HYPEHYPEHyperliquid$61.7390+2.08%
24h High$62.26
24h Low$59.71
Volume$0
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / HYPE
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

HYPE Hyperliquid (HYPE) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for HYPE - Hyperliquid. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2025 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 354 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $32,933. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Apr 2025 – May 2026 • $61.7390 (+2.08%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is the native token of a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain purpose-built to run a fully on-chain perpetual-futures exchange, including its order book and matching engine. Launched with a large community airdrop in late 2024, Hyperliquid rapidly became one of the leading decentralized derivatives venues by trading volume. As a young high-momentum asset HYPE shows sharp trending behaviour; with under two years of price history it carries a limited-data flag that our model factors into its signal confidence.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View HYPE Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.24
Sortino Ratio
3.75
Profit Factor
2.20
Calmar Ratio
33.18
Win Rate
44.5%
Max Drawdown
-9.4%
Avg Drawdown
-8.06%
Alpha vs B&H
+90,036,217.1pp
Total Trades
118
Exposure
36.8%
Beats B&H
1/3
Sharpe Trend
+0.10
HYPE

HYPE Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025
—
—
—
—
+12.1%
14t
+33.4%
26t
+21.2%
17t
+39.1%
20t
+27.3%
57t
+14.8%
32t
+8.8%
32t
-8.8%
14t
 +265.4%
2026
+35.9%
25t
+43.4%
29t
+13.6%
29t
+13.0%
41t
-1.7%
18t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +145.9%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +229.3% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 118 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +1.27% on 117 trades, WR 68%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -1.12% on 39 trades, WR 3%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for HYPE over the latest walk-forward cycle (2026-01-12 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 117 72.3% +1.81% 28.76 8.9
BULL 77 28.9% +0.00% 1.00 10.5
BEAR 54 24.6% +0.43% 1.94 9.1

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Apr '25 – Sep '25 4.12 56% -8.5% 48.7% 78 No
2 Sep '25 – Jan '26 1.39 22% -9.4% 34.8% 138 Yes
3 Jan '26 – May '26 4.22 73% -6.3% 50.0% 138 No

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+7.1%
Win Rate
44.0%
22W / 28L
Max Drawdown
-4.5%
€10,000 Invested
€10,711
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
16 May 2026 07:00 16 May 2026 21:00 $35.764 $36.058 +0.72% NEUTRAL 15 signal
16 May 2026 05:00 16 May 2026 06:00 $36.787 $36.371 -1.27% BEAR 2 stop
15 May 2026 13:00 16 May 2026 04:00 $37.285 $36.863 -1.27% NEUTRAL 16 stop
13 May 2026 22:00 14 May 2026 08:00 $33.137 $33.299 +0.39% BULL 11 short_signal
13 May 2026 15:00 13 May 2026 18:00 $33.274 $33.413 +0.32% NEUTRAL 4 signal
12 May 2026 16:00 13 May 2026 10:00 $34.383 $33.994 -1.27% BULL 19 stop
11 May 2026 12:00 12 May 2026 14:00 $35.083 $34.686 -1.27% BULL 27 stop
11 May 2026 08:00 11 May 2026 11:00 $35.630 $35.227 -1.27% NEUTRAL 4 stop
10 May 2026 08:00 10 May 2026 10:00 $36.528 $36.352 -0.58% BUBBLE 3 signal
09 May 2026 20:00 10 May 2026 07:00 $36.500 $36.528 -0.02% BUBBLE 12 signal
09 May 2026 17:00 09 May 2026 19:00 $36.583 $36.500 -0.33% BUBBLE 3 signal
09 May 2026 14:00 09 May 2026 16:00 $36.981 $36.583 -1.18% BUBBLE 3 signal
08 May 2026 13:00 08 May 2026 15:00 $36.091 $36.504 +1.04% BUBBLE 3 signal
06 May 2026 16:00 06 May 2026 17:00 $37.155 $36.735 -1.27% BULL 2 stop
06 May 2026 00:00 06 May 2026 02:00 $37.441 $37.560 +0.22% BUBBLE 3 signal
05 May 2026 06:00 05 May 2026 10:00 $36.578 $37.446 +2.27% BULL 5 exit_fp
04 May 2026 23:00 05 May 2026 05:00 $35.920 $36.578 +1.73% BUBBLE 7 signal
03 May 2026 12:00 04 May 2026 19:00 $35.080 $35.633 +1.47% BUBBLE 32 signal
30 Apr 2026 13:00 30 Apr 2026 18:00 $39.150 $39.150 -0.10% BULL 6 short_signal
30 Apr 2026 02:00 30 Apr 2026 10:00 $39.690 $39.241 -1.27% BULL 9 stop
29 Apr 2026 23:00 30 Apr 2026 01:00 $39.960 $40.180 +0.45% BUBBLE 3 signal
29 Apr 2026 20:00 29 Apr 2026 22:00 $39.760 $39.970 +0.43% BUBBLE 3 signal
29 Apr 2026 09:00 29 Apr 2026 19:00 $40.590 $39.940 -1.70% BUBBLE 11 signal
29 Apr 2026 06:00 29 Apr 2026 08:00 $40.560 $40.370 -0.57% BUBBLE 3 signal
29 Apr 2026 01:00 29 Apr 2026 03:00 $40.230 $40.320 +0.12% BUBBLE 3 signal
28 Apr 2026 15:00 28 Apr 2026 20:00 $39.750 $39.870 +0.20% BULL 6 short_signal
28 Apr 2026 06:00 28 Apr 2026 07:00 $41.190 $40.724 -1.27% BULL 2 stop
28 Apr 2026 01:00 28 Apr 2026 03:00 $41.710 $41.238 -1.27% BULL 3 stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00 28 Apr 2026 00:00 $41.710 $41.670 -0.20% BUBBLE 9 signal
27 Apr 2026 12:00 27 Apr 2026 14:00 $42.300 $42.580 +0.56% BUBBLE 3 signal
27 Apr 2026 09:00 27 Apr 2026 11:00 $42.390 $42.390 -0.10% BUBBLE 3 signal
25 Apr 2026 17:00 25 Apr 2026 19:00 $41.090 $41.260 +0.31% BUBBLE 3 signal
25 Apr 2026 01:00 25 Apr 2026 05:00 $41.110 $41.130 -0.05% BULL 5 short_signal
24 Apr 2026 10:00 24 Apr 2026 13:00 $34.886 $40.890 +17.09% NEUTRAL 4 signal
23 Apr 2026 07:00 23 Apr 2026 11:00 $35.003 $35.198 +0.46% BUBBLE 5 signal
23 Apr 2026 04:00 23 Apr 2026 06:00 $34.928 $35.003 +0.11% BUBBLE 3 signal
22 Apr 2026 23:00 23 Apr 2026 01:00 $35.322 $35.034 -0.91% BUBBLE 3 signal
22 Apr 2026 19:00 22 Apr 2026 21:00 $35.142 $35.500 +0.92% BUBBLE 3 signal
21 Apr 2026 20:00 22 Apr 2026 18:00 $33.643 $35.142 +4.35% BUBBLE 23 signal
21 Apr 2026 01:00 21 Apr 2026 19:00 $34.685 $34.293 -1.27% NEUTRAL 19 stop
20 Apr 2026 19:00 20 Apr 2026 22:00 $35.005 $34.513 -1.50% BUBBLE 4 signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 03:00 $34.891 $34.990 +0.18% NEUTRAL 5 signal
19 Apr 2026 19:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $35.422 $35.021 -1.27% NEUTRAL 4 stop
19 Apr 2026 08:00 19 Apr 2026 11:00 $36.696 $36.998 +0.72% BUBBLE 4 signal
19 Apr 2026 05:00 19 Apr 2026 07:00 $37.064 $36.696 -1.09% BUBBLE 3 signal
19 Apr 2026 01:00 19 Apr 2026 04:00 $37.184 $37.064 -0.42% BUBBLE 4 signal
18 Apr 2026 14:00 18 Apr 2026 16:00 $37.539 $37.573 -0.01% BUBBLE 3 signal
17 Apr 2026 19:00 17 Apr 2026 21:00 $37.534 $37.947 +1.00% BUBBLE 3 signal
16 Apr 2026 15:00 16 Apr 2026 20:00 $37.842 $37.414 -1.27% BULL 6 stop
16 Apr 2026 12:00 16 Apr 2026 14:00 $38.084 $37.842 -0.73% BUBBLE 3 signal

Start Trading Hyperliquid Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time HYPE signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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44.5% Win Rate Sharpe 3.24 118 Trades -9.4% Max Drawdown