UNIUNIUniswap$3.0100-2.68%
24h High$3.11
24h Low$2.96
Volume$9.8M
Updated14:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / UNI
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

UNI Uniswap (UNI) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for UNI - Uniswap. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 747 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $192,838. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $3.0100 (-2.68%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Uniswap (UNI) is the governance token of the Uniswap protocol, the pioneering automated market maker and largest decentralized exchange by volume. UNI price tracks DEX trading volumes, DeFi sentiment, and governance proposals around fee switching. As a DeFi blue-chip, UNI provides liquid, consistent trading opportunities with strong correlation to Ethereum ecosystem health.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View UNI Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.53
Sortino Ratio
3.93
Profit Factor
2.02
Calmar Ratio
29.60
Win Rate
43.8%
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Avg Drawdown
-10.64%
Alpha vs B&H
+7,169.6pp
Total Trades
747
Exposure
47.0%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
UNI

UNI Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
+0.5%
3t
+12.0%
29t
+36.4%
36t
+8.7%
26t
+14.4%
34t
+29.6%
31t
+6.2%
20t
+36.4%
28t
+85.8%
56t
 +565.2%
2025 +25.6%
35t
 		+31.6%
36t
 		+10.3%
36t
 		+25.4%
34t
 		+35.3%
41t
 		+26.4%
24t
 		+38.7%
34t
 		+23.1%
21t
 		-4.9%
10t
 		+22.3%
34t
 		+44.6%
30t
 		+1.8%
19t
 		+1,043.6%
2026 +2.7%
25t
 		+53.1%
37t
 		+5.2%
21t
 		+9.2%
23t
-0.5%
24t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +79.9%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,828.4% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 747 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +1.94% on 50 trades, WR 74%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.11% on 257 trades, WR 27%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for UNI over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 50 74.0% +1.94% 6.81 6.9
BULL 76 55.3% +1.80% 4.28 11.7
BEAR 209 44.0% +0.79% 2.17 13.5

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+6.1%
Win Rate
38.0%
19W / 31L
Max Drawdown
-5.6%
€10,000 Invested
€10,607
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 10:00 19 May 2026 17:00 $3.493 $3.482 -0.47% NEUTRAL 8 signal
18 May 2026 23:00 19 May 2026 09:00 $3.545 $3.506 -1.31% BEAR 11 stop
18 May 2026 11:00 18 May 2026 22:00 $3.393 $3.534 +3.99% NEUTRAL 12 exit_fp
18 May 2026 05:00 18 May 2026 10:00 $3.445 $3.407 -1.31% CRASH 6 stop
17 May 2026 01:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $3.482 $3.460 -0.79% NEUTRAL 23 signal
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 23:00 $3.575 $3.536 -1.31% NEUTRAL 34 stop
15 May 2026 07:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $3.695 $3.655 -1.31% BEAR 7 stop
15 May 2026 02:00 15 May 2026 05:00 $3.701 $3.661 -1.31% NEUTRAL 4 stop
14 May 2026 16:00 15 May 2026 00:00 $3.794 $3.753 -1.31% NEUTRAL 9 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 15:00 $3.613 $3.794 +4.84% BULL 24 exit_fp
13 May 2026 14:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $3.673 $3.633 -1.31% BEAR 2 stop
12 May 2026 16:00 13 May 2026 13:00 $3.718 $3.677 -1.31% NEUTRAL 22 stop
12 May 2026 11:00 12 May 2026 15:00 $3.767 $3.726 -1.31% BEAR 5 stop
12 May 2026 02:00 12 May 2026 10:00 $3.829 $3.788 -1.33% NEUTRAL 9 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 11 May 2026 21:00 $3.908 $3.900 -0.39% BULL 25 signal
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 18:00 $3.646 $3.709 +1.53% NEUTRAL 9 signal
07 May 2026 16:00 08 May 2026 01:00 $3.414 $3.410 -0.31% NEUTRAL 10 signal
07 May 2026 04:00 07 May 2026 10:00 $3.409 $3.473 +1.68% BULL 7 signal
06 May 2026 15:00 06 May 2026 17:00 $3.439 $3.458 +0.36% NEUTRAL 3 signal
04 May 2026 11:00 05 May 2026 10:00 $3.290 $3.359 +1.90% NEUTRAL 24 signal
03 May 2026 01:00 03 May 2026 07:00 $3.235 $3.234 -0.22% BEAR 7 signal
02 May 2026 14:00 02 May 2026 19:00 $3.230 $3.252 +0.49% NEUTRAL 6 signal
01 May 2026 04:00 02 May 2026 06:00 $3.229 $3.211 -0.75% BEAR 27 signal
27 Apr 2026 16:00 01 May 2026 03:00 $3.196 $3.240 +1.12% BEAR 84 trail
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 14:00 $3.251 $3.238 -0.59% BEAR 9 signal
23 Apr 2026 03:00 26 Apr 2026 18:00 $3.264 $3.298 +0.88% NEUTRAL 88 signal
22 Apr 2026 20:00 23 Apr 2026 02:00 $3.374 $3.337 -1.31% CRASH 7 stop
22 Apr 2026 05:00 22 Apr 2026 13:00 $3.345 $3.423 +2.17% BEAR 9 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 12:00 22 Apr 2026 00:00 $3.320 $3.284 -1.31% BEAR 61 stop
18 Apr 2026 12:00 19 Apr 2026 11:00 $3.372 $3.336 -1.33% BEAR 24 stop
18 Apr 2026 00:00 18 Apr 2026 11:00 $3.445 $3.408 -1.33% CRASH 12 stop
17 Apr 2026 03:00 17 Apr 2026 07:00 $3.367 $3.404 +0.94% BEAR 5 signal
15 Apr 2026 12:00 16 Apr 2026 08:00 $3.186 $3.269 +2.44% BEAR 21 signal
14 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 02:00 $3.117 $3.142 +0.64% CRASH 8 signal
14 Apr 2026 09:00 14 Apr 2026 18:00 $3.195 $3.161 -1.33% CRASH 10 stop
14 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 04:00 $3.224 $3.190 -1.33% CRASH 5 stop
12 Apr 2026 22:00 13 Apr 2026 23:00 $3.029 $3.224 +6.24% BEAR 26 exit_fp
08 Apr 2026 23:00 12 Apr 2026 21:00 $3.132 $3.098 -1.33% BEAR 95 stop
08 Apr 2026 15:00 08 Apr 2026 22:00 $3.175 $3.141 -1.33% CRASH 8 stop
06 Apr 2026 23:00 08 Apr 2026 08:00 $3.090 $3.256 +5.17% CRASH 34 signal
05 Apr 2026 13:00 06 Apr 2026 22:00 $3.069 $3.115 +1.29% BEAR 34 trail
04 Apr 2026 00:00 05 Apr 2026 12:00 $3.174 $3.140 -1.33% CRASH 37 stop
02 Apr 2026 14:00 03 Apr 2026 22:00 $3.123 $3.162 +0.97% BEAR 33 trail
02 Apr 2026 13:00 02 Apr 2026 13:00 $3.295 $3.260 -1.33% CRASH 1 stop
02 Apr 2026 03:00 02 Apr 2026 11:00 $3.453 $3.415 -1.31% CRASH 9 stop
01 Apr 2026 23:00 02 Apr 2026 01:00 $3.576 $3.538 -1.33% CRASH 3 stop
31 Mar 2026 11:00 01 Apr 2026 06:00 $3.471 $3.658 +5.19% BEAR 20 signal
29 Mar 2026 23:00 31 Mar 2026 01:00 $3.357 $3.558 +5.82% BEAR 27 signal
27 Mar 2026 11:00 29 Mar 2026 22:00 $3.390 $3.353 -1.31% BEAR 60 stop
27 Mar 2026 05:00 27 Mar 2026 10:00 $3.532 $3.494 -1.31% CRASH 6 stop

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43.8% Win Rate Sharpe 3.53 747 Trades -10.6% Max Drawdown