Backtests / AXS
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

AXS AXS (AXS) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for AXS. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • Aug 2021 – May 2026 • $1.3790 (-1.01%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Axie Infinity (AXS) was the breakout play-to-earn game of the 2021 cycle and remains a flagship Web3 gaming token. AXS exhibits sharp gaming-cycle moves and Ronin-network ecosystem catalysts. Long training history makes it a robust target.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View AXS Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
11.44
Sortino Ratio
11.48
Profit Factor
31.52
Calmar Ratio
18,025.82
Win Rate
87.8%
Max Drawdown
-16.2%
Avg Drawdown
-10.65%
Alpha vs B&H
+8,178,724,833,593,267.0pp
Total Trades
139
Exposure
39.8%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
+3.53
AXS

AXS Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2021
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
+5.2%
2t
+94.6%
22t
+307.8%
20t
+68.8%
17t
+27.0%
20t
 +1,690.5%
2022
+66.5%
18t
+69.2%
21t
+93.7%
18t
+40.7%
17t
+208.3%
20t
+175.7%
21t
+137.9%
15t
+44.3%
12t
+68.0%
16t
+29.3%
10t
+164.5%
16t
+62.5%
13t
 +209,071.2%
2023
+295.5%
18t
+59.5%
11t
+108.2%
13t
+31.7%
12t
+27.5%
9t
+44.1%
13t
+30.3%
12t
+12.6%
6t
+28.9%
7t
+37.4%
8t
+112.0%
18t
+96.7%
16t
 +34,356.1%
2024
+72.3%
14t
+61.4%
14t
+158.3%
23t
+60.7%
17t
+65.4%
12t
+66.4%
12t
+71.9%
12t
+54.2%
11t
+40.6%
12t
+71.8%
13t
+169.5%
15t
+243.9%
22t
 +188,339.9%
2025
+73.5%
14t
+106.0%
12t
+67.5%
11t
+104.7%
13t
+80.8%
16t
+44.7%
11t
+106.2%
16t
+108.9%
13t
+43.1%
11t
+68.6%
16t
+125.8%
19t
+68.9%
12t
 +126,907.3%
2026
+561.4%
22t
+154.4%
17t
+70.1%
16t
+86.7%
15t
+2.1%
1t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +5,353.1%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +81,787.25B× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 87.8% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -16.2% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 139 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +4.72% on 109 trades, WR 86%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 207 90.4% +4.09% 32.19 16.2
BULL 113 84.7% +4.41% 34.91 27.3
SIDEWAYS 404 89.4% +4.57% 48.55 24.0
BEAR 109 89.7% +5.95% 14.94 21.0

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Aug '21 – Jun '22 9.70 307.8x -16.2% 75.3% 182 Yes
2 Jun '22 – Mar '23 11.01 496.7x -10.7% 86.8% 136 Yes
3 Mar '23 – Jan '24 9.37 20.3x -5.2% 90.6% 106 Yes
4 Jan '24 – Oct '24 11.78 80.2x -7.1% 91.5% 129 Yes
5 Oct '24 – Jul '25 13.55 405.3x -12.5% 92.0% 137 Yes
6 Jul '25 – May '26 13.23 754.9x -12.2% 90.9% 143 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+734.3%
Win Rate
90.0%
45W / 5L
Max Drawdown
-2.9%
€10,000 Invested
€83,429
8.3x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
30 Apr 2026 13:00 01 May 2026 16:00 $1.349 $1.382 +2.09% SIDEWAYS 28 trail
28 Apr 2026 12:00 28 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.433 $1.517 +5.60% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 14:00 27 Apr 2026 18:00 $1.425 $1.470 +2.90% SIDEWAYS 5 exit_fp
26 Apr 2026 14:00 26 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.412 $1.448 +2.29% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 23:00 25 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.104 $1.465 +32.37% SIDEWAYS 33 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 04:00 23 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.098 $1.101 +0.02% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal
22 Apr 2026 05:00 22 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.131 $1.124 -0.87% SIDEWAYS 10 short_signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.088 $1.103 +1.00% SIDEWAYS 32 trail
15 Apr 2026 05:00 17 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.123 $1.179 +4.72% SIDEWAYS 45 signal
13 Apr 2026 22:00 14 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.121 $1.108 -1.41% BEAR 19 short_signal
13 Apr 2026 01:00 13 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.085 $1.065 -2.17% BEAR 7 stop
09 Apr 2026 00:00 09 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.095 $1.136 +3.49% BEAR 21 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 12:00 08 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.096 $1.151 +4.76% BEAR 14 exit_fp
05 Apr 2026 13:00 06 Apr 2026 11:00 $1.092 $1.138 +3.95% BEAR 23 exit_fp
02 Apr 2026 10:00 03 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.071 $1.137 +5.90% BEAR 25 exit_fp
31 Mar 2026 09:00 01 Apr 2026 03:00 $1.099 $1.158 +5.11% BEAR 19 exit_fp
29 Mar 2026 18:00 30 Mar 2026 10:00 $1.124 $1.156 +2.59% BEAR 17 exit_fp
27 Mar 2026 12:00 28 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.099 $1.177 +6.83% BEAR 22 exit_fp
26 Mar 2026 11:00 26 Mar 2026 23:00 $1.073 $1.116 +3.75% BEAR 13 exit_fp
23 Mar 2026 22:00 24 Mar 2026 07:00 $1.113 $1.126 +0.92% BEAR 10 exit_fp
23 Mar 2026 01:00 23 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.085 $1.062 -2.50% BEAR 9 stop
19 Mar 2026 13:00 20 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.176 $1.240 +5.18% SIDEWAYS 13 exit_fp
18 Mar 2026 00:00 18 Mar 2026 04:00 $1.233 $1.272 +2.91% SIDEWAYS 5 signal
15 Mar 2026 13:00 17 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.221 $1.263 +3.18% BEAR 37 signal
14 Mar 2026 22:00 15 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.238 $1.269 +2.25% BEAR 3 exit_fp
14 Mar 2026 06:00 14 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.197 $1.274 +6.17% BEAR 4 exit_fp
12 Mar 2026 03:00 13 Mar 2026 17:00 $1.109 $1.149 +3.22% BEAR 39 trail
11 Mar 2026 03:00 11 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.112 $1.168 +4.77% BEAR 10 exit_fp
08 Mar 2026 01:00 09 Mar 2026 19:00 $1.107 $1.126 +1.35% BEAR 43 trail
04 Mar 2026 04:00 04 Mar 2026 15:00 $1.181 $1.254 +5.98% BEAR 12 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.235 $1.257 +1.40% BEAR 17 trail
28 Feb 2026 07:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.250 $1.333 +6.44% BEAR 19 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 14:00 27 Feb 2026 04:00 $1.359 $1.404 +3.12% BEAR 15 exit_fp
23 Feb 2026 20:00 25 Feb 2026 22:00 $1.236 $1.410 +13.86% BEAR 51 exit_fp
21 Feb 2026 12:00 21 Feb 2026 20:00 $1.334 $1.407 +5.27% BEAR 9 exit_fp
20 Feb 2026 12:00 20 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.291 $1.344 +3.91% BEAR 12 exit_fp
19 Feb 2026 22:00 19 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.260 $1.272 +0.76% BEAR 2 exit_fp
19 Feb 2026 01:00 19 Feb 2026 09:00 $1.266 $1.225 -3.52% BEAR 9 stop
13 Feb 2026 01:00 13 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.368 $1.410 +2.87% BEAR 23 exit_fp
11 Feb 2026 08:00 11 Feb 2026 21:00 $1.500 $1.541 +2.54% BEAR 14 exit_fp
10 Feb 2026 12:00 10 Feb 2026 19:00 $1.487 $1.592 +6.86% BEAR 8 exit_fp
09 Feb 2026 19:00 09 Feb 2026 23:00 $1.409 $1.481 +4.91% BEAR 5 exit_fp
08 Feb 2026 16:00 09 Feb 2026 06:00 $1.256 $1.576 +25.24% BEAR 15 exit_fp
07 Feb 2026 07:00 07 Feb 2026 12:00 $1.289 $1.354 +4.84% BEAR 6 exit_fp
05 Feb 2026 23:00 06 Feb 2026 14:00 $1.299 $1.393 +7.03% BEAR 16 exit_fp
05 Feb 2026 01:00 05 Feb 2026 06:00 $1.499 $1.563 +4.07% BEAR 6 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 11:00 03 Feb 2026 20:00 $1.545 $1.687 +8.98% BEAR 10 exit_fp
02 Feb 2026 12:00 02 Feb 2026 16:00 $1.668 $1.746 +4.48% BEAR 5 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 20:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $1.780 $1.845 +3.46% BEAR 5 exit_fp
28 Jan 2026 15:00 28 Jan 2026 19:00 $2.317 $2.385 +2.74% SIDEWAYS 5 short_signal

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87.8% Win Rate Sharpe 11.44 139 Trades -16.2% Max Drawdown