Backtests / SNX
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

SNX SNX (SNX) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for SNX. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2021 – May 2026 • $0.329000 (+6.13%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Synthetix (SNX) is a long-running DeFi protocol enabling synthetic exposure to crypto, FX and commodities. Now powering perp DEXes on Optimism and Base. Strong cyclical history with DeFi-correlated swings; well-suited for momentum-based strategies.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View SNX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
12.27
Sortino Ratio
15.74
Profit Factor
51.95
Calmar Ratio
83,648.39
Win Rate
90.9%
Max Drawdown
-15.0%
Avg Drawdown
-9.21%
Alpha vs B&H
+83,173,198,463,675,023,360.0pp
Total Trades
147
Exposure
36.9%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
-3.46
SNX

SNX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2021
—
—
—
—
+64.8%
7t
+139.3%
15t
+138.7%
11t
+206.3%
20t
+178.0%
19t
+85.4%
16t
+75.3%
18t
+134.9%
15t
 +61,090.1%
2022
+109.6%
14t
+115.5%
15t
+152.5%
13t
+205.3%
14t
+228.9%
22t
+227.7%
17t
+419.2%
17t
+232.9%
15t
+66.9%
11t
+47.2%
10t
+121.2%
13t
+35.2%
11t
 +4,765,909.8%
2023
+150.4%
15t
+158.2%
14t
+137.5%
19t
+59.7%
17t
+55.3%
11t
+109.8%
16t
+55.7%
16t
+32.4%
10t
+46.9%
15t
+34.8%
14t
+207.8%
14t
+145.1%
17t
 +245,794.5%
2024
+62.1%
15t
+81.1%
12t
+135.7%
16t
+101.1%
15t
+85.7%
10t
+47.1%
7t
+61.8%
11t
+76.8%
17t
+80.4%
12t
+61.3%
13t
+251.7%
17t
+154.8%
23t
 +283,329.6%
2025
+156.7%
17t
+151.2%
18t
+103.1%
13t
+89.3%
14t
+100.3%
13t
+71.1%
13t
+88.4%
14t
+129.8%
14t
+120.1%
20t
+513.0%
20t
+43.5%
17t
+71.3%
13t
 +1,218,871.0%
2026
+77.7%
12t
+86.6%
18t
+49.3%
11t
+49.6%
15t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +640.5%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +831,731,984.64B× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 90.9% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -15.0% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 147 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +6.66% on 119 trades, WR 90%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 195 94.3% +4.02% 60.87 20.3
BULL 119 93.7% +9.28% 72.09 25.0
SIDEWAYS 467 91.0% +5.03% 56.43 19.0
BEAR 100 91.0% +6.00% 14.29 17.6

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 May '21 – Mar '22 13.93 2,917x -8.4% 89.2% 157 Yes
2 Mar '22 – Jan '23 12.08 5,326x -15.0% 93.0% 142 Yes
3 Jan '23 – Nov '23 10.78 208.4x -7.8% 89.1% 147 Yes
4 Nov '23 – Sep '24 12.36 374.5x -7.8% 91.0% 133 Yes
5 Sep '24 – Jul '25 14.00 1,191x -7.8% 95.4% 152 Yes
6 Jul '25 – May '26 10.47 570.1x -8.5% 88.0% 150 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).

Compound Return
+447.9%
Win Rate
88.0%
44W / 6L
Max Drawdown
-3.4%
€10,000 Invested
€54,790
5.5x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
28 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.30900 $0.31900 +2.81% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 08:00 27 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.31300 $0.32500 +3.41% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
26 Apr 2026 01:00 26 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.29800 $0.31600 +5.61% SIDEWAYS 17 short_signal
23 Apr 2026 17:00 24 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.29600 $0.30400 +2.28% SIDEWAYS 25 short_signal
21 Apr 2026 14:00 23 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.29100 $0.29590 +1.16% SIDEWAYS 39 trail
19 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.28600 $0.29280 +1.84% SIDEWAYS 27 trail
14 Apr 2026 19:00 16 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.28300 $0.30800 +8.39% SIDEWAYS 52 take_profit
13 Apr 2026 11:00 14 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.28300 $0.29150 +2.47% BEAR 19 trail
12 Apr 2026 17:00 12 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.28500 $0.28400 -0.76% BEAR 3 signal
11 Apr 2026 13:00 11 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.28700 $0.29500 +2.37% BEAR 6 short_signal
09 Apr 2026 01:00 09 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.28900 $0.29100 +0.28% BEAR 9 short_signal
07 Apr 2026 01:00 07 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.29000 $0.30100 +3.37% BEAR 22 exit_fp
05 Apr 2026 01:00 06 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.27800 $0.28900 +3.53% BEAR 33 short_signal
02 Apr 2026 02:00 03 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.27400 $0.27970 +1.54% BEAR 40 trail
29 Mar 2026 09:00 01 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.27800 $0.28700 +2.82% BEAR 65 signal
28 Mar 2026 02:00 28 Mar 2026 10:00 $0.27500 $0.27900 +1.04% BEAR 9 short_signal
23 Mar 2026 00:00 24 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.28800 $0.29830 +3.14% BEAR 26 trail
18 Mar 2026 21:00 19 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.31400 $0.33000 +4.77% SIDEWAYS 26 exit_fp
16 Mar 2026 04:00 16 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.32600 $0.33200 +1.53% BEAR 18 exit_fp
14 Mar 2026 20:00 15 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.30500 $0.32150 +4.95% BEAR 20 trail
11 Mar 2026 03:00 12 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.30800 $0.31430 +1.63% BEAR 24 trail
08 Mar 2026 19:00 09 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.30500 $0.31460 +2.71% BEAR 15 trail
08 Mar 2026 03:00 08 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.30300 $0.30600 +0.68% BEAR 4 signal
03 Mar 2026 09:00 04 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.30200 $0.34200 +12.89% BEAR 30 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 18:00 02 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.31400 $0.32100 +1.91% BEAR 22 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 15:00 01 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.30900 $0.32900 +6.14% BEAR 12 exit_fp
27 Feb 2026 22:00 28 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.32800 $0.32900 -0.01% BEAR 4 signal
25 Feb 2026 06:00 25 Feb 2026 13:00 $0.36500 $0.37800 +3.24% BEAR 8 exit_fp
24 Feb 2026 07:00 24 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.35100 $0.36900 +4.80% BEAR 11 exit_fp
22 Feb 2026 13:00 22 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.41400 $0.43000 +3.44% BEAR 11 exit_fp
21 Feb 2026 01:00 21 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.37900 $0.42300 +11.15% BEAR 18 exit_fp
20 Feb 2026 04:00 20 Feb 2026 07:00 $0.36100 $0.39300 +8.42% BEAR 4 exit_fp
18 Feb 2026 20:00 19 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.30000 $0.33500 +11.21% BEAR 20 exit_fp
17 Feb 2026 12:00 18 Feb 2026 07:00 $0.29100 $0.32200 +10.20% BEAR 20 exit_fp
15 Feb 2026 16:00 16 Feb 2026 12:00 $0.29200 $0.30400 +3.68% BEAR 21 exit_fp
13 Feb 2026 18:00 14 Feb 2026 13:00 $0.29700 $0.30200 +1.27% BEAR 20 short_signal
11 Feb 2026 07:00 13 Feb 2026 05:00 $0.27100 $0.28240 +3.65% BEAR 47 trail
09 Feb 2026 19:00 09 Feb 2026 21:00 $0.29700 $0.29400 -1.41% BEAR 3 signal
09 Feb 2026 02:00 09 Feb 2026 06:00 $0.29100 $0.29200 -0.07% BEAR 5 short_signal
06 Feb 2026 00:00 07 Feb 2026 07:00 $0.27900 $0.29680 +5.84% BEAR 32 trail
04 Feb 2026 14:00 04 Feb 2026 21:00 $0.32600 $0.32700 -0.10% BEAR 8 short_signal
03 Feb 2026 15:00 03 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.35300 $0.33100 -6.70% BEAR 4 stop
02 Feb 2026 01:00 02 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.34100 $0.35500 +3.68% BEAR 16 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 17:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.34500 $0.35700 +2.94% BEAR 8 regime_exit
30 Jan 2026 01:00 30 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.38500 $0.40500 +4.76% SIDEWAYS 19 exit_fp
25 Jan 2026 20:00 27 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.39200 $0.41300 +5.03% SIDEWAYS 37 short_signal
20 Jan 2026 19:00 21 Jan 2026 11:00 $0.41400 $0.42260 +1.65% SIDEWAYS 17 trail
19 Jan 2026 01:00 19 Jan 2026 18:00 $0.43400 $0.44300 +1.76% SIDEWAYS 18 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 01:00 17 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.46300 $0.50200 +8.09% SIDEWAYS 32 exit_fp
13 Jan 2026 06:00 14 Jan 2026 03:00 $0.45400 $0.51000 +11.99% SIDEWAYS 22 take_profit

Start Trading SNX Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time SNX signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → SNX Signals → View Plans →
90.9% Win Rate Sharpe 12.27 147 Trades -15.0% Max Drawdown