Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia)
CURRENT · OMNISCIUS v4.0.1 · PYTHIA

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0.1 Pythia model.

v4.0.1 Pythia • 15 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+99.7%
€10,000 →
€19,974
Win Rate
86.7%
13W / 2L
Trades
15
Sharpe
14.35
Alpha vs B&H
+132.77pp
Risk / Reward
20.51×
B&H Return
-33.03%
Max Drawdown
-4.86%
Avg Drawdown
-4.26%
Sharpe Trend
+0.02
Model
v4.0.1 Pythia
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA THIS PAGE
Return
+99.74%
Win Rate
86.7%
Sharpe
14.35
Alpha vs B&H
+132.77pp
Max DD
-4.86%
Avg DD
-4.26%
Risk / Reward
20.51×
Trades
15
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ
Return
+69.08%
▲ +30.66
Win Rate
77.1%
▲ +9.57
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +14.35
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +132.77
Max DD
-5.95%
▲ +1.09
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -4.26
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
Open v4.0 page →
V2.5.8.3
Return
+64.57%
▲ +35.17
Win Rate
84.2%
▲ +2.47
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +14.35
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +132.77
Max DD
-3.88%
▼ -0.98
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -4.26
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
19
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

MOVR

MOVR Monthly Returns (v4.0.1 Pythia)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +99.7%
15t
 		+169.4%
18t
 		+60.3%
16t
 		+44.3%
11t
 		+92.9%
14t
 		+35.3%
12t
 		+86.4%
15t
 		+127.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +13,679.3%

All months for MOVR under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — MOVR — January 2025 (v4.0.1 Pythia) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
+2.2
7
—
8
-0.5
9
+5.1
10
+2.2
11
—
12
—
13
—
14
—
15
+15.9
16
—
17
—
18
+10.1
19
+1.4
20
+8.6
21
+7.9
22
—
23
—
24
+3.7
25
—
26
+7.2
27
-0.9
28
—
29
—
30
+9.6
31
+4.1
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +99.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 86.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.34% on 14 trades, WR 86%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 14 85.7% +4.34% +79.40% 15h
BULL 1 100.0% +15.89% +15.89% 2.6d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 15 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
$0.00 $0.00 +2.18% BUBBLE 14h
$0.00 $0.00 -0.49% BUBBLE 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +5.07% BUBBLE 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +2.20% BUBBLE 4h
$0.00 $0.00 +15.89% BULL 2.6d
$0.00 $0.00 +10.11% BUBBLE 1.5d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.38% BUBBLE 8h
$0.00 $0.00 +8.56% BUBBLE 4h
$0.00 $0.00 +7.88% BUBBLE 18h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.73% BUBBLE 1.2d
$0.00 $0.00 +7.18% BUBBLE 1.3d
$0.00 $0.00 -4.86% BUBBLE 7h
$0.00 $0.00 +4.16% BUBBLE 3h
$0.00 $0.00 +9.60% BUBBLE 1.8d
$0.00 $0.00 +4.08% BUBBLE 8h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
86.7% Win Rate +99.7% Return -4.9% Max Drawdown Net of Fees