ATOMATOMCosmos$1.7950-1.64%
24h High$1.83
24h Low$1.76
Volume$731,957
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / ATOM
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

ATOM Cosmos (ATOM) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for ATOM - Cosmos. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2020 → May 2026 across 2 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 2,391 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $1,230,763,882. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $1.7950 (-1.64%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Cosmos (ATOM) powers the Cosmos ecosystem, enabling independent blockchains to communicate through the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol. ATOM is used for staking, governance, and securing the Cosmos Hub. Price movements are driven by ecosystem growth, new chain launches via the Cosmos SDK, and staking dynamics. Its mid-cap volatility provides consistent trading opportunities across market regimes.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View ATOM Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
4.06
Sortino Ratio
5.68
Profit Factor
2.24
Calmar Ratio
48.48
Win Rate
47.0%
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Avg Drawdown
-12.96%
Alpha vs B&H
+14,044,919.8pp
Total Trades
1,196
Exposure
50.0%
Beats B&H
2/2
Sharpe Trend
-2.53
ATOM

ATOM Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
+11.8%
10t
-7.3%
22t
+8.3%
15t
+22.3%
26t
+57.9%
36t
+19.4%
37t
+22.2%
22t
+31.5%
23t
 +315.9%
2021
+39.2%
33t
+312.2%
54t
+69.7%
61t
+159.2%
51t
+215.5%
59t
+87.9%
45t
+93.6%
54t
+51.8%
32t
+370.0%
56t
+65.1%
50t
+50.6%
46t
+25.7%
40t
 +645,416.6%
2022
+133.0%
72t
+73.7%
48t
+30.4%
33t
-6.5%
43t
+156.8%
72t
+80.3%
44t
+83.3%
35t
+33.6%
37t
+68.5%
40t
+37.4%
25t
+15.5%
29t
+9.8%
14t
 +16,322.2%
2023
+27.0%
14t
+13.1%
21t
+21.6%
22t
-0.9%
14t
+4.2%
13t
-3.0%
20t
-0.6%
20t
-1.1%
20t
-5.1%
15t
+4.9%
20t
+2.1%
25t
+22.8%
34t
 +114.5%
2024
+4.5%
23t
-4.8%
19t
+18.6%
23t
+9.1%
22t
+23.1%
27t
+6.9%
28t
+31.6%
30t
+15.3%
38t
+14.0%
34t
+3.0%
35t
+55.7%
34t
+67.5%
41t
 +688.2%
2025 +11.7%
30t
 		+28.0%
46t
 		+31.0%
46t
 		+11.2%
33t
 		+3.7%
31t
 		+0.2%
30t
 		+10.9%
24t
 		+26.1%
33t
 		-6.6%
22t
 		+14.8%
33t
 		+21.8%
30t
 		-3.7%
37t
 		+281.2%
2026 +16.8%
31t
 		+8.3%
32t
 		-8.4%
32t
 		+12.3%
26t
+12.6%
19t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +46.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +123.08K× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 1196 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.39% on 312 trades, WR 78%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for ATOM over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 312 82.0% +2.26% 15.89 10.6
BULL 421 58.7% +1.89% 5.54 14.1
BEAR 722 43.3% +0.45% 1.82 11.7

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '20 – Apr '24 5.32 15,889x -12.7% 48.4% 1585 Yes
2 Apr '24 – May '26 2.80 675% -13.3% 45.5% 806 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+14.0%
Win Rate
46.0%
23W / 27L
Max Drawdown
-4.2%
€10,000 Invested
€11,397
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
18 May 2026 01:00 18 May 2026 03:00 $2.027 $2.040 +0.45% BEAR 3 signal
16 May 2026 10:00 17 May 2026 03:00 $1.923 $2.056 +6.71% NEUTRAL 18 exit_fp
15 May 2026 16:00 16 May 2026 09:00 $1.948 $1.927 -1.33% NEUTRAL 18 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 15 May 2026 15:00 $1.961 $1.940 -1.33% CRASH 2 stop
15 May 2026 10:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $2.001 $1.980 -1.33% CRASH 4 stop
15 May 2026 04:00 15 May 2026 09:00 $2.026 $2.004 -1.33% BEAR 6 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 12:00 $2.047 $2.025 -1.33% BEAR 21 stop
13 May 2026 11:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $2.131 $2.108 -1.33% BEAR 5 stop
12 May 2026 14:00 13 May 2026 01:00 $2.011 $2.163 +7.35% BULL 12 exit_fp
11 May 2026 13:00 11 May 2026 20:00 $2.020 $2.028 +0.21% NEUTRAL 8 signal
10 May 2026 01:00 10 May 2026 14:00 $1.907 $1.975 +3.37% NEUTRAL 14 signal
09 May 2026 15:00 09 May 2026 23:00 $1.936 $1.915 -1.27% BEAR 9 signal
07 May 2026 04:00 09 May 2026 05:00 $1.885 $1.981 +4.89% BEAR 50 signal
07 May 2026 00:00 07 May 2026 03:00 $1.901 $1.881 -1.33% BEAR 4 stop
06 May 2026 16:00 06 May 2026 23:00 $1.924 $1.903 -1.33% NEUTRAL 8 stop
06 May 2026 09:00 06 May 2026 15:00 $1.953 $1.932 -1.33% BULL 7 stop
05 May 2026 16:00 06 May 2026 00:00 $1.871 $1.909 +1.84% BEAR 9 signal
02 May 2026 13:00 04 May 2026 21:00 $1.872 $1.891 +0.77% NEUTRAL 57 trail
30 Apr 2026 18:00 02 May 2026 10:00 $1.882 $1.893 +0.30% BULL 41 trail
30 Apr 2026 15:00 30 Apr 2026 17:00 $1.904 $1.884 -1.33% BEAR 3 stop
29 Apr 2026 16:00 30 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.925 $1.904 -1.33% NEUTRAL 23 stop
29 Apr 2026 09:00 29 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.961 $1.940 -1.33% BEAR 7 stop
28 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.940 $1.964 +0.98% NEUTRAL 18 trail
28 Apr 2026 11:00 28 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.968 $1.947 -1.33% BEAR 4 stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00 27 Apr 2026 18:00 $1.981 $1.981 -0.19% BEAR 3 signal
27 Apr 2026 05:00 27 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.973 $1.996 +0.97% BEAR 8 signal
24 Apr 2026 04:00 24 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.917 $1.962 +2.15% NEUTRAL 7 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 00:00 23 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.857 $1.859 -0.08% BEAR 7 signal
21 Apr 2026 14:00 21 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.794 $1.815 +0.98% NEUTRAL 3 signal
19 Apr 2026 08:00 20 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.773 $1.806 +1.67% BEAR 33 signal
18 Apr 2026 11:00 19 Apr 2026 04:00 $1.797 $1.778 -1.33% BEAR 18 stop
14 Apr 2026 23:00 16 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.741 $1.806 +3.54% BEAR 46 signal
13 Apr 2026 09:00 14 Apr 2026 13:00 $1.714 $1.781 +3.71% BEAR 29 signal
12 Apr 2026 12:00 13 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.733 $1.714 -1.33% BEAR 21 stop
11 Apr 2026 11:00 12 Apr 2026 11:00 $1.781 $1.762 -1.33% CRASH 25 stop
11 Apr 2026 02:00 11 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.798 $1.795 -0.36% BEAR 5 signal
08 Apr 2026 15:00 08 Apr 2026 17:00 $1.757 $1.794 +1.91% NEUTRAL 3 signal
07 Apr 2026 21:00 08 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.740 $1.795 +2.97% BEAR 4 signal
07 Apr 2026 09:00 07 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.685 $1.705 +0.99% BEAR 8 signal
06 Apr 2026 23:00 07 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.703 $1.685 -1.33% CRASH 10 stop
06 Apr 2026 08:00 06 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.737 $1.743 +0.16% BEAR 5 signal
04 Apr 2026 00:00 04 Apr 2026 03:00 $1.692 $1.695 -0.01% BEAR 4 signal
02 Apr 2026 09:00 03 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.631 $1.691 +3.38% BEAR 39 trail
02 Apr 2026 04:00 02 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.629 $1.644 +0.73% CRASH 4 signal
01 Apr 2026 14:00 02 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.692 $1.681 -0.84% CRASH 11 signal
31 Mar 2026 10:00 31 Mar 2026 13:00 $1.684 $1.682 -0.31% BEAR 4 signal
30 Mar 2026 09:00 31 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.689 $1.692 -0.01% BEAR 17 signal
29 Mar 2026 23:00 30 Mar 2026 08:00 $1.634 $1.689 +3.17% BEAR 10 exit_fp
29 Mar 2026 02:00 29 Mar 2026 15:00 $1.658 $1.644 -1.03% BEAR 14 signal
28 Mar 2026 09:00 29 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.699 $1.681 -1.33% BEAR 16 stop

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47.0% Win Rate Sharpe 4.06 1,196 Trades -13.3% Max Drawdown