Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — March 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia)
CURRENT · OMNISCIUS v4.0.1 · PYTHIA

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

MOVR — March 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0.1 Pythia model.

v4.0.1 Pythia • 16 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — March 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+60.3%
€10,000 →
€16,028
Win Rate
93.8%
15W / 1L
Trades
16
Sharpe
11.00
Alpha vs B&H
+80.80pp
Risk / Reward
28.86×
B&H Return
-20.52%
Max Drawdown
-2.09%
Avg Drawdown
-3.91%
Sharpe Trend
-22.01
Model
v4.0.1 Pythia
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA THIS PAGE
Return
+60.28%
Win Rate
93.8%
Sharpe
11.00
Alpha vs B&H
+80.80pp
Max DD
-2.09%
Avg DD
-3.91%
Risk / Reward
28.86×
Trades
16
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ
Return
+52.71%
▲ +7.57
Win Rate
83.3%
▲ +10.45
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +11.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +80.80
Max DD
-5.45%
▲ +3.36
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -3.91
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
16
Open v4.0 page →
V2.5.8.3
Return
+46.70%
▲ +13.58
Win Rate
78.9%
▲ +14.85
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +11.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +80.80
Max DD
-0.35%
▼ -1.74
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -3.91
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
19
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

MOVR

MOVR Monthly Returns (v4.0.1 Pythia)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +99.7%
15t
 		+169.4%
18t
 		+60.3%
16t
 		+44.3%
11t
 		+92.9%
14t
 		+35.3%
12t
 		+86.4%
15t
 		+127.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +13,679.3%

All months for MOVR under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — MOVR — March 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
+8.0
3
—
4
—
5
+9.0
6
+3.6
7
+2.9
8
—
9
—
10
+1.2
11
—
12
+10.6
13
—
14
+2.8
15
—
16
+0.6
17
+3.7
18
—
19
—
20
+3.1
21
—
22
—
23
+5.1
24
+4.3
25
—
26
—
27
+0.5
28
+0.1
29
—
30
+0.6
31
-2.1
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +60.3% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 93.8% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.1%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +8.50% on 2 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 14 92.9% +2.63% +43.00% 18h
BEAR 2 100.0% +8.50% +17.72% 17h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 16 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
$0.00 $0.00 +7.96% BEAR 16h
$0.00 $0.00 +9.04% BEAR 18h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.61% SIDEWAYS 19h
$0.00 $0.00 +2.87% SIDEWAYS 21h
$0.00 $0.00 +1.20% SIDEWAYS 11h
$0.00 $0.00 +10.55% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
$0.00 $0.00 +2.75% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
$0.00 $0.00 +0.58% SIDEWAYS 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.70% SIDEWAYS 16h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.09% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
$0.00 $0.00 +5.10% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
$0.00 $0.00 +4.26% SIDEWAYS 21h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.47% SIDEWAYS 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.09% SIDEWAYS 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.61% SIDEWAYS 7h
$0.00 $0.00 -2.09% SIDEWAYS 3h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
93.8% Win Rate +60.3% Return -2.1% Max Drawdown Net of Fees