XDCXDCXDC Network$0.025849-0.37%
24h High$0.03
24h Low$0.03
Volume$0
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / XDC
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

XDC XDC Network (XDC) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for XDC - XDC Network. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Mar 2025 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 380 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $9,203. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Mar 2025 – May 2026 • $0.025849 (-0.37%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

XDC Network (XDC) is a hybrid blockchain by XinFin targeting enterprise use cases such as trade finance, tokenized real-world assets, and cross-border settlement. Operating since 2017, it provides multi-cycle history with steady, lower-volatility price action compared to retail-driven altcoins. XDC tends to respond to enterprise partnership announcements and ISO 20022 messaging-standard developments.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View XDC Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
-0.32
Sortino Ratio
-0.25
Profit Factor
1.05
Calmar Ratio
-0.40
Win Rate
35.7%
Max Drawdown
-25.3%
Avg Drawdown
-19.24%
Alpha vs B&H
-4,711,762.0pp
Total Trades
127
Exposure
46.5%
Beats B&H
2/3
Sharpe Trend
+0.81
XDC

XDC Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025
—
—
 -0.4%
1t
 		+4.0%
7t
 		-7.8%
8t
 		+3.6%
4t
 		+4.6%
23t
 		-7.3%
35t
 		-5.9%
31t
 		-4.8%
39t
 		+4.8%
38t
 		-3.7%
29t
 		-13.3%
2026 -9.3%
33t
 		+0.4%
38t
 		-0.5%
36t
 		+16.7%
36t
+13.6%
22t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +20.2%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↓ Negative return: -8.0% — this period underperformed.
  • ↓ Low win rate: 35.7% — profits depend on a few large winners.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -25.3% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 127 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.23% on 195 trades, WR 30%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for XDC over the latest walk-forward cycle (2025-12-28 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 10 22.2% +0.01% 1.26 5.9
BULL 39 54.2% +0.75% 2.44 16.3
BEAR 97 37.8% +0.02% 1.18 12.9

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Mar '25 – Aug '25 -0.43 -3% -8.5% 28.8% 52 No
2 Aug '25 – Dec '25 -0.91 -12% -23.9% 43.2% 162 Yes
3 Dec '25 – May '26 0.38 8% -25.3% 34.9% 166 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+34.5%
Win Rate
44.0%
22W / 28L
Max Drawdown
-4.4%
€10,000 Invested
€13,450
1.3x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 20:00 20 May 2026 03:00 $0.02760 $0.02940 +6.36% BEAR 6 exit_fp
19 May 2026 08:00 19 May 2026 12:00 $0.02750 $0.02790 +0.82% BEAR 5 exit_fp
18 May 2026 13:00 18 May 2026 23:00 $0.02730 $0.02700 -1.46% BEAR 11 stop
18 May 2026 07:00 18 May 2026 12:00 $0.02680 $0.02730 +1.27% BEAR 6 exit_fp
17 May 2026 14:00 18 May 2026 05:00 $0.02720 $0.02680 -1.67% CRASH 16 signal
16 May 2026 10:00 17 May 2026 02:00 $0.02830 $0.02800 -1.46% CRASH 17 stop
16 May 2026 06:00 16 May 2026 08:00 $0.02890 $0.02900 -0.30% CRASH 3 signal
15 May 2026 21:00 16 May 2026 04:00 $0.02850 $0.02930 +2.18% CRASH 8 exit_fp
15 May 2026 14:00 15 May 2026 17:00 $0.02940 $0.02950 -0.17% CRASH 4 signal
14 May 2026 15:00 15 May 2026 00:00 $0.02970 $0.02950 -1.46% BEAR 10 stop
13 May 2026 14:00 14 May 2026 02:00 $0.02710 $0.02690 -1.46% CRASH 13 stop
12 May 2026 17:00 13 May 2026 03:00 $0.02690 $0.02760 +2.32% CRASH 11 signal
11 May 2026 15:00 12 May 2026 04:00 $0.02740 $0.02820 +2.50% BEAR 13 exit_fp
11 May 2026 12:00 11 May 2026 12:00 $0.02810 $0.02780 -1.46% BEAR 1 stop
11 May 2026 01:00 11 May 2026 09:00 $0.02610 $0.02830 +7.89% BEAR 9 exit_fp
09 May 2026 14:00 10 May 2026 00:00 $0.02570 $0.02590 +0.05% CRASH 11 signal
06 May 2026 17:00 07 May 2026 04:00 $0.02510 $0.02520 -0.06% CRASH 12 signal
05 May 2026 12:00 06 May 2026 06:00 $0.02510 $0.02580 +2.35% BEAR 19 exit_fp
03 May 2026 12:00 05 May 2026 11:00 $0.02490 $0.02520 +0.67% BEAR 46 trail
02 May 2026 04:00 03 May 2026 11:00 $0.02910 $0.02890 -1.46% CRASH 32 stop
01 May 2026 21:00 02 May 2026 03:00 $0.02950 $0.02920 -1.46% BEAR 7 stop
30 Apr 2026 22:00 01 May 2026 11:00 $0.02980 $0.02970 -0.54% NEUTRAL 14 signal
29 Apr 2026 16:00 30 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.02940 $0.03010 +2.17% BEAR 21 exit_fp
28 Apr 2026 12:00 29 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.03020 $0.02990 -1.46% NEUTRAL 21 stop
25 Apr 2026 03:00 28 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.03010 $0.02980 -1.46% BEAR 74 stop
24 Apr 2026 22:00 25 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.02990 $0.02990 -0.54% CRASH 3 signal
24 Apr 2026 09:00 24 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.03010 $0.03080 +1.94% BEAR 8 signal
24 Apr 2026 04:00 24 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.02550 $0.03020 +17.87% NEUTRAL 5 take_profit
23 Apr 2026 09:00 23 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.02560 $0.02540 -1.21% CRASH 3 signal
22 Apr 2026 20:00 23 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.02570 $0.02600 +0.81% CRASH 8 signal
20 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.02540 $0.02570 +0.67% CRASH 5 signal
20 Apr 2026 18:00 20 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.02570 $0.02570 -0.54% CRASH 3 signal
20 Apr 2026 10:00 20 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.02610 $0.02600 -0.65% CRASH 5 signal
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.02480 $0.02610 +4.52% BEAR 9 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 18:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.02520 $0.02500 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
18 Apr 2026 11:00 19 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.02550 $0.02530 -1.46% BEAR 30 stop
17 Apr 2026 19:00 18 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.02660 $0.02730 +2.28% BEAR 10 exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 12:00 17 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.02710 $0.02680 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
16 Apr 2026 12:00 17 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.02680 $0.02730 +1.53% BEAR 18 exit_fp
15 Apr 2026 03:00 15 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.02570 $0.02580 +0.17% CRASH 7 signal
14 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.02620 $0.02600 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
14 Apr 2026 01:00 14 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.02580 $0.02630 +1.28% CRASH 6 signal
13 Apr 2026 23:00 14 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.02620 $0.02600 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
13 Apr 2026 19:00 13 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.02610 $0.02600 -0.71% CRASH 3 signal
13 Apr 2026 07:00 13 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.02640 $0.02690 +1.39% CRASH 5 exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 23:00 13 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.02560 $0.02640 +2.67% BEAR 8 exit_fp
11 Apr 2026 15:00 12 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.02590 $0.02590 -0.57% CRASH 26 signal
11 Apr 2026 05:00 11 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.02620 $0.02600 -1.46% CRASH 10 stop
09 Apr 2026 18:00 10 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.02650 $0.02630 -1.32% CRASH 13 signal
08 Apr 2026 15:00 09 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.02700 $0.02670 -1.46% CRASH 15 stop

Start Trading XDC Network Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time XDC signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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35.7% Win Rate Sharpe -0.32 127 Trades -25.3% Max Drawdown