Paper Trades / ARB / ARB — May 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia)
CURRENT · OMNISCIUS v4.0.1 · PYTHIA

ARB Arbitrum Paper Trade

ARB — May 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0.1 Pythia model.

v4.0.1 Pythia • 15 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Arbitrum (ARB) is the governance token of the Arbitrum network, the largest Ethereum Layer 2 by total value locked. Arbitrum uses optimistic rollups to provide faster and cheaper transactions while inheriting Ethereum's security. ARB price is influenced by Layer 2 adoption metrics, DeFi activity, and Ethereum scaling narratives. Its relatively young market history provides fresh price patterns for our model to exploit.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ARB Signals →

ARB — May 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) Performancev4.2 Theros

Arbitrum (ARB) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+137.5%
€10,000 →
€23,752
Win Rate
86.7%
13W / 2L
Trades
15
Sharpe
17.69
Alpha vs B&H
+131.30pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
+6.22%
Max Drawdown
-1.17%
Avg Drawdown
-4.65%
Sharpe Trend
-2.11
Model
v4.0.1 Pythia
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA THIS PAGE
Return
+137.52%
Win Rate
86.7%
Sharpe
17.69
Alpha vs B&H
+131.30pp
Max DD
-1.17%
Avg DD
-4.65%
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
15
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ
Return
+130.74%
▲ +6.78
Win Rate
77.8%
▲ +8.87
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +17.69
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +131.30
Max DD
-7.48%
▲ +6.31
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -4.65
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
15
Open v4.0 page →
V2.5.8.3
Return
+107.80%
▲ +29.72
Win Rate
78.9%
▲ +7.77
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +17.69
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +131.30
Max DD
-0.75%
▼ -0.42
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -4.65
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
19
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

ARB

ARB Monthly Returns (v4.0.1 Pythia)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +87.5%
14t
 		+78.8%
16t
 		+58.3%
11t
 		+55.9%
9t
 		+137.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
12t
 		+117.3%
18t
 		+190.1%
14t
—
—
—
—
 +21,516.3%

All months for ARB under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — ARB — May 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
-1.2
6
—
7
—
8
—
9
+24.4
10
+28.4
11
—
12
+0.8
13
+6.7
14
—
15
—
16
+0.1
17
—
18
+6.2
19
—
20
+7.4
21
—
22
—
23
+7.5
24
+1.7
25
-0.4
26
+0.8
27
+6.4
28
—
29
+6.0
30
—
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +137.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 86.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -1.2%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +9.88% on 6 trades, WR 83%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BULL 6 83.3% +9.88% +70.03% 1.0d
BUBBLE 9 88.9% +3.94% +41.06% 13h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 15 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
$0.00 $0.00 -1.17% BULL 9h
$0.00 $0.00 +24.42% BULL 2.8d
$0.00 $0.00 +28.44% BULL 1.1d
$0.00 $0.00 +0.77% BULL 10h
$0.00 $0.00 +6.71% BULL 18h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.12% BULL 20h
$0.00 $0.00 +6.18% BUBBLE 13h
$0.00 $0.00 +7.23% BUBBLE 24h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.13% BUBBLE 6h
$0.00 $0.00 +7.53% BUBBLE 1.3d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.68% BUBBLE 4h
$0.00 $0.00 -0.44% BUBBLE 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.81% BUBBLE 8h
$0.00 $0.00 +6.40% BUBBLE 16h
$0.00 $0.00 +5.97% BUBBLE 10h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live ARB signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Arbitrum Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ARB signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → ARB Signals → View Plans →
86.7% Win Rate +137.5% Return -1.2% Max Drawdown Net of Fees