Backtests / MANA
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

MANA MANA (MANA) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for MANA. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • Jun 2021 – May 2026 • $0.090600 (+0.89%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Decentraland (MANA) is the native token of one of the earliest and most-recognized blockchain-based metaverse platforms. MANA price reacts strongly to gaming + NFT cycles and metaverse-narrative phases. Multi-year deep history.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View MANA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
10.99
Sortino Ratio
13.66
Profit Factor
26.06
Calmar Ratio
42,838.33
Win Rate
85.8%
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Avg Drawdown
-11.28%
Alpha vs B&H
+4,517,650,820,120,505.0pp
Total Trades
151
Exposure
42.6%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
+0.67
MANA

MANA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2021
—
—
—
—
—
+42.4%
15t
+152.0%
26t
+122.9%
18t
+56.4%
21t
+288.1%
20t
+231.2%
28t
+137.9%
25t
 +38,154.0%
2022
+174.9%
20t
+183.7%
20t
+56.7%
17t
+19.9%
17t
+107.4%
23t
+83.4%
14t
+104.8%
14t
+45.2%
14t
+32.7%
13t
+26.6%
17t
+67.5%
13t
+19.9%
13t
 +55,802.2%
2023
+209.4%
23t
+48.3%
11t
+88.1%
14t
+40.8%
10t
+25.2%
14t
+55.3%
15t
+46.7%
12t
+3.1%
19t
+24.4%
15t
+39.7%
18t
+88.0%
11t
+70.6%
16t
 +19,799.8%
2024
+79.3%
15t
+69.0%
12t
+115.7%
19t
+53.9%
15t
+53.7%
11t
+31.3%
11t
+70.3%
13t
+24.3%
14t
+49.2%
14t
+82.5%
11t
+393.6%
15t
+237.7%
23t
 +194,850.8%
2025
+93.3%
15t
+126.9%
16t
+80.1%
12t
+83.6%
14t
+96.7%
14t
+55.6%
10t
+114.8%
14t
+89.3%
10t
+57.1%
14t
+40.8%
14t
+51.7%
13t
+44.2%
10t
 +87,215.0%
2026
+143.2%
13t
+83.5%
13t
+54.0%
12t
+48.4%
12t
—
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—
—
—
—
—
—
 +919.9%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +45,176.51B× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 85.8% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -18.4% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 151 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +6.10% on 89 trades, WR 93%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 203 93.1% +4.69% 30.19 17.7
BULL 89 91.5% +5.30% 435.92 35.6
SIDEWAYS 514 83.1% +3.42% 79.20 20.7
BEAR 99 85.2% +3.76% 9.64 19.8

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Jun '21 – Apr '22 11.37 2,851x -11.8% 82.2% 214 Yes
2 Apr '22 – Jan '23 8.77 77.5x -10.5% 80.1% 156 Yes
3 Jan '23 – Nov '23 9.61 21.9x -6.8% 79.1% 139 Yes
4 Nov '23 – Sep '24 10.47 58.7x -13.6% 89.1% 138 Yes
5 Sep '24 – Jul '25 13.71 1,489x -6.6% 93.5% 139 Yes
6 Jul '25 – May '26 12.04 97.9x -18.4% 90.8% 119 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).

Compound Return
+723.3%
Win Rate
92.0%
46W / 4L
Max Drawdown
-3.5%
€10,000 Invested
€82,330
8.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
23 Apr 2026 06:00 25 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.09060 $0.09760 +7.29% SIDEWAYS 46 short_signal
22 Apr 2026 02:00 22 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.09330 $0.09340 -0.30% SIDEWAYS 16 short_signal
20 Apr 2026 01:00 21 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08980 $0.09140 +1.22% SIDEWAYS 36 trail
17 Apr 2026 04:00 18 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.09310 $0.09470 +1.18% SIDEWAYS 22 trail
15 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08660 $0.09400 +8.10% SIDEWAYS 36 take_profit
13 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.08600 $0.08810 +1.93% BEAR 29 trail
11 Apr 2026 13:00 11 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.08850 $0.09050 +1.84% BEAR 6 short_signal
09 Apr 2026 03:00 09 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.09040 $0.09170 +1.02% BEAR 6 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 01:00 08 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.08410 $0.08910 +5.37% BEAR 32 trail
05 Apr 2026 08:00 06 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.08490 $0.08840 +3.70% BEAR 27 exit_fp
03 Apr 2026 05:00 04 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.08750 $0.08890 +1.18% BEAR 28 short_signal
31 Mar 2026 15:00 01 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08210 $0.08910 +8.08% BEAR 22 exit_fp
29 Mar 2026 14:00 30 Mar 2026 17:00 $0.08040 $0.08270 +2.33% BEAR 28 trail
28 Mar 2026 01:00 28 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.08060 $0.08280 +2.31% BEAR 20 short_signal
24 Mar 2026 11:00 25 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.08790 $0.08900 +0.84% BEAR 26 short_signal
22 Mar 2026 18:00 23 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.08390 $0.08730 +3.53% BEAR 29 trail
17 Mar 2026 14:00 17 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.09600 $0.09710 +0.73% BEAR 9 short_signal
14 Mar 2026 18:00 16 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.09020 $0.09450 +4.23% BEAR 42 trail
12 Mar 2026 14:00 13 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.08990 $0.09410 +4.24% BEAR 23 exit_fp
11 Mar 2026 03:00 12 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.09030 $0.09200 +1.32% BEAR 23 trail
09 Mar 2026 01:00 10 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.08880 $0.09420 +5.65% BEAR 38 exit_fp
03 Mar 2026 10:00 04 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.09470 $0.10100 +6.22% BEAR 34 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 21:00 02 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.09490 $0.10120 +6.20% BEAR 20 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 07:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.09220 $0.09870 +6.61% BEAR 19 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 17:00 27 Feb 2026 04:00 $0.09420 $0.10030 +6.04% BEAR 12 exit_fp
24 Feb 2026 21:00 25 Feb 2026 20:00 $0.08960 $0.10270 +14.15% BEAR 24 exit_fp
23 Feb 2026 02:00 23 Feb 2026 09:00 $0.09030 $0.09390 +3.56% BEAR 8 exit_fp
19 Feb 2026 16:00 21 Feb 2026 06:00 $0.09480 $0.09850 +3.37% BEAR 39 trail
18 Feb 2026 22:00 19 Feb 2026 03:00 $0.09820 $0.09820 -0.41% BEAR 6 short_signal
13 Feb 2026 01:00 14 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.09840 $0.10740 +8.70% BEAR 40 short_signal
11 Feb 2026 07:00 12 Feb 2026 10:00 $0.09530 $0.10160 +6.17% BEAR 28 exit_fp
09 Feb 2026 11:00 10 Feb 2026 02:00 $0.09840 $0.10180 +3.03% BEAR 16 short_signal
07 Feb 2026 07:00 07 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.09970 $0.10740 +7.28% BEAR 12 exit_fp
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.09420 $0.10330 +9.21% BEAR 16 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 15:00 03 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.11400 $0.11060 -3.47% BEAR 3 stop
02 Feb 2026 01:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.11360 $0.11600 +1.70% BEAR 15 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 17:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.11060 $0.11560 +3.98% BEAR 8 regime_exit
25 Jan 2026 20:00 26 Jan 2026 06:00 $0.14050 $0.14760 +4.62% SIDEWAYS 11 exit_fp
22 Jan 2026 19:00 23 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.16230 $0.17720 +8.73% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
21 Jan 2026 22:00 22 Jan 2026 05:00 $0.15870 $0.17510 +9.88% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
21 Jan 2026 00:00 21 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.15200 $0.16060 +5.23% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 21:00 19 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.15880 $0.15920 -0.16% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 01:00 19 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.14490 $0.15730 +8.11% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 16:00 17 Jan 2026 14:00 $0.14050 $0.16870 +19.58% SIDEWAYS 23 exit_fp
12 Jan 2026 22:00 14 Jan 2026 00:00 $0.13510 $0.15520 +14.41% SIDEWAYS 27 exit_fp
08 Jan 2026 13:00 10 Jan 2026 05:00 $0.13660 $0.14240 +3.74% SIDEWAYS 41 trail
05 Jan 2026 15:00 06 Jan 2026 11:00 $0.14090 $0.14640 +3.48% SIDEWAYS 21 exit_fp
03 Jan 2026 17:00 05 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.13500 $0.14050 +3.65% SIDEWAYS 34 short_signal
02 Jan 2026 22:00 03 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.13310 $0.13940 +4.30% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
01 Jan 2026 01:00 02 Jan 2026 09:00 $0.12110 $0.13120 +7.90% SIDEWAYS 33 take_profit

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85.8% Win Rate Sharpe 10.99 151 Trades -18.4% Max Drawdown