Paper Trades / OXT / OXT — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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OXT Orchid Paper Trade

OXT — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 14 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Orchid (OXT) powers a decentralized VPN network where users pay providers for bandwidth using a probabilistic nanopayments system. Listed since 2019, OXT has full multi-cycle history including 2021 highs and the subsequent drawdown. Price action is privacy-narrative driven with lower liquidity than mid-caps.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ OXT Signals →

OXT — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Orchid (OXT) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+65.9%
€10,000 →
€16,590
Win Rate
85.4%
12W / 2L
Trades
14
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-6.20%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
12W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+71.04%
▼ -5.14
Win Rate
92.9%
▼ -7.46
Sharpe
12.19
▼ -12.19
Alpha vs B&H
+91.00pp
▼ -91.00
Max DD
-1.76%
▼ -4.44
Avg DD
-4.54%
▲ +4.54
Risk / Reward
40.46×
Trades
14
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+65.90%
Win Rate
85.4%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-6.20%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
V2.5.8.3
Return
+43.76%
▲ +22.14
Win Rate
82.4%
▲ +3.00
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.77%
▼ -5.43
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
17
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

OXT

OXT Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +68.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
16t
 		+62.4%
18t
 		+48.1%
14t
 		+71.0%
14t
 		+48.5%
15t
 		+60.9%
15t
 		+66.7%
12t
—
—
—
—
 +4,718.7%

All months for OXT under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — OXT — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
+2.1
5
—
6
—
7
+0.8
8
—
9
—
10
+17.0
11
—
12
+4.2
13
—
14
+5.2
15
-0.8
16
—
17
—
18
-1.8
19
—
20
+4.5
21
—
22
+3.2
23
—
24
+1.1
25
—
26
+3.5
27
+2.5
28
—
29
—
30
+10.9
31
+0.7
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +65.9% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 85.4% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +4.74% on 6 trades, WR 83%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BULL 6 83.3% +4.74% +30.83% 1.1d
BUBBLE 8 87.5% +3.07% +26.81% 19h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 14 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
04 May 2025 09:00 04 May 2025 22:00 $0.07 $0.07 +2.10% BULL 14h
06 May 2025 14:00 07 May 2025 02:00 $0.06 $0.07 +0.82% BULL 13h
07 May 2025 20:00 10 May 2025 23:00 $0.06 $0.08 +16.97% BULL 3.2d
11 May 2025 17:00 12 May 2025 13:00 $0.07 $0.08 +4.17% BULL 21h
13 May 2025 02:00 14 May 2025 02:00 $0.07 $0.08 +5.20% BULL 1d
15 May 2025 08:00 15 May 2025 18:00 $0.07 $0.07 -0.85% BULL 11h
18 May 2025 02:00 18 May 2025 20:00 $0.06 $0.06 -1.76% BUBBLE 19h
19 May 2025 10:00 20 May 2025 02:00 $0.06 $0.07 +4.54% BUBBLE 17h
20 May 2025 15:00 22 May 2025 19:00 $0.06 $0.07 +3.16% BUBBLE 2.2d
24 May 2025 01:00 24 May 2025 10:00 $0.06 $0.06 +1.05% BUBBLE 10h
25 May 2025 09:00 26 May 2025 13:00 $0.06 $0.06 +3.45% BUBBLE 1.2d
27 May 2025 02:00 27 May 2025 08:00 $0.06 $0.06 +2.50% BUBBLE 7h
29 May 2025 21:00 30 May 2025 12:00 $0.06 $0.07 +10.92% BUBBLE 16h
31 May 2025 03:00 31 May 2025 05:00 $0.05 $0.05 +0.71% BUBBLE 3h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live OXT signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Orchid Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time OXT signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → OXT Signals → View Plans →
85.4% Win Rate +65.9% Return -6.2% Max Drawdown Net of Fees