Backtests / WIF
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

WIF WIF (WIF) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for WIF. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • Jul 2024 – May 2026 • $0.191000 (+0.53%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

dogwifhat (WIF) is a high-profile Solana memecoin that became a poster child of the 2024 meme-supercycle. WIF exhibits extreme volatility tied to social-media virality and Solana retail flows. Marginal training history; the model treats it under limited-history confidence.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View WIF Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
11.35
Sortino Ratio
8.81
Profit Factor
21.64
Calmar Ratio
2,325,200.87
Win Rate
80.1%
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Avg Drawdown
-15.52%
Alpha vs B&H
+637,992,407.5pp
Total Trades
70
Exposure
37.3%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
+3.67
WIF

WIF Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
—
—
—
+59.0%
21t
+50.3%
23t
+124.8%
24t
+107.6%
19t
+114.2%
28t
+123.9%
27t
 +5,247.9%
2025
+30.2%
23t
+164.0%
20t
+145.1%
16t
+241.5%
17t
+375.1%
26t
+96.9%
17t
+205.1%
22t
+72.8%
14t
+44.0%
19t
+134.6%
17t
+95.1%
18t
+84.0%
14t
 +1,720,418.8%
2026
+119.0%
14t
+54.3%
13t
+93.7%
14t
+90.6%
14t
+7.4%
1t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +1,239.4%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +6.38M× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 80.1% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -30.0% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 70 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +4.86% on 192 trades, WR 84%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 129 78.3% +3.29% 26.29 11.2
BULL 55 67.3% +3.87% 11.46 20.0
SIDEWAYS 192 88.9% +5.17% 8.99 17.1
BEAR 45 85.6% +3.73% 11.22 18.5

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Jul '24 – Oct '24 7.80 867% -29.2% 65.5% 84 Yes
2 Oct '24 – Feb '25 8.21 760% -30.0% 67.7% 93 Yes
3 Feb '25 – Jun '25 15.96 79.0x -10.7% 94.3% 70 Yes
4 Jun '25 – Sep '25 11.12 10.2x -9.3% 76.5% 68 Yes
5 Sep '25 – Jan '26 13.53 13.0x -5.3% 85.0% 60 Yes
6 Jan '26 – May '26 11.46 510% -8.6% 91.3% 46 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+583.8%
Win Rate
92.0%
46W / 4L
Max Drawdown
-4.0%
€10,000 Invested
€68,380
6.8x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
29 Apr 2026 22:00 01 May 2026 15:00 $0.17900 $0.19300 +7.38% SIDEWAYS 42 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.17600 $0.18600 +5.25% SIDEWAYS 42 exit_fp
26 Apr 2026 01:00 27 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.17700 $0.18100 +1.84% SIDEWAYS 26 short_signal
21 Apr 2026 19:00 22 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.19200 $0.20300 +5.30% SIDEWAYS 11 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.19400 $0.20300 +4.21% SIDEWAYS 20 exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 07:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.21400 $0.22200 +3.31% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 19:00 16 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.19200 $0.22100 +14.63% SIDEWAYS 48 exit_fp
13 Apr 2026 01:00 14 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.18900 $0.19800 +4.33% BEAR 26 short_signal
11 Apr 2026 06:00 11 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.19400 $0.20300 +4.21% BEAR 14 exit_fp
09 Apr 2026 06:00 09 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.19100 $0.20000 +4.28% BEAR 15 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 01:00 07 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.17900 $0.20200 +12.39% BEAR 22 exit_fp
05 Apr 2026 08:00 06 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.17700 $0.18900 +6.34% BEAR 29 short_signal
03 Apr 2026 01:00 03 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.17900 $0.18300 +1.82% BEAR 5 exit_fp
01 Apr 2026 23:00 02 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.18200 $0.17630 -3.64% BEAR 13 stop
01 Apr 2026 02:00 01 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.17800 $0.18400 +2.95% BEAR 6 exit_fp
29 Mar 2026 21:00 31 Mar 2026 13:00 $0.17300 $0.18000 +3.62% BEAR 41 exit_fp
27 Mar 2026 23:00 28 Mar 2026 13:00 $0.17000 $0.18000 +5.45% BEAR 15 exit_fp
25 Mar 2026 01:00 25 Mar 2026 08:00 $0.19200 $0.19800 +2.70% BEAR 8 exit_fp
23 Mar 2026 23:00 24 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.18700 $0.18700 -0.41% BEAR 13 short_signal
22 Mar 2026 21:00 23 Mar 2026 10:00 $0.16900 $0.17350 +2.12% BEAR 14 trail
19 Mar 2026 13:00 21 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.17400 $0.18000 +3.03% SIDEWAYS 38 short_signal
18 Mar 2026 15:00 18 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.17600 $0.18200 +2.99% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
16 Mar 2026 20:00 17 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.18700 $0.18900 +0.66% BEAR 7 short_signal
14 Mar 2026 09:00 16 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.16600 $0.18600 +11.59% BEAR 47 exit_fp
12 Mar 2026 07:00 13 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.16400 $0.17700 +7.49% BEAR 30 exit_fp
10 Mar 2026 22:00 11 Mar 2026 18:00 $0.16300 $0.17200 +5.09% BEAR 21 exit_fp
03 Mar 2026 05:00 04 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.19900 $0.22000 +10.10% BEAR 39 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.18600 $0.20600 +10.30% BEAR 21 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 13:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.19000 $0.19800 +3.78% BEAR 13 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 18:00 27 Feb 2026 06:00 $0.20800 $0.21500 +2.94% BEAR 13 exit_fp
25 Feb 2026 01:00 25 Feb 2026 20:00 $0.20100 $0.22300 +10.49% BEAR 20 exit_fp
22 Feb 2026 20:00 23 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.21000 $0.20270 -3.96% BEAR 6 stop
19 Feb 2026 16:00 21 Feb 2026 04:00 $0.21500 $0.22700 +5.15% BEAR 37 exit_fp
18 Feb 2026 22:00 19 Feb 2026 02:00 $0.22200 $0.22300 +0.04% BEAR 5 short_signal
15 Feb 2026 19:00 16 Feb 2026 12:00 $0.22800 $0.23700 +3.52% BEAR 18 exit_fp
11 Feb 2026 10:00 13 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.20800 $0.22100 +5.82% BEAR 62 short_signal
09 Feb 2026 09:00 09 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.22300 $0.22800 +1.82% BEAR 9 exit_fp
07 Feb 2026 07:00 07 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.22500 $0.23500 +4.02% BEAR 12 exit_fp
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.21400 $0.23800 +10.76% BEAR 16 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 13:00 03 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.25700 $0.24880 -3.68% BEAR 5 stop
01 Feb 2026 22:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.24700 $0.26200 +5.64% BEAR 18 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 17:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $0.24700 $0.25500 +2.70% BEAR 8 regime_exit
30 Jan 2026 09:00 30 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.28800 $0.29200 +0.97% SIDEWAYS 9 signal
25 Jan 2026 20:00 26 Jan 2026 14:00 $0.31600 $0.33200 +4.63% SIDEWAYS 19 exit_fp
23 Jan 2026 09:00 23 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.33500 $0.33900 +0.78% SIDEWAYS 8 signal
20 Jan 2026 19:00 21 Jan 2026 15:00 $0.33000 $0.34500 +4.12% SIDEWAYS 21 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 01:00 19 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.33800 $0.35300 +4.01% SIDEWAYS 19 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 01:00 16 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.38500 $0.38800 +0.37% SIDEWAYS 23 exit_fp
13 Jan 2026 01:00 13 Jan 2026 21:00 $0.37100 $0.40200 +7.91% SIDEWAYS 21 exit_fp
11 Jan 2026 23:00 12 Jan 2026 04:00 $0.37700 $0.38800 +2.50% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp

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80.1% Win Rate Sharpe 11.35 70 Trades -30.0% Max Drawdown