DOTDOTPolkadot$0.953000-1.14%
24h High$0.97
24h Low$0.95
Volume$3.2M
Updated14:28 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / DOT
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

DOT Polkadot (DOT) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for DOT - Polkadot. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 913 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $271,596. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.953000 (-1.14%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Polkadot (DOT) is a multi-chain protocol that enables different blockchains to interoperate and share security. Founded by Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood, Polkadot uses a unique parachain auction system. DOT price dynamics are influenced by parachain slot auctions, governance proposals, and broader cross-chain adoption trends. Its mid-cap positioning creates opportunities for larger percentage moves compared to mega-cap assets.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View DOT Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.53
Sortino Ratio
4.70
Profit Factor
1.86
Calmar Ratio
33.92
Win Rate
44.4%
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Avg Drawdown
-11.48%
Alpha vs B&H
+10,868.1pp
Total Trades
913
Exposure
69.8%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
DOT

DOT Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
-5.4%
8t
+34.5%
39t
+8.3%
33t
+7.8%
35t
+1.3%
30t
+9.8%
27t
+14.7%
31t
+47.9%
36t
+60.3%
45t
 +349.1%
2025 +14.0%
46t
 		+47.7%
52t
 		+35.0%
46t
 		+51.0%
45t
 		+13.0%
40t
 		+14.5%
39t
 		+19.3%
33t
 		+22.0%
37t
 		+3.0%
19t
 		+55.7%
41t
 		+57.6%
45t
 		+9.9%
34t
 		+1,693.8%
2026 -4.6%
32t
 		+38.8%
40t
 		+7.5%
27t
 		+24.1%
32t
+8.5%
21t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +91.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +2,616.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 913 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +2.50% on 65 trades, WR 72%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.19% on 312 trades, WR 24%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for DOT over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 11 45.5% +2.04% 4.30 11.7
BULL 65 72.3% +2.50% 8.24 14.6
BEAR 368 47.6% +0.75% 2.15 16.2

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+24.1%
Win Rate
40.0%
20W / 30L
Max Drawdown
-5.7%
€10,000 Invested
€12,414
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
18 May 2026 04:00 18 May 2026 16:00 $1.243 $1.230 -1.37% BEAR 13 stop
16 May 2026 23:00 18 May 2026 03:00 $1.267 $1.254 -1.37% CRASH 29 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 22:00 $1.303 $1.289 -1.33% BEAR 33 stop
15 May 2026 12:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $1.333 $1.319 -1.33% CRASH 2 stop
14 May 2026 23:00 15 May 2026 10:00 $1.369 $1.355 -1.37% BEAR 12 stop
14 May 2026 19:00 14 May 2026 22:00 $1.415 $1.400 -1.37% BEAR 4 stop
14 May 2026 03:00 14 May 2026 18:00 $1.323 $1.415 +6.69% NEUTRAL 16 exit_fp
13 May 2026 13:00 14 May 2026 00:00 $1.365 $1.351 -1.37% BEAR 12 stop
13 May 2026 11:00 13 May 2026 12:00 $1.393 $1.379 -1.37% BEAR 2 stop
12 May 2026 14:00 13 May 2026 03:00 $1.326 $1.400 +5.32% NEUTRAL 14 exit_fp
12 May 2026 11:00 12 May 2026 13:00 $1.336 $1.322 -1.37% BEAR 3 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 12 May 2026 10:00 $1.356 $1.342 -1.37% NEUTRAL 38 stop
10 May 2026 01:00 10 May 2026 16:00 $1.335 $1.392 +4.01% BULL 16 exit_fp
09 May 2026 10:00 10 May 2026 00:00 $1.354 $1.340 -1.37% BEAR 15 stop
07 May 2026 15:00 08 May 2026 15:00 $1.306 $1.352 +3.26% NEUTRAL 25 exit_fp
06 May 2026 18:00 07 May 2026 03:00 $1.308 $1.295 -1.37% NEUTRAL 10 stop
06 May 2026 14:00 06 May 2026 16:00 $1.293 $1.314 +1.37% BEAR 3 signal
05 May 2026 12:00 06 May 2026 01:00 $1.260 $1.291 +2.20% NEUTRAL 14 exit_fp
04 May 2026 13:00 05 May 2026 08:00 $1.217 $1.258 +3.11% BEAR 20 exit_fp
04 May 2026 08:00 04 May 2026 12:00 $1.238 $1.225 -1.37% CRASH 5 stop
30 Apr 2026 23:00 03 May 2026 16:00 $1.201 $1.211 +0.60% BEAR 66 trail
27 Apr 2026 16:00 30 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.219 $1.206 -1.33% BEAR 78 stop
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.241 $1.228 -1.33% CRASH 10 stop
24 Apr 2026 02:00 27 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.244 $1.267 +1.66% NEUTRAL 71 signal
23 Apr 2026 00:00 24 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.269 $1.255 -1.33% BEAR 26 stop
22 Apr 2026 18:00 22 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.295 $1.281 -1.33% CRASH 6 stop
19 Apr 2026 07:00 22 Apr 2026 04:00 $1.260 $1.310 +3.77% BEAR 70 signal
18 Apr 2026 11:00 19 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.289 $1.275 -1.33% BEAR 20 stop
17 Apr 2026 16:00 18 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.335 $1.321 -1.33% CRASH 19 stop
17 Apr 2026 09:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $1.321 $1.343 +1.47% BEAR 5 exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 02:00 17 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.305 $1.329 +1.65% BEAR 6 signal
16 Apr 2026 23:00 17 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.326 $1.312 -1.33% CRASH 3 stop
16 Apr 2026 17:00 16 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.286 $1.328 +3.07% CRASH 4 signal
15 Apr 2026 11:00 16 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.167 $1.321 +12.98% BEAR 29 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 11:00 15 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.191 $1.178 -1.33% BEAR 24 stop
13 Apr 2026 23:00 14 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.215 $1.202 -1.33% BEAR 12 stop
13 Apr 2026 11:00 13 Apr 2026 22:00 $1.160 $1.215 +4.54% CRASH 12 exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 06:00 13 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.229 $1.216 -1.33% CRASH 29 stop
10 Apr 2026 00:00 12 Apr 2026 05:00 $1.294 $1.280 -1.33% CRASH 54 stop
09 Apr 2026 22:00 09 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.323 $1.309 -1.33% CRASH 2 stop
08 Apr 2026 23:00 09 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.277 $1.323 +3.41% BEAR 23 exit_fp
08 Apr 2026 17:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $1.298 $1.284 -1.33% CRASH 6 stop
08 Apr 2026 07:00 08 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.327 $1.313 -1.33% BEAR 10 stop
06 Apr 2026 23:00 08 Apr 2026 05:00 $1.241 $1.323 +6.41% CRASH 31 exit_fp
06 Apr 2026 20:00 06 Apr 2026 22:00 $1.269 $1.256 -1.37% CRASH 3 stop
06 Apr 2026 14:00 06 Apr 2026 19:00 $1.287 $1.273 -1.33% BEAR 6 stop
06 Apr 2026 09:00 06 Apr 2026 11:00 $1.271 $1.305 +2.48% CRASH 3 signal
05 Apr 2026 06:00 06 Apr 2026 03:00 $1.228 $1.257 +2.17% CRASH 22 signal
04 Apr 2026 18:00 05 Apr 2026 04:00 $1.259 $1.246 -1.37% BEAR 11 stop
02 Apr 2026 02:00 04 Apr 2026 17:00 $1.229 $1.259 +2.25% BEAR 64 exit_fp

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44.4% Win Rate Sharpe 3.53 913 Trades -11.5% Max Drawdown