Paper Trades / OXT / OXT — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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OXT Orchid Paper Trade

OXT — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 15 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Orchid (OXT) powers a decentralized VPN network where users pay providers for bandwidth using a probabilistic nanopayments system. Listed since 2019, OXT has full multi-cycle history including 2021 highs and the subsequent drawdown. Price action is privacy-narrative driven with lower liquidity than mid-caps.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ OXT Signals →

OXT — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Orchid (OXT) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+62.4%
€10,000 →
€16,242
Win Rate
73.2%
11W / 4L
Trades
15
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-4.90%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
11W / 4L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+68.47%
▼ -6.05
Win Rate
73.3%
▼ -0.13
Sharpe
11.26
▼ -11.26
Alpha vs B&H
+74.34pp
▼ -74.34
Max DD
-4.31%
▼ -0.59
Avg DD
-4.71%
▲ +4.71
Risk / Reward
15.87×
Trades
15
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+62.42%
Win Rate
73.2%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-4.90%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
15
V2.5.8.3
Return
+76.81%
▼ -14.39
Win Rate
94.7%
▼ -21.50
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-5.30%
▲ +0.40
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
19
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

OXT

OXT Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +68.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
16t
 		+62.4%
18t
 		+48.1%
14t
 		+71.0%
14t
 		+48.5%
15t
 		+60.9%
15t
 		+66.7%
12t
—
—
—
—
 +4,718.7%

All months for OXT under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — OXT — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
+2.6
7
—
8
—
9
+5.1
10
+3.4
11
—
12
—
13
-1.0
14
—
15
+7.2
16
—
17
—
18
+5.7
19
+4.4
20
-1.2
21
—
22
+2.9
23
—
24
+2.9
25
—
26
+1.0
27
-4.3
28
+4.9
29
—
30
—
31
+17.4
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +62.4% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 73.2%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.44% on 13 trades, WR 77%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 13 76.9% +3.44% +53.01% 18h
BULL 2 50.0% +3.11% +6.14% 1.1d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 15 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jan 2025 01:00 06 Jan 2025 16:00 $0.12 $0.13 +2.57% BUBBLE 16h
08 Jan 2025 01:00 09 Jan 2025 01:00 $0.11 $0.12 +5.09% BUBBLE 1d
09 Jan 2025 20:00 10 Jan 2025 09:00 $0.11 $0.11 +3.38% BUBBLE 14h
12 Jan 2025 22:00 13 Jan 2025 04:00 $0.11 $0.11 -0.96% BULL 7h
13 Jan 2025 17:00 15 Jan 2025 12:00 $0.10 $0.11 +7.17% BULL 1.8d
17 Jan 2025 00:00 18 Jan 2025 00:00 $0.11 $0.12 +6.48% BUBBLE 1d
18 Jan 2025 19:00 18 Jan 2025 22:00 $0.12 $0.11 -0.76% BUBBLE 4h
19 Jan 2025 09:00 19 Jan 2025 17:00 $0.11 $0.12 +4.44% BUBBLE 9h
20 Jan 2025 06:00 20 Jan 2025 16:00 $0.12 $0.12 -1.18% BUBBLE 11h
21 Jan 2025 05:00 22 Jan 2025 01:00 $0.11 $0.11 +2.86% BUBBLE 21h
23 Jan 2025 09:00 24 Jan 2025 06:00 $0.11 $0.11 +2.89% BUBBLE 22h
26 Jan 2025 04:00 26 Jan 2025 12:00 $0.11 $0.11 +0.98% BUBBLE 9h
27 Jan 2025 02:00 27 Jan 2025 06:00 $0.11 $0.10 -4.31% BUBBLE 5h
27 Jan 2025 19:00 28 Jan 2025 04:00 $0.10 $0.11 +4.88% BUBBLE 10h
28 Jan 2025 22:00 31 Jan 2025 10:00 $0.10 $0.12 +17.39% BUBBLE 2.5d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live OXT signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Orchid Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time OXT signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → OXT Signals → View Plans →
73.2% Win Rate +62.4% Return -4.9% Max Drawdown Net of Fees