SNXSNXSynthetix$0.239000-1.65%
24h High$0.25
24h Low$0.24
Volume$184,328
Updated14:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / SNX
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

SNX Synthetix (SNX) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for SNX - Synthetix. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 862 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $175,260. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.239000 (-1.65%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Synthetix (SNX) is a long-running DeFi protocol enabling synthetic exposure to crypto, FX and commodities. Now powering perp DEXes on Optimism and Base. Strong cyclical history with DeFi-correlated swings; well-suited for momentum-based strategies.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View SNX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.23
Sortino Ratio
4.32
Profit Factor
1.96
Calmar Ratio
22.79
Win Rate
39.7%
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Avg Drawdown
-13.00%
Alpha vs B&H
+10,625.4pp
Total Trades
862
Exposure
66.1%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
SNX

SNX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
+6.4%
12t
+34.8%
35t
+4.2%
31t
+25.3%
32t
+27.6%
38t
+21.4%
30t
+2.9%
34t
+88.9%
30t
+55.1%
51t
 +774.6%
2025
+15.1%
27t
+27.2%
39t
+58.5%
34t
+23.7%
29t
+6.5%
36t
+44.6%
32t
+8.9%
30t
+56.0%
38t
-1.5%
35t
+178.5%
70t
+3.1%
36t
-0.3%
23t
 +2,016.0%
2026
+19.2%
34t
+41.9%
27t
+5.3%
29t
+16.3%
31t
+9.9%
19t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +127.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,652.6% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Low win rate: 39.7% — profits depend on a few large winners.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 862 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +5.01% on 29 trades, WR 69%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.27% on 318 trades, WR 21%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for SNX over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 29 69.0% +5.01% 15.13 7.6
BULL 72 38.9% +1.24% 2.58 9.5
BEAR 298 48.0% +1.05% 2.53 18.0

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+16.6%
Win Rate
50.0%
25W / 25L
Max Drawdown
-3.2%
€10,000 Invested
€11,663
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 23:00 20 May 2026 06:00 $0.30500 $0.31000 +1.22% NEUTRAL 8 signal
19 May 2026 12:00 19 May 2026 14:00 $0.30700 $0.30500 -1.06% NEUTRAL 3 signal
19 May 2026 01:00 19 May 2026 05:00 $0.31000 $0.31000 -0.41% NEUTRAL 5 signal
18 May 2026 07:00 18 May 2026 19:00 $0.30300 $0.30700 +0.91% NEUTRAL 13 signal
18 May 2026 04:00 18 May 2026 05:00 $0.30600 $0.30310 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
16 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 21:00 $0.30900 $0.31200 +0.56% BEAR 8 signal
16 May 2026 01:00 16 May 2026 12:00 $0.32100 $0.31800 -1.46% BEAR 12 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 15 May 2026 15:00 $0.32600 $0.32290 -1.46% BEAR 48 stop
12 May 2026 16:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $0.34600 $0.34270 -1.46% BEAR 24 stop
12 May 2026 01:00 12 May 2026 15:00 $0.35200 $0.34870 -1.46% NEUTRAL 15 stop
11 May 2026 04:00 11 May 2026 10:00 $0.35300 $0.35600 +0.44% NEUTRAL 7 signal
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 14:00 $0.35800 $0.36200 +0.70% BULL 5 short_signal
08 May 2026 07:00 08 May 2026 14:00 $0.33700 $0.34800 +2.84% BULL 8 short_signal
08 May 2026 00:00 08 May 2026 06:00 $0.34300 $0.33980 -1.46% NEUTRAL 7 stop
07 May 2026 18:00 07 May 2026 23:00 $0.32500 $0.34300 +5.11% BULL 6 exit_fp
03 May 2026 08:00 07 May 2026 17:00 $0.31900 $0.32680 +1.92% NEUTRAL 106 trail
03 May 2026 02:00 03 May 2026 07:00 $0.32300 $0.32000 -1.46% NEUTRAL 6 stop
02 May 2026 13:00 03 May 2026 01:00 $0.31600 $0.32810 +3.28% BEAR 13 trail
30 Apr 2026 23:00 02 May 2026 10:00 $0.29800 $0.31300 +4.60% NEUTRAL 36 signal
29 Apr 2026 16:00 30 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.31100 $0.30810 -1.46% CRASH 31 stop
29 Apr 2026 13:00 29 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.31500 $0.31200 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
28 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.31000 $0.31620 +1.48% NEUTRAL 22 trail
27 Apr 2026 06:00 28 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.31800 $0.31500 -1.46% BEAR 19 stop
26 Apr 2026 02:00 27 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.29900 $0.33000 +9.92% BEAR 23 exit_fp
25 Apr 2026 15:00 26 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.30700 $0.30410 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
19 Apr 2026 13:00 24 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.29400 $0.30000 +1.73% NEUTRAL 117 signal
18 Apr 2026 22:00 19 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.29800 $0.29500 -1.41% BEAR 15 stop
18 Apr 2026 09:00 18 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.30600 $0.30300 -1.41% CRASH 13 stop
18 Apr 2026 03:00 18 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.30700 $0.31200 +1.31% NEUTRAL 4 signal
17 Apr 2026 19:00 18 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.31000 $0.30710 -1.46% NEUTRAL 8 stop
17 Apr 2026 11:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.30600 $0.31200 +1.54% NEUTRAL 3 signal
17 Apr 2026 06:00 17 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.29700 $0.30800 +3.28% NEUTRAL 3 signal
14 Apr 2026 20:00 17 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.28500 $0.30010 +4.75% BEAR 58 trail
14 Apr 2026 17:00 14 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.28900 $0.28630 -1.46% CRASH 3 stop
12 Apr 2026 22:00 14 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.28200 $0.28840 +1.75% BEAR 43 trail
12 Apr 2026 02:00 12 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.28500 $0.28230 -1.46% BEAR 20 stop
11 Apr 2026 05:00 12 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.29000 $0.28730 -1.46% CRASH 21 stop
09 Apr 2026 15:00 11 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.28900 $0.29220 +0.57% BEAR 38 trail
08 Apr 2026 22:00 09 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.29200 $0.28920 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
07 Apr 2026 09:00 08 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.28900 $0.29410 +1.24% BEAR 37 trail
06 Apr 2026 21:00 07 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.29200 $0.28920 -1.46% CRASH 12 stop
06 Apr 2026 16:00 06 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.29600 $0.29320 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
06 Apr 2026 10:00 06 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.28900 $0.29300 +0.97% CRASH 3 signal
06 Apr 2026 01:00 06 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.28600 $0.28900 +0.64% CRASH 8 signal
05 Apr 2026 06:00 05 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.27400 $0.28900 +5.04% CRASH 17 signal
04 Apr 2026 03:00 05 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.27600 $0.27900 +0.67% BEAR 22 signal
03 Apr 2026 10:00 04 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.28300 $0.28030 -1.46% BEAR 16 stop
01 Apr 2026 23:00 02 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.28100 $0.27830 -1.46% BEAR 22 stop
01 Apr 2026 06:00 01 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.29300 $0.29020 -1.46% CRASH 17 stop
28 Mar 2026 22:00 01 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.27900 $0.29300 +4.59% CRASH 78 signal

Start Trading Synthetix Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time SNX signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → SNX Signals → View Plans →
39.7% Win Rate Sharpe 3.23 862 Trades -13.0% Max Drawdown