Paper Trades / OXT / OXT — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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OXT Orchid Paper Trade

OXT — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 18 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Orchid (OXT) powers a decentralized VPN network where users pay providers for bandwidth using a probabilistic nanopayments system. Listed since 2019, OXT has full multi-cycle history including 2021 highs and the subsequent drawdown. Price action is privacy-narrative driven with lower liquidity than mid-caps.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ OXT Signals →

OXT — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Orchid (OXT) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+60.7%
€10,000 →
€16,066
Win Rate
79.2%
16W / 2L
Trades
18
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-5.61%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
16W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+62.39%
▼ -1.73
Win Rate
88.9%
▼ -9.69
Sharpe
9.69
▼ -9.69
Alpha vs B&H
+86.97pp
▼ -86.97
Max DD
-2.25%
▼ -3.36
Avg DD
-3.88%
▲ +3.88
Risk / Reward
27.67×
Trades
18
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+60.66%
Win Rate
79.2%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-5.61%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
18
V2.5.8.3
Return
+53.83%
▲ +6.83
Win Rate
81.8%
▼ -2.60
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.73%
▼ -4.88
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
22
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

OXT

OXT Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +68.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
16t
 		+62.4%
18t
 		+48.1%
14t
 		+71.0%
14t
 		+48.5%
15t
 		+60.9%
15t
 		+66.7%
12t
—
—
—
—
 +4,718.7%

All months for OXT under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — OXT — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
+12.4
3
—
4
—
5
+4.3
6
—
7
+3.4
8
0.0
9
—
10
+5.1
11
—
12
+4.5
13
+3.6
14
+4.1
15
—
16
+0.3
17
—
18
+2.6
19
+1.9
20
—
21
—
22
—
23
+2.2
24
+3.4
25
+1.2
26
—
27
+1.0
28
+1.4
29
—
30
-2.3
31
+1.2
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +60.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 79.2%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +8.34% on 2 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 16 87.5% +2.08% +38.70% 17h
BEAR 2 100.0% +8.34% +17.21% 19h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 18 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
02 Mar 2025 02:00 02 Mar 2025 21:00 $0.09 $0.10 +12.40% BEAR 20h
04 Mar 2025 13:00 05 Mar 2025 05:00 $0.08 $0.08 +4.28% BEAR 17h
06 Mar 2025 18:00 07 Mar 2025 20:00 $0.08 $0.08 +3.35% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
08 Mar 2025 09:00 08 Mar 2025 12:00 $0.08 $0.08 -0.03% SIDEWAYS 4h
09 Mar 2025 18:00 10 Mar 2025 12:00 $0.07 $0.08 +5.06% SIDEWAYS 19h
11 Mar 2025 01:00 12 Mar 2025 13:00 $0.07 $0.08 +4.45% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
13 Mar 2025 07:00 13 Mar 2025 09:00 $0.07 $0.08 +3.58% SIDEWAYS 3h
13 Mar 2025 22:00 14 Mar 2025 18:00 $0.07 $0.08 +4.14% SIDEWAYS 21h
16 Mar 2025 14:00 16 Mar 2025 16:00 $0.07 $0.07 +0.27% SIDEWAYS 3h
17 Mar 2025 05:00 18 Mar 2025 10:00 $0.07 $0.08 +2.57% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
18 Mar 2025 23:00 19 Mar 2025 23:00 $0.08 $0.08 +1.85% SIDEWAYS 1d
21 Mar 2025 09:00 23 Mar 2025 12:00 $0.07 $0.07 +2.22% SIDEWAYS 2.2d
24 Mar 2025 01:00 24 Mar 2025 13:00 $0.07 $0.07 +3.35% SIDEWAYS 13h
25 Mar 2025 14:00 25 Mar 2025 22:00 $0.07 $0.07 +1.22% SIDEWAYS 9h
27 Mar 2025 00:00 27 Mar 2025 03:00 $0.07 $0.07 +0.95% SIDEWAYS 4h
28 Mar 2025 18:00 28 Mar 2025 22:00 $0.07 $0.07 +1.42% SIDEWAYS 5h
30 Mar 2025 02:00 30 Mar 2025 16:00 $0.06 $0.06 -2.25% SIDEWAYS 15h
31 Mar 2025 09:00 31 Mar 2025 15:00 $0.06 $0.06 +1.17% SIDEWAYS 7h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live OXT signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Orchid Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time OXT signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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79.2% Win Rate +60.7% Return -5.6% Max Drawdown Net of Fees