Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

BTC — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 12 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+19.4%
€10,000 →
€11,938
Win Rate
83.3%
10W / 2L
Trades
12
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-1.85%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
10W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+20.15%
▼ -0.77
Win Rate
85.7%
▼ -2.41
Sharpe
12.56
▼ -12.56
Alpha vs B&H
+13.26pp
▼ -13.26
Max DD
-0.24%
▼ -1.61
Avg DD
-0.94%
▲ +0.94
Risk / Reward
82.91×
Trades
14
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+19.38%
Win Rate
83.3%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-1.85%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
12
V2.5.8.3
Return
+25.10%
▼ -5.72
Win Rate
93.3%
▼ -10.00
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.05%
▼ -1.80
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
15
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

BTC

BTC Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +41.1%
12t
 		+21.0%
16t
 		+40.4%
14t
 		+39.4%
14t
 		+27.6%
13t
 		+20.3%
12t
 		+20.2%
14t
 		+15.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +613.2%

All months for BTC under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — BTC — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
—
7
-0.5
8
—
9
—
10
—
11
—
12
+9.3
13
—
14
+2.8
15
—
16
—
17
+1.5
18
+0.5
19
-0.1
20
—
21
+0.9
22
—
23
+2.0
24
+0.5
25
+0.3
26
—
27
—
28
+1.4
29
—
30
—
31
+0.6
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Solid return: +19.4%, comfortably above passive hold for most months.
  • ↑ High win rate: 83.3% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -1.9%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +1.59% on 12 trades, WR 83%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 12 83.3% +1.59% +20.47% 1.2d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 12 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 14:00 07 Jul 2025 09:00 $108,933.25 $108,849.06 -0.49% BUBBLE 20h
07 Jul 2025 22:00 12 Jul 2025 09:00 $108,019.23 $118,158.78 +9.28% BUBBLE 4.5d
12 Jul 2025 22:00 14 Jul 2025 03:00 $117,385.37 $120,750.24 +2.76% BUBBLE 1.3d
15 Jul 2025 20:00 17 Jul 2025 03:00 $116,419.02 $118,283.75 +1.46% BUBBLE 1.3d
17 Jul 2025 18:00 18 Jul 2025 01:00 $119,580.00 $120,336.88 +0.53% BUBBLE 8h
19 Jul 2025 01:00 19 Jul 2025 19:00 $118,036.73 $118,007.88 -0.12% BUBBLE 19h
21 Jul 2025 01:00 21 Jul 2025 13:00 $117,305.86 $118,834.00 +0.89% BUBBLE 13h
22 Jul 2025 02:00 23 Jul 2025 01:00 $117,027.81 $119,488.22 +2.00% BUBBLE 24h
23 Jul 2025 14:00 24 Jul 2025 19:00 $118,204.99 $118,943.42 +0.52% BUBBLE 1.3d
25 Jul 2025 09:00 25 Jul 2025 11:00 $116,033.44 $116,543.58 +0.34% BUBBLE 3h
26 Jul 2025 00:00 28 Jul 2025 00:00 $117,496.00 $119,236.72 +1.38% BUBBLE 2d
30 Jul 2025 13:00 31 Jul 2025 03:00 $117,675.79 $118,466.14 +0.57% BUBBLE 15h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
83.3% Win Rate +19.4% Return -1.9% Max Drawdown Net of Fees