Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — August 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia)
CURRENT · OMNISCIUS v4.0.1 · PYTHIA

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

BTC — August 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0.1 Pythia model.

v4.0.1 Pythia • 13 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — August 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+15.7%
€10,000 →
€11,574
Win Rate
92.3%
12W / 1L
Trades
13
Sharpe
8.94
Alpha vs B&H
+20.31pp
Risk / Reward
50.61×
B&H Return
-4.57%
Max Drawdown
-0.31%
Avg Drawdown
-0.73%
Sharpe Trend
-3.52
Model
v4.0.1 Pythia
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA THIS PAGE
Return
+15.74%
Win Rate
92.3%
Sharpe
8.94
Alpha vs B&H
+20.31pp
Max DD
-0.31%
Avg DD
-0.73%
Risk / Reward
50.61×
Trades
13
V2.5.8.3
Return
+22.85%
▼ -7.11
Win Rate
92.9%
▼ -0.59
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +8.94
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +20.31
Max DD
-0.20%
▼ -0.11
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -0.73
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

BTC

BTC Monthly Returns (v4.0.1 Pythia)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +41.1%
12t
 		+21.0%
16t
 		+40.4%
14t
 		+39.4%
14t
 		+27.6%
13t
 		+20.3%
12t
 		+20.2%
14t
 		+15.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +613.2%

All months for BTC under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — BTC — August 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
+0.6
6
—
7
+1.2
8
+0.2
9
+0.7
10
—
11
+3.1
12
—
13
—
14
+4.1
15
—
16
—
17
—
18
—
19
-0.3
20
—
21
+1.4
22
—
23
+3.6
24
+0.5
25
—
26
—
27
+0.7
28
+1.3
29
—
30
—
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Solid return: +15.7%, comfortably above passive hold for most months.
  • ↑ High win rate: 92.3% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -0.3%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +1.38% on 8 trades, WR 88%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BULL 8 87.5% +1.38% +11.47% 1.2d
SIDEWAYS 5 100.0% +1.21% +6.18% 16h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 13 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
$0.00 $0.00 +0.65% BULL 2d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.20% BULL 1.6d
$0.00 $0.00 +0.16% BULL 15h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.71% BULL 9h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.10% BULL 1.2d
$0.00 $0.00 +4.07% BULL 2.1d
$0.00 $0.00 -0.31% BULL 13h
$0.00 $0.00 +1.43% BULL 1d
$0.00 $0.00 +3.10% SIDEWAYS 1d
$0.00 $0.00 +0.44% SIDEWAYS 9h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.54% SIDEWAYS 4h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.66% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.32% SIDEWAYS 12h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
92.3% Win Rate +15.7% Return -0.3% Max Drawdown Net of Fees