Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

MOVR — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 14 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+104.8%
€10,000 →
€20,482
Win Rate
85.4%
12W / 2L
Trades
14
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-6.02%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
12W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+92.93%
▲ +11.89
Win Rate
85.7%
▼ -0.31
Sharpe
14.82
▼ -14.82
Alpha vs B&H
+87.79pp
▼ -87.79
Max DD
-0.44%
▼ -5.58
Avg DD
-3.60%
▲ +3.60
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
14
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+104.82%
Win Rate
85.4%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-6.02%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
V2.5.8.3
Return
+50.72%
▲ +54.10
Win Rate
93.3%
▼ -7.90
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.11%
▼ -5.91
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
15
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

MOVR

MOVR Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +99.7%
15t
 		+169.4%
18t
 		+60.3%
16t
 		+44.3%
11t
 		+92.9%
14t
 		+35.3%
12t
 		+86.4%
15t
 		+127.7%
13t
—
—
—
—
 +13,679.3%

All months for MOVR under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — MOVR — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
0.0
6
—
7
—
8
—
9
—
10
+34.4
11
—
12
+7.1
13
—
14
+6.1
15
+0.3
16
—
17
+1.8
18
+3.9
19
—
20
+2.6
21
—
22
+6.8
23
+2.1
24
-0.4
25
—
26
+1.4
27
—
28
+8.8
29
+1.9
30
—
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +104.8% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 85.4% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +9.58% on 5 trades, WR 80%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BULL 5 80.0% +9.58% +53.16% 1.4d
BUBBLE 9 88.9% +3.20% +32.41% 20h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 14 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 May 2025 02:00 05 May 2025 08:00 $6.09 $6.11 -0.02% BULL 7h
06 May 2025 13:00 10 May 2025 22:00 $5.94 $8.01 +34.41% BULL 4.4d
11 May 2025 13:00 12 May 2025 13:00 $7.77 $8.34 +7.07% BULL 1d
13 May 2025 04:00 14 May 2025 02:00 $7.68 $8.17 +6.13% BULL 23h
15 May 2025 13:00 15 May 2025 19:00 $7.32 $7.35 +0.30% BULL 7h
17 May 2025 02:00 17 May 2025 04:00 $7.06 $7.20 +1.75% BUBBLE 3h
18 May 2025 02:00 18 May 2025 23:00 $7.12 $7.42 +3.87% BUBBLE 22h
19 May 2025 12:00 20 May 2025 10:00 $6.87 $7.08 +2.59% BUBBLE 23h
20 May 2025 23:00 22 May 2025 18:00 $7.23 $7.74 +6.79% BUBBLE 1.8d
23 May 2025 12:00 23 May 2025 14:00 $7.40 $7.57 +2.10% BUBBLE 3h
24 May 2025 03:00 24 May 2025 11:00 $7.26 $7.24 -0.38% BUBBLE 9h
25 May 2025 09:00 26 May 2025 13:00 $6.90 $7.02 +1.43% BUBBLE 1.2d
27 May 2025 02:00 28 May 2025 01:00 $7.00 $7.63 +8.83% BUBBLE 24h
28 May 2025 15:00 29 May 2025 09:00 $7.33 $7.48 +1.85% BUBBLE 19h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
85.4% Win Rate +104.8% Return -6.0% Max Drawdown Net of Fees