Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — July 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia)
CURRENT · OMNISCIUS v4.0.1 · PYTHIA

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

BTC — July 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0.1 Pythia model.

v4.0.1 Pythia • 14 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — July 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+20.2%
€10,000 →
€12,015
Win Rate
85.7%
12W / 2L
Trades
14
Sharpe
12.56
Alpha vs B&H
+13.26pp
Risk / Reward
82.91×
B&H Return
+6.89%
Max Drawdown
-0.24%
Avg Drawdown
-0.94%
Sharpe Trend
-3.53
Model
v4.0.1 Pythia
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA THIS PAGE
Return
+20.15%
Win Rate
85.7%
Sharpe
12.56
Alpha vs B&H
+13.26pp
Max DD
-0.24%
Avg DD
-0.94%
Risk / Reward
82.91×
Trades
14
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ
Return
+19.38%
▲ +0.77
Win Rate
83.3%
▲ +2.41
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +12.56
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +13.26
Max DD
-1.85%
▲ +1.61
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -0.94
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
12
Open v4.0 page →
V2.5.8.3
Return
+25.10%
▼ -4.95
Win Rate
93.3%
▼ -7.59
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +12.56
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +13.26
Max DD
-0.05%
▼ -0.19
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -0.94
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
15
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

BTC

BTC Monthly Returns (v4.0.1 Pythia)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +41.1%
12t
 		+21.0%
16t
 		+40.4%
14t
 		+39.4%
14t
 		+27.6%
13t
 		+20.3%
12t
 		+20.2%
14t
 		+15.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +613.2%

All months for BTC under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — BTC — July 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
—
7
-0.5
8
+0.8
9
—
10
—
11
+7.9
12
—
13
—
14
+2.7
15
—
16
+2.4
17
+1.2
18
—
19
-0.1
20
—
21
+0.9
22
—
23
+2.0
24
+0.6
25
+0.3
26
+0.4
27
—
28
+0.7
29
—
30
+0.8
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Solid return: +20.2%, comfortably above passive hold for most months.
  • ↑ High win rate: 85.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -0.2%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +1.48% on 13 trades, WR 85%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 13 84.6% +1.48% +20.78% 18h
BULL 1 100.0% +0.84% +0.84% 16h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 14 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
$0.00 $0.00 -0.49% BUBBLE 20h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.84% BULL 16h
$0.00 $0.00 +7.93% BUBBLE 1.8d
$0.00 $0.00 +2.68% BUBBLE 1.3d
$0.00 $0.00 +2.37% BUBBLE 21h
$0.00 $0.00 +1.16% BUBBLE 13h
$0.00 $0.00 -0.12% BUBBLE 19h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.89% BUBBLE 13h
$0.00 $0.00 +2.00% BUBBLE 24h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.62% BUBBLE 11h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.34% BUBBLE 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.44% BUBBLE 14h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.68% BUBBLE 23h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.78% BUBBLE 2h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
85.7% Win Rate +20.2% Return -0.2% Max Drawdown Net of Fees