Backtests / STX
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

STX STX (STX) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for STX. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • Oct 2020 – May 2026 • $0.227200 (+1.97%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Stacks (STX) brings smart contracts and DeFi to Bitcoin via the proof-of-transfer mechanism. Major narrative leader for "Bitcoin DeFi" with Nakamoto-upgrade catalysts. Long history (since 2019) provides multi-cycle training data.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View STX Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
11.19
Sortino Ratio
11.58
Profit Factor
54.06
Calmar Ratio
51,142.48
Win Rate
87.7%
Max Drawdown
-19.5%
Avg Drawdown
-14.74%
Alpha vs B&H
+9,122,624,839,932,968,960,000.0pp
Total Trades
184
Exposure
38.5%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
+1.95
STX

STX Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2020
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
+50.2%
11t
+284.5%
25t
+205.2%
23t
 +1,663.1%
2021
+169.8%
27t
+226.6%
21t
+230.9%
24t
+103.6%
27t
+155.7%
23t
+105.3%
19t
+262.4%
26t
+78.1%
17t
+58.5%
18t
+146.7%
21t
+165.4%
19t
+225.0%
21t
 +6,787,072.4%
2022
+155.7%
19t
+105.2%
13t
+110.6%
16t
+48.0%
11t
+93.2%
18t
+229.8%
21t
+82.9%
12t
+26.8%
11t
+24.1%
15t
+17.5%
16t
+152.2%
19t
+58.0%
16t
 +140,422.8%
2023
+68.2%
16t
+689.8%
23t
+360.6%
21t
+91.2%
13t
+63.3%
14t
+112.1%
15t
+23.3%
13t
+32.6%
12t
+39.2%
13t
+83.1%
15t
+120.4%
12t
+376.8%
21t
 +1,774,585.1%
2024
+135.5%
16t
+167.8%
12t
+205.1%
21t
+59.8%
15t
+110.6%
9t
+73.1%
14t
+149.1%
17t
+107.7%
17t
+101.3%
16t
+107.0%
17t
+143.4%
19t
+154.6%
21t
 +1,497,482.7%
2025
+69.2%
16t
+48.4%
17t
+95.6%
16t
+150.8%
16t
+79.5%
14t
+66.9%
11t
+101.2%
12t
+63.1%
11t
+49.8%
12t
+108.1%
15t
+78.3%
14t
+41.7%
11t
 +95,254.0%
2026
+89.7%
14t
+81.1%
13t
+54.5%
9t
+48.5%
11t
+0.7%
1t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +693.7%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +91,226,248,399.33B× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 87.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -19.5% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 184 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +6.59% on 140 trades, WR 88%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 338 87.6% +4.85% 19.93 16.1
BULL 140 89.3% +6.53% 27.88 23.8
SIDEWAYS 513 87.3% +4.56% 47.05 19.3
BEAR 113 86.1% +4.09% 3.32 15.3

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Oct '20 – Sep '21 10.42 17,480x -19.5% 81.1% 254 Yes
2 Sep '21 – Aug '22 10.04 4,126x -13.5% 85.4% 185 Yes
3 Aug '22 – Jul '23 9.26 1,437x -17.7% 84.1% 182 Yes
4 Jul '23 – Jul '24 12.69 2,463x -15.1% 90.9% 164 Yes
5 Jul '24 – Jun '25 12.39 1,566x -18.3% 87.8% 188 Yes
6 Jun '25 – May '26 12.37 226.8x -4.4% 96.9% 131 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+576.9%
Win Rate
98.0%
49W / 1L
Max Drawdown
-0.1%
€10,000 Invested
€67,691
6.8x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
02 May 2026 09:00 02 May 2026 14:00 $0.22310 $0.22550 +0.66% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
26 Apr 2026 01:00 26 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.22560 $0.23160 +2.24% SIDEWAYS 19 signal
23 Apr 2026 09:00 24 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.22450 $0.22940 +1.76% SIDEWAYS 29 short_signal
21 Apr 2026 15:00 22 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.22320 $0.22830 +1.77% SIDEWAYS 30 trail
19 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.21930 $0.22360 +1.43% SIDEWAYS 28 trail
14 Apr 2026 21:00 16 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.21990 $0.24410 +10.55% SIDEWAYS 47 take_profit
13 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.21320 $0.22330 +4.19% BEAR 30 trail
10 Apr 2026 08:00 10 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.21370 $0.22380 +4.30% BEAR 14 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.21660 $0.22700 +4.37% BEAR 22 exit_fp
05 Apr 2026 08:00 06 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.20960 $0.22680 +7.76% BEAR 26 exit_fp
03 Apr 2026 03:00 03 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.21400 $0.21560 +0.34% BEAR 7 signal
31 Mar 2026 11:00 01 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.21800 $0.22360 +2.02% BEAR 16 trail
29 Mar 2026 23:00 30 Mar 2026 18:00 $0.21420 $0.22030 +2.33% BEAR 20 trail
24 Mar 2026 14:00 24 Mar 2026 23:00 $0.23910 $0.24280 +1.13% BEAR 10 short_signal
22 Mar 2026 22:00 24 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.23230 $0.24270 +3.93% BEAR 27 trail
14 Mar 2026 18:00 16 Mar 2026 23:00 $0.24780 $0.26950 +8.31% BEAR 54 exit_fp
12 Mar 2026 13:00 13 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.25210 $0.26560 +4.92% BEAR 24 exit_fp
09 Mar 2026 00:00 10 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.25250 $0.27040 +6.65% BEAR 39 exit_fp
03 Mar 2026 17:00 04 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.25960 $0.27430 +5.23% BEAR 23 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.24850 $0.26270 +5.28% BEAR 21 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 07:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.24690 $0.26520 +6.97% BEAR 19 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 15:00 27 Feb 2026 08:00 $0.26300 $0.27470 +4.02% BEAR 18 exit_fp
25 Feb 2026 12:00 25 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.25110 $0.27330 +8.40% BEAR 8 exit_fp
24 Feb 2026 13:00 24 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.23240 $0.23790 +1.84% BEAR 11 trail
23 Feb 2026 20:00 24 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.23460 $0.23770 +0.91% BEAR 5 short_signal
19 Feb 2026 10:00 20 Feb 2026 04:00 $0.24760 $0.25100 +0.85% BEAR 19 trail
13 Feb 2026 01:00 13 Feb 2026 20:00 $0.26200 $0.27290 +3.73% BEAR 20 signal
11 Feb 2026 06:00 12 Feb 2026 12:00 $0.24490 $0.26310 +6.86% BEAR 31 trail
07 Feb 2026 07:00 07 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.26270 $0.27410 +3.91% BEAR 12 signal
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.25820 $0.28070 +8.27% BEAR 16 exit_fp
04 Feb 2026 22:00 05 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.27910 $0.28170 +0.52% BEAR 4 signal
03 Feb 2026 06:00 03 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.29920 $0.32460 +8.05% BEAR 10 exit_fp
02 Feb 2026 01:00 02 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.26170 $0.28890 +9.94% BEAR 17 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 17:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.25160 $0.26320 +4.07% BEAR 8 regime_exit
29 Jan 2026 19:00 30 Jan 2026 18:00 $0.28020 $0.29210 +3.82% SIDEWAYS 24 exit_fp
25 Jan 2026 20:00 27 Jan 2026 05:00 $0.28130 $0.29940 +6.00% SIDEWAYS 34 signal
20 Jan 2026 19:00 22 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.30360 $0.32860 +7.79% SIDEWAYS 31 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 00:00 19 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.32950 $0.32990 -0.29% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
16 Jan 2026 04:00 16 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.36240 $0.37400 +2.78% SIDEWAYS 19 exit_fp
13 Jan 2026 05:00 13 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.38850 $0.39970 +2.46% SIDEWAYS 18 exit_fp
12 Jan 2026 15:00 12 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.39040 $0.39850 +1.66% SIDEWAYS 2 exit_fp
11 Jan 2026 21:00 12 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.38250 $0.39000 +1.54% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
09 Jan 2026 16:00 10 Jan 2026 12:00 $0.37970 $0.39420 +3.39% SIDEWAYS 21 exit_fp
08 Jan 2026 07:00 09 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.34540 $0.35700 +2.94% SIDEWAYS 20 exit_fp
05 Jan 2026 06:00 06 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.35320 $0.37780 +6.53% SIDEWAYS 20 signal
03 Jan 2026 11:00 04 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.29680 $0.34460 +15.63% SIDEWAYS 31 take_profit
02 Jan 2026 08:00 02 Jan 2026 21:00 $0.26380 $0.27580 +4.12% SIDEWAYS 14 short_signal
31 Dec 2025 19:00 01 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.23960 $0.26010 +8.11% SIDEWAYS 25 take_profit
26 Dec 2025 02:00 28 Dec 2025 00:00 $0.25490 $0.26490 +3.50% SIDEWAYS 47 signal
23 Dec 2025 15:00 25 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.24230 $0.25470 +4.69% SIDEWAYS 47 signal

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87.7% Win Rate Sharpe 11.19 184 Trades -19.5% Max Drawdown