Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

BTC — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 10 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+40.3%
€10,000 →
€14,030
Win Rate
90.0%
9W / 1L
Trades
10
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-2.86%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
9W / 1L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+41.05%
▼ -0.75
Win Rate
100.0%
▼ -10.00
Sharpe
16.22
▼ -16.22
Alpha vs B&H
+36.31pp
▼ -36.31
Max DD
0.00%
▼ -2.86
Avg DD
-1.63%
▲ +1.63
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
12
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+40.30%
Win Rate
90.0%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-2.86%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
10
OMNISCIUS V2.0
Return
+9.56%
▲ +30.74
Win Rate
0.0%
▲ +90.00
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
0.00%
▼ -2.86
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
0
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

BTC

BTC Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +41.1%
12t
 		+21.0%
16t
 		+40.4%
14t
 		+39.4%
14t
 		+27.6%
13t
 		+20.3%
12t
 		+20.2%
14t
 		+15.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +613.2%

All months for BTC under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — BTC — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
+3.6
7
—
8
+0.0
9
—
10
—
11
+2.2
12
—
13
-0.2
14
—
15
—
16
—
17
—
18
+13.9
19
—
20
+6.8
21
—
22
+3.2
23
—
24
+3.8
25
—
26
—
27
—
28
+3.7
29
—
30
+3.2
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +40.3% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 90.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.9%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.76% on 8 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 8 100.0% +4.76% +44.34% 1.5d
BULL 2 50.0% +1.04% +2.08% 1.4d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 10 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Jan 2025 02:00 06 Jan 2025 20:00 $98,227.48 $102,127.38 +3.55% BUBBLE 1.8d
08 Jan 2025 13:00 08 Jan 2025 15:00 $95,384.00 $95,493.77 +0.02% BUBBLE 3h
09 Jan 2025 20:00 11 Jan 2025 04:00 $91,903.22 $94,093.71 +2.24% BULL 1.4d
11 Jan 2025 18:00 13 Jan 2025 01:00 $94,275.79 $94,218.01 -0.16% BULL 1.3d
13 Jan 2025 14:00 18 Jan 2025 00:00 $91,833.03 $104,656.87 +13.85% BUBBLE 4.5d
20 Jan 2025 01:00 20 Jan 2025 13:00 $100,692.82 $107,956.31 +6.78% BUBBLE 13h
21 Jan 2025 02:00 22 Jan 2025 00:00 $102,545.56 $105,948.00 +3.21% BUBBLE 23h
23 Jan 2025 10:00 24 Jan 2025 16:00 $101,683.61 $105,645.89 +3.79% BUBBLE 1.3d
27 Jan 2025 07:00 28 Jan 2025 15:00 $99,048.02 $102,777.99 +3.66% BUBBLE 1.4d
29 Jan 2025 04:00 30 Jan 2025 09:00 $102,001.06 $105,412.05 +3.24% BUBBLE 1.3d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
90.0% Win Rate +40.3% Return -2.9% Max Drawdown Net of Fees