Paper Trades / POL / POL — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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POL Polygon Paper Trade

POL — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 16 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Polygon (POL, formerly MATIC) is an Ethereum scaling ecosystem offering multiple Layer 2 solutions including zkEVM, PoS chain, and CDK. Polygon is one of the most widely adopted scaling solutions with partnerships from major brands. POL price tracks Ethereum scaling narratives and Layer 2 competition dynamics, creating distinct trading patterns from the broader market.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ POL Signals →

POL — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Polygon (POL) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+33.2%
€10,000 →
€13,323
Win Rate
73.0%
11W / 4L
Trades
16
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-7.26%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
11W / 4L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+37.06%
▼ -3.83
Win Rate
76.5%
▼ -3.47
Sharpe
8.84
▼ -8.84
Alpha vs B&H
+59.29pp
▼ -59.29
Max DD
-3.33%
▼ -3.93
Avg DD
-5.59%
▲ +5.59
Risk / Reward
11.14×
Trades
17
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+33.23%
Win Rate
73.0%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-7.26%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
16
V2.5.8.3
Return
+54.04%
▼ -20.81
Win Rate
88.9%
▼ -15.90
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.23%
▼ -7.03
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
18
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

POL

POL Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +37.1%
17t
 		+56.4%
14t
 		+52.2%
16t
 		+45.7%
12t
 		+60.7%
13t
 		+33.8%
10t
 		+93.0%
12t
 		+137.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +4,588.1%

All months for POL under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — POL — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
+1.0
6
—
7
—
8
—
9
+0.0
10
+1.6
11
—
12
—
13
-3.3
14
—
15
—
16
+11.9
17
-2.1
18
—
19
+7.7
20
+5.1
21
+0.2
22
—
23
+0.8
24
—
25
+0.7
26
—
27
+3.2
28
—
29
+1.5
30
—
31
+2.6
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +33.2% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 73.0%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.03% on 12 trades, WR 83%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 12 83.3% +2.03% +26.93% 10h
BULL 4 25.0% +1.66% +5.94% 20h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 16 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Jan 2025 10:00 05 Jan 2025 22:00 $0.51 $0.52 +0.95% BUBBLE 13h
08 Jan 2025 13:00 09 Jan 2025 01:00 $0.46 $0.46 +0.00% BUBBLE 13h
10 Jan 2025 04:00 10 Jan 2025 12:00 $0.45 $0.46 +1.62% BUBBLE 9h
12 Jan 2025 23:00 13 Jan 2025 05:00 $0.45 $0.44 -3.33% BULL 7h
13 Jan 2025 18:00 16 Jan 2025 02:00 $0.42 $0.48 +13.05% BULL 2.4d
16 Jan 2025 15:00 16 Jan 2025 21:00 $0.48 $0.48 -1.03% BULL 7h
17 Jan 2025 10:00 17 Jan 2025 16:00 $0.52 $0.51 -2.05% BULL 7h
19 Jan 2025 11:00 19 Jan 2025 14:00 $0.45 $0.48 +7.65% BUBBLE 4h
20 Jan 2025 03:00 20 Jan 2025 07:00 $0.45 $0.48 +5.76% BUBBLE 5h
20 Jan 2025 20:00 20 Jan 2025 22:00 $0.45 $0.45 -0.59% BUBBLE 3h
21 Jan 2025 11:00 21 Jan 2025 22:00 $0.45 $0.46 +0.25% BUBBLE 12h
23 Jan 2025 13:00 23 Jan 2025 15:00 $0.44 $0.44 +0.78% BUBBLE 3h
25 Jan 2025 01:00 25 Jan 2025 03:00 $0.43 $0.44 +0.72% BUBBLE 3h
27 Jan 2025 08:00 27 Jan 2025 21:00 $0.40 $0.41 +3.16% BUBBLE 14h
29 Jan 2025 01:00 29 Jan 2025 06:00 $0.40 $0.40 +1.48% BUBBLE 6h
29 Jan 2025 19:00 31 Jan 2025 02:00 $0.40 $0.41 +2.62% BUBBLE 1.3d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live POL signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Polygon Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time POL signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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73.0% Win Rate +33.2% Return -7.3% Max Drawdown Net of Fees