Backtests / TIA
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

TIA TIA (TIA) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for TIA. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • Mar 2024 – May 2026 • $0.358000 (+1.76%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Celestia (TIA) introduced the modular blockchain narrative — separating data availability from execution and settlement. Used by leading rollups and sovereign chains. Listed late-2023 with growing history; price reactive to L2 + modular-thesis narrative cycles.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View TIA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
12.60
Sortino Ratio
10.86
Profit Factor
26.69
Calmar Ratio
159,065.69
Win Rate
88.5%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Avg Drawdown
-9.47%
Alpha vs B&H
+3,663,974,350.5pp
Total Trades
74
Exposure
37.8%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
+3.92
TIA

TIA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
+23.5%
8t
+86.3%
26t
+100.5%
26t
+44.4%
26t
+165.2%
23t
+135.3%
17t
+214.6%
19t
+103.4%
18t
+168.0%
25t
+137.6%
21t
 +169,360.3%
2025
+77.0%
21t
+178.3%
13t
+143.9%
13t
+75.0%
13t
+94.3%
16t
+55.4%
12t
+206.3%
16t
+103.3%
14t
+31.1%
11t
+59.0%
19t
+121.7%
19t
+85.5%
13t
 +338,772.8%
2026
+81.3%
15t
+101.9%
14t
+71.4%
11t
+97.5%
16t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +1,139.0%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +36.64M× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 88.5% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -15.8% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 74 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +5.10% on 176 trades, WR 93%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 168 86.8% +2.99% 18.15 11.2
BULL 58 61.9% +0.62% 19.62 17.4
SIDEWAYS 176 93.0% +5.16% 55.17 19.1
BEAR 43 96.9% +9.35% 9.97 21.0

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Mar '24 – Jul '24 9.90 14.3x -14.9% 77.4% 106 Yes
2 Jul '24 – Dec '24 13.90 48.3x -7.4% 86.0% 86 Yes
3 Dec '24 – Apr '25 13.58 24.4x -7.3% 87.5% 72 Yes
4 Apr '25 – Aug '25 13.52 19.7x -6.5% 94.9% 59 Yes
5 Aug '25 – Jan '26 10.90 896% -15.8% 94.0% 67 Yes
6 Jan '26 – May '26 13.82 826% -5.0% 90.9% 55 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).

Compound Return
+640.2%
Win Rate
90.0%
45W / 5L
Max Drawdown
-3.9%
€10,000 Invested
€74,017
7.4x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
29 Apr 2026 19:00 30 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.34530 $0.36220 +4.57% SIDEWAYS 13 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 16:00 28 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.34580 $0.36420 +4.89% SIDEWAYS 31 short_signal
26 Apr 2026 01:00 27 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.34780 $0.36190 +3.63% SIDEWAYS 26 short_signal
21 Apr 2026 20:00 22 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.37360 $0.38790 +3.40% SIDEWAYS 15 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.36960 $0.38800 +4.55% SIDEWAYS 11 exit_fp
18 Apr 2026 21:00 19 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.39310 $0.39410 -0.16% SIDEWAYS 14 short_signal
17 Apr 2026 11:00 17 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.39740 $0.43430 +8.84% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 17:00 16 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.39090 $0.40300 +2.67% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
15 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.31120 $0.34990 +11.98% SIDEWAYS 28 take_profit
12 Apr 2026 23:00 14 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.29140 $0.30870 +5.39% BEAR 31 trail
10 Apr 2026 16:00 11 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.30590 $0.30640 -0.25% BEAR 20 short_signal
09 Apr 2026 00:00 10 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.29550 $0.30230 +1.78% BEAR 26 trail
07 Apr 2026 01:00 08 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.28540 $0.30900 +7.70% BEAR 35 trail
05 Apr 2026 13:00 06 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.28320 $0.29840 +4.94% BEAR 22 exit_fp
02 Apr 2026 13:00 03 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.28410 $0.29460 +3.27% BEAR 26 short_signal
31 Mar 2026 11:00 01 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.29140 $0.30140 +3.01% BEAR 25 short_signal
29 Mar 2026 18:00 30 Mar 2026 17:00 $0.29080 $0.29950 +2.45% BEAR 24 trail
22 Mar 2026 15:00 24 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.31650 $0.32760 +2.98% BEAR 45 trail
15 Mar 2026 19:00 16 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.35350 $0.38580 +8.69% BEAR 28 exit_fp
14 Mar 2026 06:00 15 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.34360 $0.35180 +1.84% BEAR 25 trail
12 Mar 2026 11:00 13 Mar 2026 08:00 $0.33120 $0.34670 +4.14% BEAR 22 trail
11 Mar 2026 01:00 11 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.32790 $0.34070 +3.48% BEAR 22 exit_fp
09 Mar 2026 00:00 10 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.31490 $0.33290 +5.28% BEAR 36 short_signal
05 Mar 2026 16:00 06 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.33440 $0.34690 +3.31% BEAR 16 exit_fp
03 Mar 2026 05:00 04 Mar 2026 08:00 $0.32200 $0.34190 +5.75% BEAR 28 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 18:00 02 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.31820 $0.33990 +6.38% BEAR 23 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 09:00 01 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.30100 $0.33650 +11.34% BEAR 18 exit_fp
24 Feb 2026 09:00 25 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.29460 $0.36980 +25.01% BEAR 32 exit_fp
23 Feb 2026 05:00 23 Feb 2026 09:00 $0.29550 $0.30670 +3.37% BEAR 5 short_signal
19 Feb 2026 18:00 21 Feb 2026 10:00 $0.31810 $0.34570 +8.34% BEAR 41 exit_fp
19 Feb 2026 01:00 19 Feb 2026 05:00 $0.32910 $0.32610 -1.22% BEAR 5 short_signal
16 Feb 2026 16:00 17 Feb 2026 02:00 $0.33640 $0.34630 +2.62% BEAR 11 short_signal
14 Feb 2026 12:00 14 Feb 2026 22:00 $0.34520 $0.36400 +5.12% BEAR 11 short_signal
12 Feb 2026 23:00 13 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.32210 $0.33640 +4.12% BEAR 25 short_signal
11 Feb 2026 15:00 12 Feb 2026 10:00 $0.30020 $0.32940 +9.39% BEAR 20 exit_fp
09 Feb 2026 09:00 09 Feb 2026 20:00 $0.32370 $0.33070 +1.85% BEAR 12 short_signal
07 Feb 2026 06:00 07 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.33460 $0.34310 +2.22% BEAR 12 short_signal
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.31630 $0.34350 +8.26% BEAR 16 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 15:00 03 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.37690 $0.36360 -3.93% BEAR 3 stop
01 Feb 2026 20:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.36060 $0.37830 +4.58% BEAR 20 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 17:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.35490 $0.37390 +4.91% BEAR 8 regime_exit
28 Jan 2026 02:00 28 Jan 2026 11:00 $0.45400 $0.46330 +1.73% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
25 Jan 2026 20:00 27 Jan 2026 13:00 $0.42220 $0.44040 +3.87% SIDEWAYS 42 trail
23 Jan 2026 15:00 23 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.46100 $0.46830 +1.27% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
21 Jan 2026 13:00 21 Jan 2026 21:00 $0.46260 $0.48880 +5.34% SIDEWAYS 9 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 13:00 19 Jan 2026 18:00 $0.48690 $0.50160 +2.60% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 22:00 17 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.57500 $0.59130 +2.41% SIDEWAYS 4 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 05:00 16 Jan 2026 09:00 $0.55600 $0.55990 +0.29% SIDEWAYS 5 signal
13 Jan 2026 08:00 13 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.55550 $0.62070 +11.28% SIDEWAYS 15 exit_fp
12 Jan 2026 15:00 12 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.54370 $0.54150 -0.81% SIDEWAYS 5 signal

Start Trading TIA Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TIA signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → TIA Signals → View Plans →
88.5% Win Rate Sharpe 12.60 74 Trades -15.8% Max Drawdown