XRPXRPXRP$1.1468+1.45%
24h High$1.16
24h Low$1.13
Volume$54.1M
Updated16:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / XRP
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

XRP XRP (XRP) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for XRP - XRP. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2020 → May 2026 across 2 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 2,080 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $599,729,077. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $1.1468 (+1.45%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger, designed for fast and inexpensive cross-border payments. Originally created by Ripple Labs, XRP can settle transactions in 3-5 seconds at minimal cost. After years of regulatory uncertainty with the SEC, XRP gained renewed institutional interest following favorable court rulings. Its price is heavily influenced by regulatory developments and partnership announcements, creating sharp momentum shifts that algorithmic models can capitalize on.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View XRP Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.16
Sortino Ratio
3.74
Profit Factor
2.09
Calmar Ratio
29.57
Win Rate
51.9%
Max Drawdown
-18.7%
Avg Drawdown
-17.32%
Alpha vs B&H
+3,491,362.0pp
Total Trades
1,040
Exposure
33.1%
Beats B&H
2/2
Sharpe Trend
-1.73
XRP

XRP Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
+1.2%
14t
+4.0%
21t
+10.6%
9t
-0.6%
35t
+1.9%
14t
-3.3%
19t
+108.6%
42t
+148.6%
65t
 +491.0%
2021
+144.7%
58t
+68.5%
47t
+28.5%
35t
+314.0%
66t
+161.1%
69t
+51.6%
51t
+16.1%
42t
+20.8%
47t
+40.8%
31t
+47.5%
32t
+8.0%
25t
+27.0%
28t
 +34,594.8%
2022
+20.9%
25t
+31.9%
39t
+26.0%
29t
+4.7%
30t
+41.3%
41t
+25.4%
41t
+21.6%
40t
-1.0%
29t
+23.2%
29t
+15.4%
21t
+31.3%
32t
-2.1%
23t
 +720.7%
2023
+15.8%
23t
+2.2%
20t
+7.5%
34t
+7.1%
29t
+4.2%
15t
-1.5%
19t
+4.3%
18t
-3.1%
32t
+0.2%
13t
+10.3%
21t
+2.3%
21t
+0.5%
20t
 +60.4%
2024
+6.2%
21t
+7.2%
22t
+46.5%
35t
+6.7%
26t
-1.0%
20t
+4.7%
25t
+25.4%
30t
+7.7%
29t
+0.9%
18t
-3.1%
24t
+37.6%
34t
+34.7%
15t
 +350.8%
2025 +26.7%
24t
 		+35.0%
20t
 		+15.4%
26t
 		+17.8%
15t
 		+4.0%
25t
 		+1.1%
23t
 		+11.5%
24t
 		+8.1%
9t
 		+0.4%
7t
 		+10.2%
22t
 		+11.6%
36t
 		-5.7%
23t
 		+243.0%
2026 -9.2%
33t
 		+23.7%
36t
 		-1.1%
25t
 		-0.5%
29t
+0.1%
10t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +10.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +59.97K× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -18.7% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 1040 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +1.99% on 219 trades, WR 77%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for XRP over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-21) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 219 76.8% +1.82% 10.36 6.2
BULL 269 48.6% +0.92% 2.62 12.1
BEAR 622 53.2% +0.45% 1.87 8.1

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '20 – Apr '24 4.02 10,532x -18.7% 52.2% 1492 Yes
2 Apr '24 – May '26 2.29 469% -16.0% 51.5% 588 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+0.6%
Win Rate
52.0%
26W / 24L
Max Drawdown
-3.6%
€10,000 Invested
€10,056
1.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
20 May 2026 11:00 21 May 2026 01:00 $1.365 $1.377 +0.63% NEUTRAL 15 signal
18 May 2026 01:00 20 May 2026 10:00 $1.391 $1.377 -1.37% NEUTRAL 58 stop
16 May 2026 07:00 17 May 2026 04:00 $1.409 $1.420 +0.47% NEUTRAL 22 signal
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 06:00 $1.436 $1.421 -1.37% BEAR 17 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 00:00 $1.416 $1.433 +0.93% BEAR 9 signal
12 May 2026 14:00 12 May 2026 20:00 $1.440 $1.439 -0.28% BEAR 7 signal
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 18:00 $1.419 $1.423 +0.00% NEUTRAL 9 signal
08 May 2026 09:00 09 May 2026 00:00 $1.390 $1.429 +2.54% NEUTRAL 16 signal
07 May 2026 14:00 08 May 2026 08:00 $1.403 $1.388 -1.33% NEUTRAL 19 stop
01 May 2026 21:00 02 May 2026 00:00 $1.386 $1.388 -0.09% BEAR 4 signal
30 Apr 2026 10:00 30 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.372 $1.371 -0.33% BEAR 5 signal
30 Apr 2026 05:00 30 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.364 $1.375 +0.61% BEAR 3 signal
29 Apr 2026 19:00 29 Apr 2026 22:00 $1.358 $1.370 +0.69% BEAR 4 signal
28 Apr 2026 01:00 29 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.399 $1.384 -1.33% BEAR 24 stop
27 Apr 2026 14:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.405 $1.390 -1.33% CRASH 2 stop
24 Apr 2026 17:00 25 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.442 $1.435 -0.64% NEUTRAL 9 signal
23 Apr 2026 00:00 23 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.423 $1.426 +0.05% BEAR 15 signal
20 Apr 2026 06:00 20 Apr 2026 09:00 $1.402 $1.424 +1.40% BEAR 4 signal
19 Apr 2026 08:00 19 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.418 $1.427 +0.46% NEUTRAL 3 signal
18 Apr 2026 09:00 18 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.450 $1.438 -1.04% CRASH 7 signal
14 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.356 $1.364 +0.35% BEAR 6 signal
12 Apr 2026 02:00 12 Apr 2026 04:00 $1.334 $1.328 -0.67% CRASH 3 signal
10 Apr 2026 17:00 10 Apr 2026 19:00 $1.352 $1.364 +0.70% BEAR 3 signal
10 Apr 2026 00:00 10 Apr 2026 02:00 $1.345 $1.343 -0.34% BEAR 3 signal
09 Apr 2026 11:00 09 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.333 $1.356 +1.54% BEAR 5 signal
08 Apr 2026 23:00 09 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.344 $1.333 -1.05% CRASH 8 signal
08 Apr 2026 14:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $1.371 $1.357 -1.33% CRASH 9 stop
07 Apr 2026 12:00 07 Apr 2026 19:00 $1.304 $1.318 +0.89% BEAR 8 signal
07 Apr 2026 06:00 07 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.309 $1.322 +0.76% CRASH 3 signal
06 Apr 2026 23:00 07 Apr 2026 03:00 $1.318 $1.316 -0.34% CRASH 5 signal
06 Apr 2026 18:00 06 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.341 $1.339 -0.31% BEAR 3 signal
05 Apr 2026 15:00 05 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.287 $1.301 +0.90% BEAR 6 signal
05 Apr 2026 06:00 05 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.298 $1.284 -1.33% CRASH 7 stop
03 Apr 2026 16:00 04 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.320 $1.316 -0.50% BEAR 9 signal
02 Apr 2026 22:00 03 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.315 $1.318 +0.01% BEAR 15 signal
02 Apr 2026 11:00 02 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.304 $1.314 +0.58% CRASH 10 signal
01 Apr 2026 19:00 01 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.348 $1.352 +0.07% BEAR 3 signal
01 Apr 2026 14:00 01 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.353 $1.362 +0.54% BEAR 3 signal
01 Apr 2026 05:00 01 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.343 $1.354 +0.57% BEAR 3 signal
31 Mar 2026 09:00 31 Mar 2026 17:00 $1.314 $1.336 +1.49% BEAR 9 signal
30 Mar 2026 19:00 30 Mar 2026 23:00 $1.323 $1.322 -0.29% CRASH 5 signal
30 Mar 2026 11:00 30 Mar 2026 16:00 $1.351 $1.342 -0.87% BEAR 6 signal
29 Mar 2026 18:00 29 Mar 2026 21:00 $1.324 $1.314 -0.92% BEAR 4 signal
29 Mar 2026 00:00 29 Mar 2026 03:00 $1.333 $1.337 +0.12% BEAR 4 signal
27 Mar 2026 17:00 28 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.335 $1.340 +0.15% BEAR 20 signal
27 Mar 2026 03:00 27 Mar 2026 10:00 $1.366 $1.351 -1.33% CRASH 8 stop
26 Mar 2026 07:00 26 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.384 $1.375 -0.79% CRASH 6 signal
24 Mar 2026 14:00 24 Mar 2026 22:00 $1.400 $1.412 +0.63% BEAR 9 signal
24 Mar 2026 01:00 24 Mar 2026 03:00 $1.419 $1.413 -0.60% BEAR 3 signal
23 Mar 2026 07:00 23 Mar 2026 11:00 $1.369 $1.412 +2.95% BEAR 5 signal

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51.9% Win Rate Sharpe 3.16 1,040 Trades -18.7% Max Drawdown