Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 14 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+69.1%
€10,000 →
€16,908
Win Rate
77.1%
11W / 3L
Trades
14
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-5.95%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
11W / 3L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+99.74%
▼ -30.66
Win Rate
86.7%
▼ -9.57
Sharpe
14.35
▼ -14.35
Alpha vs B&H
+132.77pp
▼ -132.77
Max DD
-4.86%
▼ -1.09
Avg DD
-4.26%
▲ +4.26
Risk / Reward
20.51×
Trades
15
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+69.08%
Win Rate
77.1%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-5.95%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
V2.5.8.3
Return
+64.57%
▲ +4.51
Win Rate
84.2%
▼ -7.10
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-3.88%
▼ -2.07
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
19
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

MOVR

MOVR Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +99.7%
15t
 		+169.4%
18t
 		+60.3%
16t
 		+44.3%
11t
 		+92.9%
14t
 		+35.3%
12t
 		+86.4%
15t
 		+127.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +13,679.3%

All months for MOVR under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
+0.4
7
—
8
-0.5
9
+4.5
10
-0.4
11
—
12
—
13
—
14
—
15
—
16
+15.2
17
—
18
+10.1
19
+1.4
20
+7.0
21
—
22
+5.7
23
—
24
+3.7
25
—
26
+6.1
27
-4.9
28
+3.3
29
—
30
—
31
+6.7
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +69.1% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 77.1%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.33% on 13 trades, WR 77%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 13 76.9% +3.33% +51.71% 18h
BULL 1 100.0% +15.21% +15.21% 2.7d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 14 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jan 2025 02:00 06 Jan 2025 17:00 $13.96 $14.07 +0.44% BUBBLE 16h
08 Jan 2025 13:00 08 Jan 2025 15:00 $11.81 $11.78 -0.49% BUBBLE 3h
09 Jan 2025 13:00 09 Jan 2025 16:00 $11.10 $11.62 +4.51% BUBBLE 4h
10 Jan 2025 06:00 10 Jan 2025 08:00 $11.58 $11.56 -0.38% BUBBLE 3h
13 Jan 2025 09:00 16 Jan 2025 00:00 $10.34 $11.93 +15.21% BULL 2.7d
16 Jan 2025 14:00 18 Jan 2025 00:00 $11.52 $12.70 +10.11% BUBBLE 1.5d
19 Jan 2025 09:00 19 Jan 2025 16:00 $10.90 $11.09 +1.38% BUBBLE 8h
20 Jan 2025 05:00 20 Jan 2025 09:00 $9.89 $10.62 +7.01% BUBBLE 5h
21 Jan 2025 00:00 22 Jan 2025 01:00 $9.76 $10.34 +5.68% BUBBLE 1.1d
23 Jan 2025 09:00 24 Jan 2025 12:00 $9.77 $10.15 +3.73% BUBBLE 1.2d
25 Jan 2025 01:00 26 Jan 2025 08:00 $9.64 $10.25 +6.14% BUBBLE 1.3d
27 Jan 2025 00:00 27 Jan 2025 06:00 $9.54 $9.10 -4.86% BUBBLE 7h
27 Jan 2025 19:00 28 Jan 2025 01:00 $9.15 $9.47 +3.34% BUBBLE 7h
28 Jan 2025 21:00 31 Jan 2025 02:00 $8.76 $9.36 +6.69% BUBBLE 2.3d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
77.1% Win Rate +69.1% Return -6.0% Max Drawdown Net of Fees