Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

BTC — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 12 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+33.7%
€10,000 →
€13,371
Win Rate
61.1%
10W / 2L
Trades
12
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-2.63%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
10W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+40.38%
▼ -6.67
Win Rate
85.7%
▼ -24.61
Sharpe
8.82
▼ -8.82
Alpha vs B&H
+44.50pp
▼ -44.50
Max DD
-0.32%
▼ -2.31
Avg DD
-1.85%
▲ +1.85
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
14
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+33.71%
Win Rate
61.1%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-2.63%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
12
OMNISCIUS V2.0
Return
+38.27%
▼ -4.56
Win Rate
0.0%
▲ +61.10
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
0.00%
▼ -2.63
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
0
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

BTC

BTC Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +41.1%
12t
 		+21.0%
16t
 		+40.4%
14t
 		+39.4%
14t
 		+27.6%
13t
 		+20.3%
12t
 		+20.2%
14t
 		+15.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +613.2%

All months for BTC under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — BTC — March 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
+8.3
4
—
5
+5.6
6
+1.6
7
—
8
—
9
—
10
—
11
—
12
+2.9
13
—
14
—
15
+5.5
16
—
17
—
18
+0.2
19
—
20
+4.5
21
—
22
+0.1
23
+0.8
24
—
25
+0.4
26
—
27
-0.1
28
—
29
—
30
-0.7
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +33.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 61.1%.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.6%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +6.99% on 2 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 10 80.0% +1.54% +16.24% 22h
BEAR 2 100.0% +6.99% +14.44% 1.3d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 12 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
02 Mar 2025 02:00 03 Mar 2025 00:00 $85,774.01 $93,314.89 +8.35% BEAR 23h
04 Mar 2025 02:00 05 Mar 2025 14:00 $83,936.41 $88,777.24 +5.62% BEAR 1.5d
06 Mar 2025 18:00 06 Mar 2025 21:00 $88,428.41 $89,939.00 +1.61% SIDEWAYS 4h
11 Mar 2025 01:00 12 Mar 2025 06:00 $79,130.66 $81,570.77 +2.94% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
13 Mar 2025 17:00 15 Mar 2025 02:00 $80,064.00 $84,557.95 +5.51% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
16 Mar 2025 12:00 18 Mar 2025 08:00 $82,755.89 $83,281.29 +0.22% SIDEWAYS 1.9d
18 Mar 2025 21:00 20 Mar 2025 01:00 $82,062.98 $85,867.96 +4.53% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
20 Mar 2025 17:00 22 Mar 2025 17:00 $84,093.43 $84,238.83 +0.07% SIDEWAYS 2d
23 Mar 2025 06:00 23 Mar 2025 19:00 $84,242.24 $85,011.19 +0.81% SIDEWAYS 14h
25 Mar 2025 05:00 25 Mar 2025 10:00 $86,656.07 $87,130.14 +0.45% SIDEWAYS 6h
27 Mar 2025 01:00 27 Mar 2025 09:00 $87,378.87 $87,415.56 -0.06% SIDEWAYS 9h
30 Mar 2025 08:00 30 Mar 2025 10:00 $83,378.09 $83,120.87 -0.72% SIDEWAYS 3h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
61.1% Win Rate +33.7% Return -2.6% Max Drawdown Net of Fees