TAOTAOBittensor$229.50+1.64%
24h High$235.00
24h Low$222.10
Volume$61.9M
Updated14:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / TAO
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

TAO Bittensor (TAO) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for TAO - Bittensor. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Oct 2024 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 638 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $204,249. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Oct 2024 – May 2026 • $229.50 (+1.64%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bittensor (TAO) is a decentralized machine learning network where participants are rewarded for contributing AI models. As the leading decentralized AI protocol, TAO prices are heavily influenced by AI sector developments and network growth metrics. The token shows strong momentum patterns during AI narrative cycles and has distinct volatility characteristics compared to other assets.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View TAO Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
4.56
Sortino Ratio
6.39
Profit Factor
2.38
Calmar Ratio
88.97
Win Rate
40.9%
Max Drawdown
-10.0%
Avg Drawdown
-7.84%
Alpha vs B&H
-392,164.6pp
Total Trades
213
Exposure
53.8%
Beats B&H
3/3
Sharpe Trend
-1.13
TAO

TAO Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
-0.3%
12t
+16.3%
36t
+29.6%
38t
 +50.2%
2025 +21.2%
32t
 		+60.5%
44t
 		+71.6%
43t
 		+171.4%
40t
 		+71.3%
46t
 		+22.6%
29t
 		+6.9%
17t
+12.9%
18t
+8.0%
25t
+92.2%
37t
+28.8%
45t
+29.7%
35t
 +7,865.1%
2026
+8.9%
30t
+57.4%
26t
+25.2%
36t
+17.4%
29t
+14.9%
20t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +189.4%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,942.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 213 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.32% on 36 trades, WR 86%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.27% on 171 trades, WR 11%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for TAO over the latest walk-forward cycle (2025-11-11 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 36 85.5% +2.26% 31.74 11.3
BULL 90 56.0% +1.55% 3.69 13.6
BEAR 230 42.7% +1.22% 2.97 11.3

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Oct '24 – May '25 5.19 280% -6.9% 41.0% 249 Yes
2 May '25 – Nov '25 4.42 132% -6.5% 45.2% 186 Yes
3 Nov '25 – May '26 4.06 132% -10.0% 36.5% 203 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+16.1%
Win Rate
46.0%
23W / 27L
Max Drawdown
-4.6%
€10,000 Invested
€11,614
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
18 May 2026 07:00 18 May 2026 18:00 $258.10 $255.18 -1.27% NEUTRAL 12 stop
18 May 2026 01:00 18 May 2026 06:00 $261.70 $258.74 -1.27% BEAR 6 stop
17 May 2026 23:00 18 May 2026 00:00 $264.30 $261.31 -1.27% NEUTRAL 2 stop
16 May 2026 07:00 17 May 2026 22:00 $269.40 $266.35 -1.27% BULL 40 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 06:00 $291.20 $287.91 -1.27% BEAR 17 stop
15 May 2026 06:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $301.30 $297.89 -1.27% NEUTRAL 8 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 15 May 2026 04:00 $293.60 $306.00 +4.12% BUBBLE 37 signal
13 May 2026 12:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $303.50 $300.07 -1.27% NEUTRAL 4 stop
12 May 2026 15:00 13 May 2026 11:00 $308.00 $304.52 -1.27% BULL 21 stop
12 May 2026 03:00 12 May 2026 05:00 $318.00 $321.10 +0.87% BUBBLE 3 signal
11 May 2026 06:00 11 May 2026 09:00 $322.80 $324.50 +0.43% BUBBLE 4 signal
10 May 2026 14:00 10 May 2026 18:00 $318.30 $328.00 +2.94% BULL 5 exit_fp
09 May 2026 13:00 10 May 2026 04:00 $310.10 $311.60 +0.38% BUBBLE 16 signal
09 May 2026 07:00 09 May 2026 10:00 $310.80 $312.30 +0.38% BUBBLE 4 signal
06 May 2026 03:00 06 May 2026 10:00 $284.90 $304.10 +6.63% BULL 8 short_signal
04 May 2026 16:00 05 May 2026 04:00 $278.00 $285.50 +2.60% BULL 13 signal
04 May 2026 11:00 04 May 2026 15:00 $284.50 $281.28 -1.27% NEUTRAL 5 stop
01 May 2026 19:00 02 May 2026 00:00 $274.10 $271.00 -1.27% NEUTRAL 6 stop
01 May 2026 13:00 01 May 2026 18:00 $263.00 $274.10 +4.12% NEUTRAL 6 exit_fp
30 Apr 2026 15:00 01 May 2026 09:00 $249.20 $261.40 +4.79% BULL 19 exit_fp
29 Apr 2026 15:00 30 Apr 2026 14:00 $251.80 $248.95 -1.27% BULL 24 stop
28 Apr 2026 00:00 29 Apr 2026 02:00 $248.40 $262.60 +5.61% BULL 27 exit_fp
25 Apr 2026 18:00 27 Apr 2026 23:00 $245.90 $250.96 +1.92% NEUTRAL 54 trail
24 Apr 2026 09:00 24 Apr 2026 16:00 $245.30 $248.30 +1.12% BULL 8 signal
23 Apr 2026 07:00 24 Apr 2026 08:00 $242.90 $246.87 +1.49% NEUTRAL 26 trail
21 Apr 2026 15:00 22 Apr 2026 21:00 $243.60 $249.00 +2.11% BULL 31 signal
19 Apr 2026 19:00 20 Apr 2026 16:00 $241.20 $248.30 +2.84% BULL 22 signal
19 Apr 2026 03:00 19 Apr 2026 07:00 $242.50 $245.00 +0.93% BEAR 5 signal
17 Apr 2026 17:00 17 Apr 2026 20:00 $262.00 $260.70 -0.60% BEAR 4 signal
17 Apr 2026 01:00 17 Apr 2026 08:00 $254.60 $251.72 -1.27% BEAR 8 stop
14 Apr 2026 16:00 15 Apr 2026 07:00 $246.60 $243.81 -1.27% CRASH 16 stop
14 Apr 2026 06:00 14 Apr 2026 15:00 $254.40 $251.52 -1.27% CRASH 10 stop
13 Apr 2026 17:00 13 Apr 2026 19:00 $256.00 $254.80 -0.57% BEAR 3 signal
12 Apr 2026 11:00 12 Apr 2026 14:00 $264.60 $261.61 -1.27% CRASH 4 stop
10 Apr 2026 23:00 12 Apr 2026 10:00 $258.30 $264.39 +2.22% BEAR 36 trail
10 Apr 2026 13:00 10 Apr 2026 22:00 $263.60 $260.62 -1.27% BEAR 10 stop
10 Apr 2026 04:00 10 Apr 2026 12:00 $276.00 $272.88 -1.27% CRASH 9 stop
10 Apr 2026 00:00 10 Apr 2026 03:00 $291.00 $287.71 -1.27% CRASH 4 stop
09 Apr 2026 17:00 09 Apr 2026 23:00 $335.50 $331.71 -1.27% BEAR 7 stop
09 Apr 2026 06:00 09 Apr 2026 14:00 $321.80 $335.60 +4.18% BUBBLE 9 signal
08 Apr 2026 23:00 09 Apr 2026 05:00 $325.10 $321.42 -1.27% BEAR 7 stop
08 Apr 2026 21:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $327.30 $323.60 -1.27% NEUTRAL 2 stop
07 Apr 2026 08:00 07 Apr 2026 17:00 $313.00 $311.20 -0.67% BULL 10 signal
06 Apr 2026 22:00 07 Apr 2026 07:00 $315.50 $311.93 -1.27% NEUTRAL 10 stop
04 Apr 2026 17:00 06 Apr 2026 21:00 $305.60 $316.08 +3.28% BUBBLE 53 trail
04 Apr 2026 12:00 04 Apr 2026 15:00 $307.80 $304.32 -1.27% BULL 4 stop
04 Apr 2026 06:00 04 Apr 2026 08:00 $308.40 $308.80 +0.03% BUBBLE 3 signal
02 Apr 2026 11:00 04 Apr 2026 00:00 $295.10 $312.60 +5.82% BUBBLE 38 signal
31 Mar 2026 12:00 01 Apr 2026 23:00 $302.40 $313.62 +3.57% BULL 36 trail
30 Mar 2026 18:00 31 Mar 2026 09:00 $308.80 $305.31 -1.27% BULL 16 stop

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These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TAO signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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40.9% Win Rate Sharpe 4.56 213 Trades -10.0% Max Drawdown