% Win Rate Sharpe 1.69 1,022 Trades -35.7% Max Drawdown